Models ?

[stag]

Hi everyone. I want to start out by saying I am new and am not a meteorologist. I want to apologize in advance if my questions/topics are too simplistic and may not make sense. I am just a life long weather enthusiast.

I was wondering typically how long after the NAO/AO start going negative does it begin to show up in the models ? I have been reading about them going negative for a bit , yet my local weather (northern michigan) seems to remain very mild.

I was also wondering if possibly climate change may be affecting things. Is it possible that in a warmer overall world, the indices/models may not pan out as accurately as before ?

Once again, sorry for my lack of knowledge. But I do have a passion. Thanks

P.S. Also looking for best place to see indices and models.

[stag]

Sorry. Did i do something wrong ?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nope. Your question was better suited to this forum.

[wxmeddler]

Hi everyone. I want to start out by saying I am new and am not a meteorologist. I want to apologize in advance if my questions/topics are too simplistic and may not make sense. I am just a life long weather enthusiast.

I was wondering typically how long after the NAO/AO start going negative does it begin to show up in the models ? I have been reading about them going negative for a bit , yet my local weather (northern michigan) seems to remain very mild.

I was also wondering if possibly climate change may be affecting things. Is it possible that in a warmer overall world, the indices/models may not pan out as accurately as before ?

Once again, sorry for my lack of knowledge. But I do have a passion. Thanks

P.S. Also looking for best place to see indices and models.

Hi there Stag! Welcome to AmericanWx.

Models can "see" the NAO/AO trend coming up usually 7-10 days in advance. The easiest way to see the trend is from the CPC site in the link below. The red lines indicate possible strengths of the NAO and the black line shows the history of the strength of the NAO.

http://www.cpc.ncep....nk/pna/nao.shtm

To answer your second question, the NAO does NOT impact your day to day weather, things like regional high/low pressure systems will control your local weather. The strength and mode (+ or -) of the NAO will just make it more or less probable that you will experience certain conditions. Short term oscillations in the strength and mode of the NAO on the order of days will not have a significant impact on weather down in the United States. It takes a moderate-long term (week-weeks) swing in the NAO in one direction or the other to start moving weather systems around so that things like monthly average temperatures get changed. On top of this, the NAO is not the only game in town, there is El Nino/La Nina, the PNA, the AO, the MJO, the PDO and to some extent the MJO that all also have an influence in changing the probabilities in seeing a different type of weather pattern.

About the connection to global warming, there is no solid connection between global warming and the weekly/monthly NAO. There is ongoing research on about if there is a potential connection to the NAO and other oscillations around the globe in the long term. But on a daily, weekly and monthly scale, it will not have an impact on your weather. Also, engineers and scientists are always looking to make the models make a better forecast, if the global warming is indeed are causing a increase in error (which I haven't seen so far) they will continue to tweak the models in order to compensate for the changing climate variables.

All of the above has way more complex meanings and theories that some of the board members here specialize in. Browse some of the sub-forums and check out the mid to long term weather discussion threads if you want to learn more.