Logan11

The bottom has dropped out here. Down to -7F. I think we are supposed to get clouds later as a trough moves by....to end this free fall.

I think all the snow cover can insulate away some of the arctic attack.....lose power..then its a big problem very fast.... I worry about this in multiple places as you know each winter..hope to be in town Monday or Tuesday.. - In southern Maine we are being punished for the mild winter of 09-10 this month....

Sean

btw 12572 zip forecasted 5 f for the lows overnight.... already 3 and not thinking it will be much warmer around midnight.....

Hey Sean...glad you found your way over to this new BB . Wow Re: that -7F. I hope the pipes haven't already had a problem there - but no bad news from the tenant. Tomorrow night definitely looks frigid. Hope we get a good storm next week then.

Rick it was forecasted at +7 for the Rhinebeck area last night... but our low (milan FD rt 308) -8F . THAT IS A HUGE BUST...

Before we get to the storm....we have the bitter cold tomorrow night and Monday. I wonder how far below zero it will get in the Mid Hudson Valley. The NWS point forecast says -7F in Saugerties. I am considering going down and putting a space heater in the garage underneath our small house in Saugerties that we rent out. The coldest I have recorded there this January was -2F so it isn't the greatest radiational spot, but tomorrow night looks colder. Back in the super cold winter of 1994, we recorded -24F at that location. My all time record there was -26F in January 1982. In that 1994 outbreak some people in the coldest hollows of Saugerties had -30F.

Nuisance light snow here also ...all morning to varying degrees. A temprature of 30.7F with little movement since 8 AM. A half inch or a bit more of this on top of the sleet covering.

But it is a beautful sight out there...true winter.

Light snow falling now.

A FAIL for this event really.. ....2" of snow/sleet on the ground here as it winds down now. Very little FZRA fell so I guess that is a win. At times the sleet had a little mixed in, but not enough for any ice acretion other than the slightest glaze. 27F out there now.

I've been using a pick on the ice in my stone driveway

I really hope that we get above freezing long enough tomorrow to work on the ice rink aka my driveway.

22 and light sleet continues. I see a better batch of precipitation is coming north out of the Mid Hudson Valley.

Strange that the best echoes have actually been from the Susquehanna region, western Catskills north northeast into the Adirondacks. This qpf max was unpredicted by the models. Meanwhile a paltry .25" (qpf) at best here since this began.

27.5 F here, ZR coating everything

At this point we have very light frozen precip..snow grains and sleet probably. 18F. It really hasn't been doing much of anything since about 9:00 AM. This is starting to seem like an underwhelming event. I'm sure we haven't had more than .2" qpf so this could be a major model bust because at 0Z the NAM was forecasting around .8" and the GFS .6" here.

Agree 100%

Moderate to heavy snow here and 16F. at 8:00 AM. About 2" on the ground. I just woke up so not sure when it started.

My temp is slowly rising here. Started at 16 and heavy snow for a few hours then as the temp approached 20 it changed to sleet. It's been sleeting now for almost two hours and, well, yuck Temp now is 21 at the house and 24 down on Rt 6 with heavy sleet. What are the chances it gets above freezing at the surface?

If the NAM qpf verifies ...I hope you guys have generators and chain saws ready in the Mid Hudson Valley. I think we are mainly dealing with a sleet threat here after the snow....

0Z NAM sounding, the model initilized with 2M temps at 14F, 5 degrees lower than the KSWF temp of 19F. Most of the county is at 19F and has been for awhile.. Not sure if this means anything overall.

Station ID: KSWF Lat: 41.50 Long: -74.09

NAM Model Run: 0Z JAN 18, 2011

Forecast Hours: 0hr 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr 30hr 36hr 42hr 48hr 54hr 60hr 66hr

Sfc Prs(mb): 1008.5 1006.6 999.2 991.8 986.3 984.7 986.6 988.2 993.1 997.6 1000.9 1000.5

Mean SLP (mb): 1028.1 1026.2 1018.7 1010.6 1004.9 1003.3 1005.4 1006.8 1012.0 1016.9 1020.5 1019.8

2m agl Tmp (F): 14.4 15.0 24.4 32.4 34.0 31.6 29.2 33.4 26.6 20.4 15.9 23.7

2m agl Dewpt(F): 5.5 9.6 23.2 31.5 33.7 30.6 27.9 29.9 22.8 15.7 10.6 17.5

2m agl RH (%): 67 79 95 97 99 96 95 87 85 81 79 77

10m agl Dir: 109 98 80 81 9 311 290 303 309 303 305 299

10m agl Spd(kt): 4 6 10 10 8 9 7 8 11 11 8 7

6hr Precip (in): 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.51 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 MAZ001-NYZ041-043-048>054-058-063-083-084-180530- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0003.110118T1000Z-110119T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0003.110118T0500Z-110119T1200Z/ NORTHERN BERKSHIRE-NORTHERN SARATOGA-NORTHERN WASHINGTON- WESTERN SCHENECTADY-EASTERN SCHENECTADY-SOUTHERN SARATOGA- WESTERN ALBANY-EASTERN ALBANY-WESTERN RENSSELAER- EASTERN RENSSELAER-WESTERN GREENE-WESTERN ULSTER-SOUTHEAST WARREN- SOUTHERN WASHINGTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PITTSFIELD...NORTH ADAMS... SARATOGA SPRINGS...WHITEHALL...GRANVILLE...DELANSON...ESPERANCE... DUANESBURG...SCHENECTADY...ROTTERDAM...BALLSTON SPA... MECHANICVILLE...WATERFORD...ALTAMONT...ALBANY...TROY... HOOSICK FALLS...HUNTER...TANNERSVILLE...WINDHAM...SUNDOWN... ELLENVILLE...WOODSTOCK...WEST HURLEY...KERHONKSON...NAPANOCH... PHOENICIA...GLENS FALLS...WEST GLENS FALLS...HUDSON FALLS... FORT EDWARD...CAMBRIDGE...GREENWICH

423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS...NORTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS: MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET...MIXING AT TIMES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...POSSIBLY ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLY 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG WITH AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

* TIMING: FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WHERE WET SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MIGHT BRING DOWN SOME TREE BRANCHES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES: STARTING OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES...RISING TO AROUND FREEZING MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.

* WINDS: GENERALLY WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 CTZ001-013-MAZ025-NYZ059>061-064>066-180530- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0003.110118T1000Z-110119T1200Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0003.110118T0500Z-110119T1200Z/ NORTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE- EASTERN GREENE-WESTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN COLUMBIA-EASTERN ULSTER- WESTERN DUTCHESS-EASTERN DUTCHESS

- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TORRINGTON...OAKVILLE...NEW MILFORD... TERRYVILLE...GREAT BARRINGTON...LEE...LENOX...HOUSATONIC... CATSKILL...COXSACKIE...ATHENS...CAIRO...JEFFERSON HEIGHTS... HUDSON...CHATHAM...KINGSTON...NEW PALTZ...POUGHKEEPSIE...BEACON... ARLINGTON...PAWLING...DOVER PLAINS...MILLBROOK...PINE PLAINS... AMENIA...MILLERTON

423 PM EST MON JAN 17 2011 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS: THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT...AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES OF MASSACHUSETTS.

* HAZARDS: SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...POSSIBLY ENDING AS FREEZING DRIZZLE.

* ACCUMULATIONS: POSSIBLY 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MIXED WITH SLEET ALONG WITH ONE QUARTER TO NEAR A HALF INCH OF ICE ACCRETION.

* TIMING: FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS: TRAVEL COULD BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. ALSO THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES WHERE WET SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN MIGHT BRING DOWN SOME TREES...BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES: STARTING OUT BETWEEN 10 TO 20 DEGREES...RISING TO AROUND FREEZING MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT.

* WINDS: GENERALLY WILL BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

We had modest LES bands in and out all night. 0.6 of an inch dusting. So that didn't allow it to get below 10F.

I drove down to Kingston this morning and noticed the trees covered in hoar frost in places where it must have got quite low.

Yeah sure I was out around 9:30pm and it was clear but still breezy.

I checked the station at the 911 center and their low was 12F so something stopped the drop in this area.

Old news, but my final here was 8.7". Another moderate sized event here, however they add up and 37" for the season so can't say it has been snowless.

And yes the Berkshires got crushed... Savoy at 41" seems to be the jackpot. As Andy noted in the other thread, the NWS ALB is heading to that area tomorrow to confirm for a possible 24 hour record.

Any reports from the Berkshires? I used to live in Williamstown and am thinking that corridor may have taken the grand prize for the storm.

Closing in on 7 inches here....long duration of mainly light snow (occasionally moderate) has added up to a respectable number. Steady snow moved back in here lately ...maybe southwest rotating around the low circulation.

So another ENY scraper and NE bomb....

9.5" for the event. The steady light snow that has been falling finally down to flurries now with the sun dimly shining through the clouds.

IMO this is another one heading for the snow bulls eye of the Hudson Valley and Catskills. I think when all is said and done LI has P-type issues. Maybe NYC stays all snow....

Got down to 10 last night. Now the eyes turn to the Tues-Wed event. Looks to be trending closer to the coast. Nice write-up by OKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

405 PM EST SAT JAN 8 2011

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY INCREASING...

LOOKING AT THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS A

SOUTHERN/EASTERN OUTLIER...AND THE 9Z SREF A NORTHERN/WESTERN

OUTLIER WITH THE STORM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND

ECWMF. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN TRACKS THE STORM OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK

AT 6Z WEDNESDAY...WITH ECMWF JUST TO THE NW OF THE BENCHMARK AT 12Z

WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS HAVE OPTED FOR A ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN

BLEND FOR THE EXTENDED. OTHER THAN THE SREF SOLUTION...THERE IS A

CLEAR CONSENSUS FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT...WITH THIS IDEA BEING

FOLLOWED.

THE FIRST PART OF THE STORM...A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN

AZ...IS WELL RESOLVED BY LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS...AND IS HANDLED

FAIRLY SIMILARLY BY ALL MODELS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE EQUATION

ENERGY FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY

TONIGHT/SUNDAY IS STILL OVER THE NE PACIFIC...SO HOPEFULLY EITHER

THE 00Z OR 12Z SUNDAY BALLOON LAUNCHES WILL CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AND

PROVIDE INCREASED CONFIDENCE. THE GFS IS A FAST/SHEARED OUTLIER WITH

THIS SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM

RIDGING THAT MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY SHARPLY ENOUGH (THIS IS A

KNOWN GFS BIAS - NOT SHARPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ENOUGH). THE

RESULT IS A MORE SOUTHERN/EASTERN SOLUTION IN THE GFS. THE OTHER

MODELS HANDLE THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BETTER...SO HAVE THE SETUP FOR

A LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTENSIFYING MORE THAN THE

GFS.

BASED ON THE ABOVE HAVE CHANCE POPS SW 1/2...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NE

1/2 OF AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY THROUGHOUT

BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALL

BUT FAR NW ZONES...WHERE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING GIVES PRUDENCE TO

HIGH END CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. TAPER POPS OFF FROM NW TO SE INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THURSDAY BEING DRY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS AMOUNTS...THE POTENTIAL IS

INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT TO VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE

REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION IS

CORRECT...THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS...WHICH

WOULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE

FOR THIS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THIS LATTER IDEA IS THE

LOWEST CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THIS

WILL ENHANCE WORDING IN THE HWO...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW - EMPHASIZING THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS

IDEA IS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR NOW.

STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...BUT GIVEN SOLID

CONSISTENCY OF GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION OVER THE PAST FEW

DAYS...AND THE ECMWF OVER ITS PAST FEW RUNS...CONFIDENCE IN A WINTER

STORM...POSSIBLY A MAJOR ONE...IS INCREASING IN THE LATE

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. STAY TUNED.

Still snowing good here now...echoes coming nw out of CT. Much slower start up here, but definitely over 4 inches now. I'll go measure soon. 19F.

25.3/22 picked up 5.8" today. Wonder what is going to happen tomorrow.

3" here now ..still snowing here ...some moderate bursts.

I was down as far as POU today and they had 4" when I left at 2:30 PM. I thought the most impressive snow was around northern Dutchess and southern Columbia around 4:30 PM. They probably got a good 6" total.... Also they still had a good amount of the old Noreaster snow left...can't be sure but maybe 4, 5, 6 inches survived the torch.

4.8" final here.. Lgt Snow stuck around for a better part of the day.

That was a fun storm. I got 46 inches total here. 19" in event #1 and 27" in event #2. But ALB got like a foot in event #1 and 98% rain in event #2.

Amazing differences over a short distances...

I live 3 miles south of the airport, and have a little more elevation (350 feet here) and I had 22 inches on top of the 7 inches a few days earlier, and I had depths of nearly 30 inches in my front yard... 3 miles north of me, I would say that they had 10 inches at best. Another 3 miles north, 4 inches. I actually think that Fishkill and Beacon ended up with more than me!

That's cool... I like to take the Taconic up from NYC sometimes and yeah you lose all the traffic after like route 55 in Dutchess County. I like to stop at the Martindale Chief Diner where route 23 crosses in Columbia County.

I guess you get off at route 82 (near that Taghkanic Diner). Sometimes I get off there and take 82 into 23 over the RVW Bridge and then 23 to 32 north and up over the Helderbergs Hill Towns to home.

I grew up in Buffalo, and my family tells me I now live "downstate", yet to City folk, I live "upstate". Can someone please tell me where I live?!?!?

As an interesting commuting aside, I do a bit of a "reverse commute", going from POU to Catskill, NY, and there are times when I'm on the Taconic where I don't pass a single car during an almost 45 mile commute. I almost took a job in White Plains which is just as far, but a totally different commute.

Dunno, but POU climo records are kept by the NWS in Albany. Maybe on their website someplace: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/aly/

But generally they give the snowfall for a winter season as in 2009-10, 2010-2011. I'm sure you could access monthly climo records somewhere and compile a calendar year total.

Caveat to that: I believe the actual airport in POU got a lot less in that February storm...... Crazy storm where northern/central Dutchess had mostly rain and southernmost Dutchess mostly snow

Just a quick question for anyone here. Do we have final snow fall totals for the 2010 year-specifically Dutchess County? I have a bet with one of my kids of how much we had. I figure close to 57. We had the 30 or so in Feb. and then close to 20 here in December. Do I have a chance to win this? LOL

My family came out of Brooklyn and Queens and the diaspora began in about the 1940's. Now I have only a few cousins left Downstate. Some came Upstate such as my father and grandparents about 60 years ago. Others scattered all over. When people moved Upstate such as POU or Kingston in the 1950's they essentially became Upstaters because nobody would consider commuting back to the city. Now you have people commuting 75 + miles and tons of weekend home owners that are only part time Upstaters.

Most of my family on Long Island are shocked that we get Saturday Night Live on Saturday night 'all the way up there'. I once met one of my cousins from Suffolk County at The Garden for a concert and it blew her mind that we both got on the train at around the same time in our respected areas and then got to the City at around the same time.

I agree with the Rad Man that there are some very good posters in the NYC thread but there are also some real dolts and whiners too.

I have to go into the city on average a couple days a month. If I am really busy I will take a motel such as in Ardsley or like Bellerose, Queens and do a two day stint. I need to get documents for my research business at the courts etc. down there and some can only be obtained terrestrially. Also I occasionally have to testify in Surrogate's Court in one of the boroughs.

I can't imagine how anyone could deal with that traffic and pace of life as a regular commuter. I am adept at it .....know the city very well all over, but a couple days is all I could take. LOL

I can't tell you how happy I am when I leave it in the rear view mirror and keep driving further and further north.

Me too. They have some strong posters there as Radders said but is like reading DT's facepage page Its simply a very populated area with lots of people posting.

Honestly I'd dread doing that commute everyday. Driving? Forget it. Drive to the train, train to Hobbo, PATH, Subway I would if I had to but its like having a second job...

I'm at the point .I can;t stand going to Rockland every day now.To the guys who do the city run every day, you have my respect. .

What are you guys expecting tomorrow? 4 - 8 sounds good to me at this time.

Orange County is really a NYC bedroom area now I guess...though the west end you still see farms etc...

Traditionally POU was about the demarcation point between ALB and NYC in terms of media, services etc. and most of Ulster and northern Dutchess got their tv out of Albany. Most of us had never seen a NYC station. POU got both....

Now at some point Nielsen designated the DMA's (designated market areas) and included all of Ulster and Dutchess in NYC Metro. Slowly they just kept shoving it down our throats and putting us in the NYC zone. They dropped the ALB tv stations in much of Ulster and Dutchess. A couple years ago the city run PBS station (13) forced the long time Albany station (17) out of the two counties where they had 50 years of contributors etc. Very few people use antennas so that was basically it. Saugerties and a few towns at the north end of the counties have an exemption to get ALB nets on their cable systems also.

This extends beyond TV to every kind of service, etc....they always direct you to call south now to a Westchester or NYC #... even if you are in Saugerties (40 miles from ALB) and 105 miles from NYC.

So it goes.... but anyway I live up here now.

80% of my street by itself consist of city workers... Including myself

Distance wise ..Monroe to Manhattan is the equivalent of Smithtown to Manhattan...

Yeah though it isn't as hopeless in Wappingers as it is around Kingston to Saugerties. They lie just east of the 3000 Ft plus escarpment and once the wind goes nnw or nw like on the backside of a Noreaster...it shuts right off.

Now on the other hand my Dad worked at IBM POU and used to compare the WX.....and that extra 35+ miles inland often helped a lot with changeover situations so it isn't all bad there.

Yes, having lived here for only 1 year I can safely conclude that NW winds are not good for this area at all when it comes to sustaining decent snow intensities. .

You get downsloped to hell on any west or northwest winds there. I know having lived in Saugerties for over 30 years. But this is mainly an easterly component so shouldn't be a problem from the Hudson Valley west.

Looks like watches are up for the Catskills. Sounds like NWS Albany thinks the amount of downsloping in the upper Hudson Valley is overdone by the NAM.