brooklynwx99

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Absolutely..well said.  Its important to acknowledge that there was some bad luck involved, too. As fleeting and few and far between as they were, we had some explosive windows that went for not.

last winter also could have ended much differently if that mid-Feb storm did indeed produce that huge wave breaking -NAO that was advertised by every model at range. easy to forget that as well... that was a complete modeling disaster. probably the worst i've seen

holy crap

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does.

JMHO.

only a matter of time until we see positive regression to the mean. a lot of us forget how prolific the 2000s and 2010s were since we were living through them. the 70s and 80s were way more futile than this stretch

NYC had ONE winter over 30" between 1969-70 and 1992-93, which was 1977-78. one! could you imagine now? people would be jumping from rooftops. yes, there were less complete duds and it was colder overall, but I will take the duds if it means more 40"+ winters

btw, this absolutely could be a high ACE Atlantic hurricane season. could even be hyperactive. CSU's hurricane forecast is pretty dire

On 5/16/2024 at 10:38 AM, snowman19 said:

95-96 was not only weak, it was a very atypical Niña because it had a +PDO. That is why Joe Bastardi is wishcasting a +PDO so hard right now….he is dying for any excuse to say it’s an “analog” so he can add it to his already predetermined list of 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 for this winter. It’s also the reason why he’s hyping a super high ACE Atlantic tropical season with recurves. Anything to predict another very cold and very snowy winter for the east coast 

the only reason it's even a consideration is because it was a moderate Nina (three trimonthlies of -1.0) that came off of a moderate Nino and it has some similarities in the Atlantic for this summer and autumn. it's not weighted high, and there's no reason why any analog should be completely discounted at this range when it's a similar ENSO state. I don't even expect a snowy winter. it'll probably be AN temps and BN snow for the east

also, anyone that's certain about how strong the Nina is going to be and how it'll configure itself is fooling themselves. it isn't even June yet

1988-89, 1995-96, 1998-99, 2005-06, 2010-11, 2019-20, and 2020-21 are all fine analogs for now IMO. no real way to know which are better than others at this point given that we don't even know how the Nina is going to evolve at this point

for the record, I am not expecting a good winter for the East. however, the two things that can help are a bit of Nino lag (helped in 95-96 and 2010-11 most notably) and high ACE, both of which likely have some kind of impact. we can just as easily see another dud, which is safer to expect

the rubber band does have to snap back at some point... positive regression to the mean is pretty much imminent. would be ironic if we do see one of the good Nina winters in a year where people are expecting so little

trough on the EPS is deeper with stronger blocking

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm. and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

someone is going to get crushed. I would feel a lot better if I was in Boston

also, lol

and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Unless all of the cold remains in Eruasia...

verbatim, some pretty stout cross polar flow develops. again, I would like to see it get closer, but it would work 

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That was preceded by an arctic outbreak with temps near freezing for 4-5 days prior.   Temps like that are unlikely this year

IF the TPV gets displaced like some of the OP runs have shown, I'll buy it. big if for now, but with the ongoing SSW and Pacific wave breaking, it is a possibility. would be silly to totally dismiss it

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

March 1973 also had a late cool down and a touch of snow, which is by far the best analog this month IMO.

hell, even 1998 had a late season event followed by a week of 80s. it was NYC's only snow of the winter

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There are hints that perhaps there could be more arctic air involved in the pattern after March 20 or so...but so much would have to go perfectly at that point for it to matter.  There is a reason there are VERY few examples of significant snow that late in the DC Baltimore area.  For places with higher elevations, you know who you are, there are somewhat better chances late March and early April.  

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

lol. if there was to be a dumb late season event, this would be the pattern you’d need to pull it off

this ain’t bad… blocked flow to the north, a 50/50 in place, and strong HP to the north to allow colder air to drain in. again, something to keep an eye on, especially away from the immediate coast

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

He’s not though. It’s a fair assessment imo. One thing is for sure though, we're taking ditty to the woodshed and spanking his bare fanny with empty beer bottles. 

if this was Jan, i’d probably can the risk, but March is stupid and this could easily just cut off and dump

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air

i would like to see more of a cutoff signature, as AN heights over Nova Scotia usually aren’t the best for late season storms. however, teleconnections aren’t quite as useful as they are in mid-Jan due to shorter wavelengths. there’s also some nice HP to the north. something to watch, but I would lower expectations given a lack of ample cold air 

for reference, this MECS occurred four days afterwards. lmao

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

You are unbelievably arrogant and pompous. I would expect no less 

oh yeah? this you?

@Allsnow must have been nice digging out from 18” and then 6” over the next two weeks 

i don't really see the point in posting about a warm ass pattern, either. hence why I come off as cold biased... i only really post about things that look conducive for winter weather. i don't see any interesting about 7-10 days of AN with this pattern. most posters are like this

like what is there to say about this other than warm and boring? lmao

@snowman19 also, I am aware that the advertised pattern fell through. it's annoying, but there were also a lot of other meteorologists that were excited at the possibilities, and rightfully so. you should find some respected mets on Twitter or even on this forum and shit on them too, while you're at it. sometimes the models just do a really bad job. hell, they couldn't even figure out the Feb 15th storm a day in advance

you have also had your fair share of complete fails (as does every other person that forecasts the weather for an extended period of time), but you don't see me ready to pounce on you for it. i also don't put words in your mouth either, but you're just here in bad faith, so i can't expect anything less