KPITSnow

3 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well...that was very kind of you to think of me.  Honestly, I never had a goal.  I always just wait to see how the winter plays out whether it's good or bad.  Sunday's storm pushed a bunch of us around here over the 40" mark, so that was great.  If I had any desires left for winter it would be the very, very unlikely probability of MDT having a third consecutive March with a 12"+ snowstorm.  The funny thing is that I can barely remember anything about the big one from last year.  Now I know my weather memory is beginning to go when I cannot remember a storm like that.  Take me back to '78, '83, '93, '96 and I can give you all sorts of details about those storms still to this day.

Edit>>I did have a goal.  It was to reach 12" with the sum of all 3 storms.  I came up 0.3" short.  Oh so close.

Wait, you’ve had a foot plus storm in the month of March the last two years????

5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I thought things came back enough in the near term for widespread 4-5" amounts here and over there in Pit. It's a pretty nice powder snow here and not the really wet snow the southern tier has. Just didn't get enough of the good rates to capitalize. Still not all that bad, it's still + snowfall at least. 

Completely unscientific rule of thumb for us in the PIT forum...always forecast 2-4 inches.

Back edge rapidly approaching. Probably will end up at about 3!!!! Great!!!! 

I really wish it would have just missed us to the south. 

2 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

1.25" - This winter blows.

Every winter blows where I’m at, so

i understand how you feel. 

This is going to be another massive let down for us. 

7 minutes ago, MikeB_01 said:

Anyone else already tired of Jeff V on twitter? All I hear about it "No hype" / "No Fearcasting".  Great, that is really appreciated. Some stations are notorious for fearcasting, I get it. But come one, he didn't even start talking about accumulating snow until Friday night. He was still saying "snow shower". 

I hate when he calls everything “snowshower.”

Euro actually gives us 5 inches. That is a surprise.

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Looking good!!


.

That’s the best I’ve seen my way in awhile for this storm.

1 minute ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Latest trend went north tho....I’m hoping we can all get at least 3-4”

Which model? Everything I’m seeing shows maybe 3 inches max, maybe 4 in souther AGC. 

12 minutes ago, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

So quiet in here.....no one following better recent trends?

It is really tough for me to get excited about a 2-3 inch storm.

NAM is really bad. Super fast...it only snows for 6 hours. 1-3 at most my way and 2-4 also everywhere else.

edit: maybe 3-6 SCPA. And a bit more in SEPA. Sorry, I don’t really know where everyone on here is.

NAM is UGLY. It only snows for 6 hours. We might get 1-3 inches. Yikes.

47 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Yeah, I get why they were complaining (I think they were at historic levels of futility for snow), but everyone knew they'd play catch-up before long.

Some people just need perspective, really.  There's quite a few in the MA forum especially that would go insane living here.  I can't imagine some of those guys making it 10 years without a double-digit event.

Lol yeah, screw them. Boston has had so many foot to two foot storms recently I can’t count. The MA too...they’ve had multiple foot plus storms, and several historic storms since our last one in 2010.

Im glad that tomorrow looks like it will screw the MA at least.

1 minute ago, Burghblizz said:

I don’t think they have made a lot of bad calls this year. The Jan slop storm was almost impossible to make a good call. Would have had to go against all other forecasts.

These last couple smaller storms just happened to verify on the high end (which is great for us)

The January storm...every model the night before but the euro showed us getting close to nothing. Even that morning as it was raining we were still under a WSW for 5-8 inches. We all saw that coming a couple days out.

The quick hit we got Thursday night, the day before we had a 30% chance of snow. Thursday morning they showed less than an inch.We didn’t get a WWA until it started to snow. 

They also busted pretty low on last weeks quick hit...I think they were 1-3 then had to up to 3-6 as the stprm

progressed.

The long range HRRR gives us like 1-2 inches. I have no clue what PIT is looking at.

Well we have a WSW. I have no clue why but we do.

So they issue a WSW for this, but for the event where we got 4 inches in 4 hours last week, and it all came at the worst possible time they didn’t? They also didn’t issue the WWA Thursday night till it started snowing. 

Aybe theu know something we don’t?

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

this looks pretty healthy. why are people saying it looks strung out and weak? it has a nice solid shield of snow. strung out to me would mean patches of snow and some breaks.

It is a 10-12 hour event with .3-.5 qpf across most of the southern half of the state. Given marginal temp profiles, time of year, and not great rates, that could lead to a lot of issues with snow accumulating. 

NAM  is pretty meh for everyone in PA. 2-4, 3-5 out further east. 

GFS looks like the winner on this one. The Euro was totally out to lunch.

Just now, paweather said:

All true. I’ll take whatever it still looks juiced for a period of time. It looks like northern stream and southern stream aren’t together made be good if they were it could cut to the west. 

No I get it. For me my biggest storm of the year so far is 4 inches. At this point I’d rather it not snow than get another 2-4 inch event. Watching the euro put out foot totals 3 days in advance only to watch it move south or north all year in the last two days has really worn us down out this way.

5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Yea, it does not scream go out and buy milk.  Snow maps show 3-7" for LSV.  Similar to the 6Z Euro but a bit less especially to the North of the Turnpike where gradient takes it down fast. 

Another thing to worry about is the euro had been weaker and further south nearly every run. Two days ago it had a foot of snow up near I-80...I was too far south in Pittsburgh.

The GFS has been pretty consistent.

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

This looks far from weak and it’s March

Checking the qpf totals, outside of maybe far SE PA, it looks like a 2-4, maybe 3-5 inch event. Plus, there was the mentioned mixing issues as you get further south and it is March which you have to worry about cutting down totals if you don’t have great rates.

Just now, bubbler86 said:

Nam has the R/S line setting up just south of the Mason.  Thermal profiles are really questionable and anyone could go to slop without intensity. 

Plus, someone else said the radar looks juiced on the NAM, but it looks pretty marginal to me. Maybe I’m pretty extreme southern PA?

The whole system looks weak and strung out.

Isn’t amazing, after years of watching the GFS giving us 100 inches of snow and being wrong while the euro locks in on the correct solution, that this year the GFS has been dead on here and the euro has shown multiple big hits but been completely wrong?

Just now, ChalkHillSnowNut said:

Let’s hope we get nam’d

Looks great for you! Not so much up here!