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Lowershoresadness

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Posts posted by Lowershoresadness

  1. Ok, I got a big forecast round-up. This is for both sides of the bay. Quite a bit of spread in these forecasts:

     

     

    TWC: 3-5" everyone.

     

    Accuweather: 3-6" Calvert and Charles, 1-3" St. Mary's and all of the lower eastern shore.

     

    DT (1st call): 6-10" for most of us, with a 10"+ blob that reaches parts of northeast Calvert and all of DE

     

    LWX: 4-6" for Charles, Calvert and northern half of St. Mary's. 3-4" for southern half of St. Mary's.

     

    CWG: 4-7" for for Charles, Calvert and northen half of St. Mary's. 1-4" for southern half of St. Mary's and the lower eastern shore.

     

    Justin Berk (first call): 6+ inches northern half of Charles and Calvert, Ice and 3+ inches for southern half of Charles and Calvert, all of St. Mary's, Dorchester, Salisbury and southern DE. Ice and 1-3" south and east of Salisbury.

     

    Ava Marie (WBAL): 6" in Charles, 7-8" everyone else.

     

    Ellinwood: Mostly 4-8", with lower St. Mary's (around NHK) and anything south of Salisbury in 2-4"

    Thanks Noreastericane for putting that together. I'm just going to flip a coin and guess my amounts lol. I feel for the forecasters trying to guess on the timing of this mess.

  2. This system is quite interesting and kind of rare. It's essentially a cold front. It will all depend on the timing of the cold air. If it can get through here in time we could see a significant snowstorm. I like the GFS lately with predicting snows and it gives most of us at least 4 inches, not the 12z GFS, I think that's too snowy. I think the NAM is too far north and so is the GGEM. We will see how things pan out on the 00z runs. Hopefully nothing trends toward the NAM. 

     I hope the bury sees one more good snow but

    3v2r28.jpg

  3. Semi-enthusiastic due to the ENSO. Looks like it is transitioning into central-based, also known as Modoki El Nino. This configuration includes years such as 2003 and 2005. With the 1930's pattern, we may have a strong signal shifted east instead of confined to the gulf.

     

    Given the lag between ENSO and atmospheric response, the true red meat season may not come until 2016. Something like 2014 with more landfalls is definitely possible, which would resemble a fairly active season.

    Thanks for your thoughts. A lack of activity makes for a long summer. Hopefully we can get some long track Cape Verde systems going without the damn shear tearing them apart

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