lookingnorth

Yeah, we had a couple good weeks in January, and a decent snow in February, but overall this winter was unimpressive. At least we weren't setting records for winter warmth like they were further north.

Doesn't feel much like winter today, with much of Oklahoma getting into the upper 80s, and the southern part of the state having some areas in the 90s.

The mountains do block radar coverage, but it looks decent around Lake Tahoe, assuming this map is correct.

3 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Headed for the 4th warmest February on record for the US.  If AI can improve our long range modeling then I'm all for it cuz the CPC Seasonals didn't show this coming.  I'm at the point where I don't trust a forecast whether it is from the CPC, WPC, NOAA, NWS or any other acronym you want to toss out. They're all wrong.  I'm seriously going to dig out the Farmer's Almanac this afternoon and see if that was even close.   

I find the CPC is usually pretty good on their 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Getting accurate forecasts beyond 14 days out is just extremely hard.

On 2/16/2024 at 7:00 AM, eyewall said:

I believe being blanked two winters in a row would be a first for Raleigh.

I believe it's happened twice before. 1990-91 and 1991-92 each only had a trace of snow. Same with 1948-49 and 1949-50. But the third time in over 120 years of records is still pretty bad.

It looks like the Antarctic sea ice extent gap is down to 187,000 km^2.

Only got an inch of snow in Norman that was almost all gone by the next morning.

Yeah California has gotten a lot of rain and storms lately. I saw lightning flying into San Diego before Christmas, which is somewhat unusual for them.

We got barely any snow in the Norman/OKC area from the cold blast, and the coming couple weeks don't look that interesting either. I hope we see something good in late February/early March.

I got some surprise flurries today at least.

It looks like December 2023 had the fourth greatest positive temperature anomaly of any month in the UAH dataset, with the three hotter months being this past September-November.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/

The MJO doesn't look too favorable for cold and snow in the coming couple weeks.

Here are the current CPC forecast maps for DJF, as a reference.

21 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Several observations about this graph...

1  it's too bad the x-axis ticks stop at 20 year intervals. I'd like see which months these individual points correspond to. I'm wondering (say) if the spikes are more common in the autumns.  Or perhaps spikes in general are more common during transition seasons. 

2 there is a "similar" magnitude lurch upwards in global temperature that took place just prior 1880 in terms of total d(T).  There are also rather impressive dips that some 80 or even 90% of this Septembers scalar delta that took place 1900, 1960 ... 1995 (Pinatubo?)    ... Anyway, 80% of 1::10000 chance of occurrence seems too steep considering what's taken place several times in the last 150 years.   

It depends though ... The 'odds of occurrence' may fall in some sort of log(x) decay ... Such that the top 20 or 10%s compared to the bottom 80, the odds get very long.

3 regardless, the trend is alarming.  There were two accelerations: a modest one around the 1930s; the one since 1980 is fascinating in that the low points along the accelerated rise, are usually about the same as the previous high point - hence the 45 deg slope.  But, what that means is there is never a step back.  wow

There was a major El Nino in the late 1870s, that's probably the explanation for the spike in 1877 September temperature.

It's up to 102°F in OKC and 103°F in Norman, the hottest September temperatures here since 2012, and the hottest I have personally experienced as I was living in North Carolina back in 2012.

While the heat has eased up somewhat the past few days (thankfully), we could really use some rain. Most of the state has not seen a drop of rain in the past two weeks. Most of the OKC metro has seen less than an inch of rain in the past seven weeks. We haven't even had a cloudy day in quite some time. The long stretches of hot, dry, sunny weather really get to me after a while.

The lower humidity today made it feel almost nice, despite a temperature of 96° and dewpoint still at 66°.

It's been a hot summer in the OKC area, but not as bad as last year. We're only at thirteen 100-degree days, compared to last year's 24, and far from the 2011 record of 63.

Regardless of whether or not the sea ice values are normally distributed in a natural climate state (it's not something I've really looked into), this year is still clearly below all the other years in the satellite dataset for this time.

I like the topic idea. I am enrolled in a course on atmospheric radiation currently, and it is interesting learning about how aerosols influence atmospheric conditions. I have heard it claimed that the May 20, 2019 severe weather outbreak was weakened due to dust aerosols from further west. But I'm not a huge expert on the topic.

I've also heard it said that switching from coal to natural gas may not be as beneficial in reducing climate change as people had hoped, because the aerosols from coal combustion help cool the climate and counteract some of the CO2 emissions from burning coal. But those aerosols still have negative direct effects on human health, so it is still better to switch.

It looks like Raleigh and Greensboro both wound up with a trace as per the official records.

16 hours ago, Chinook said:

confirmed tornado passed US77 highway on the south side of Norman

That thing hit about a mile from my house. I know some people who sustained minor damage from the tornado. Luckily I was okay and avoided any damage and didn't even lose power.

Dewpoints are pushing 60 across most of Oklahoma currently. That's solid moisture for this time of year.

I got a slight glaze but nothing substantial.

It looks like the most recent runs of the NAM and HRRR have cut back somewhat on the precipitation amounts for the OKC area tomorrow night.

For the Monday event, the NAM has been consistent in showing snow over western Oklahoma, with less in the OKC and Tulsa metros. NWS Norman mentioned a lot of uncertainty in their morning forecast discussion.

Quote

An early season winter weather event still appears on track to
affect the area on Monday, but there are still a number of key
details to be worked out regarding where and how much snow will
fall. Models agree that a compact shortwave will move quickly
eastward into west Texas Monday morning, with ascent increasing
rapidly in our area as it does so. The shortwave will be weakening
over time as it phases with broader closed low to our north, with
forcing decreasing quickly near or after 21z Monday across much of
the area. Therefore, the vast majority of precipitation is expected
to fall during the daytime on Monday, with a fairly brief (3-6 hour)
window for snowfall at any one location.

There has been a southward shift in much of the model guidance over
the last 24 hours, along with a trend towards a weaker shortwave as
it crosses into Oklahoma. Most hi-res model guidance has converged
on a swath of heavier QPF from western/west-central OK southeastward
into southern OK, while the ECM/GFS and their respective ensembles
remain a bit further north and east centered more along the I-40
corridor.

With thermal profiles initially too warm for snow outside of
northwest Oklahoma and surface wet-bulb temperatures at or above
freezing, heavy precipitation rates will be needed to cool the
column sufficiently for accumulating snow. Therefore, the placement
of this band will likely be the key determining factor for who sees
several inches of heavy wet snow and who sees little more than a
light rain/snow mix with minimal accumulation. We have adjusted our
snowfall forecast southward from the previous forecast and increased
amounts within the band of heavier precipitation, though our
forecast is likely too broad with accumulating snow (especially
across north-central Oklahoma) and may be too conservative on
maximum amounts due to remaining uncertainty. As of now our highest
amounts (2-3") are across northwestern OK southeastward into central
OK, but it is possible further adjustments southward will be needed
if trends continue. Of note, many of the latest hi-res models
produce little to no snow accumulation for portions of central and
north-central Oklahoma, including parts of the OKC metro, as the
heavier precipitation fails to make it north and east during the
day Monday before forcing wanes. All in all, forecast confidence
remains low and users are advised to check back for further
updates.