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Why not a Severe Thunderstorm Warning?


weunice

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Just curious ... a TSTM warning was issued closer to Sinks Canyon State Park earlier than this but it seems to me that is pretty far away ...

with a report of ...

80 MPH. 10 NNE MOOSE, WY AT 18:15 (UTC) *** 3 INJ *** DMG OCCURRED AT JACKSON LAKE LODGE. WINDS BLEW OUT LARGE WINDOWS. BLEW DOWN TREES

Here was the SWS for it ...

WYZ012_014-023_028-292131- * FOR JACKSON HOLE WY * UNTIL ...*+++ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 WYZ012>014-023>028-292131- JACKSON HOLE-ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER- SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-STAR VALLEY- TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN- UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST- 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SUDDEN...DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. REPORTS OF BUILDING DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE JACKSON VALLEY WITH STORM ACTIVITY. PERSONS ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY SHOULD FIND A STURDY INDOOR SHELTER WITH APPROACHING STORMS AND TRY TO AVOID WINDOWS IN INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND. PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON WITH ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT 800 2 4 1 - 1 4 4 8. THANK YOU. $ BRANHAM TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 000DEG 00KT 4348 11076

Are wind gusts in the mountains like this difficult to predict or does a lack of precip make it difficult to spot on radar?

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Just curious ... a TSTM warning was issued closer to Sinks Canyon State Park earlier than this but it seems to me that is pretty far away ...

with a report of ...

80 MPH. 10 NNE MOOSE, WY AT 18:15 (UTC) *** 3 INJ *** DMG OCCURRED AT JACKSON LAKE LODGE. WINDS BLEW OUT LARGE WINDOWS. BLEW DOWN TREES

Here was the SWS for it ...

WYZ012_014-023_028-292131- * FOR JACKSON HOLE WY * UNTIL ...*+++ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 WYZ012>014-023>028-292131- JACKSON HOLE-ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER- SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-STAR VALLEY- TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN- UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST- 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SUDDEN...DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. REPORTS OF BUILDING DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE JACKSON VALLEY WITH STORM ACTIVITY. PERSONS ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY SHOULD FIND A STURDY INDOOR SHELTER WITH APPROACHING STORMS AND TRY TO AVOID WINDOWS IN INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND. PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON WITH ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT 800 2 4 1 - 1 4 4 8. THANK YOU. $ BRANHAM TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 000DEG 00KT 4348 11076

Are wind gusts in the mountains like this difficult to predict or does a lack of precip make it difficult to spot on radar?

Maybe they're not used to issuing those types of warnings out there, but once you get a damage report, a warning should be issued, regardless of whether or not there was an observed gust.

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Just curious ... a TSTM warning was issued closer to Sinks Canyon State Park earlier than this but it seems to me that is pretty far away ...

with a report of ...

80 MPH. 10 NNE MOOSE, WY AT 18:15 (UTC) *** 3 INJ *** DMG OCCURRED AT JACKSON LAKE LODGE. WINDS BLEW OUT LARGE WINDOWS. BLEW DOWN TREES

Here was the SWS for it ...

WYZ012_014-023_028-292131- * FOR JACKSON HOLE WY * UNTIL ...*+++ SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 WYZ012>014-023>028-292131- JACKSON HOLE-ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER- SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-STAR VALLEY- TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN- UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST- 146 PM MDT WED JUN 29 2011 SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SUDDEN...DAMAGING WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. REPORTS OF BUILDING DAMAGE HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN THE JACKSON VALLEY WITH STORM ACTIVITY. PERSONS ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY SHOULD FIND A STURDY INDOOR SHELTER WITH APPROACHING STORMS AND TRY TO AVOID WINDOWS IN INSTANCES OF STRONG WIND. PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RIVERTON WITH ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AT 800 2 4 1 - 1 4 4 8. THANK YOU. $ BRANHAM TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 000DEG 00KT 4348 11076

Are wind gusts in the mountains like this difficult to predict or does a lack of precip make it difficult to spot on radar?

1815 UTC is 1215 pm MDT. This statement was put out 90 minutes after the event time on the LSR (and actually before the LSR was issued). The life cycle of a thunderstorm is much less than 90 minutes, and the office would not be issuing warnings on a particular storm that far after the fact without intervening reports, or a good radar signature.

Second point would be that the location of the report is about 110 miles away from the closest radars (Riverton and Pocatello). You aren't going to get a real good look at storm structure that far away. Maybe no more than 3 or 4 elevation cuts before overshooting the storm.

Not having viewed the radar in question, or a proximity sounding, I won't guess what did or did not happen.

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