DTWXRISK

One of the reasons why we have ENSEMBLES  Is to check the validity of the operational or deterministic models. In this case the operational 12z GFS is completely flat with only a little bit of precip in Southeast Virginia on the 12Z run.  But as I'm sure you have all seen by now the 12ZGFS ensemble looks exactly like 0z and 6z European runs....

 This should be a big clue for everybody that the operational GFS for whatever reason is still completely clueless when it comes to this system on Monday. The differences between the 12z GEFS  and the operational GFS is simply staggering at 48 hours before the event.

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

don’t want to argue with you about it because I respect you and know you are much more knowledgeable than me! I genuinely hope it holds steady with what it’s got.

 from  DC ARLINGton   perspective  I see what you mean   --  best stuff may  stay south of  you 

0Z   EPS     this is  an INCREASE ins snow  amounts  on the  eps   when compared to the last few runs  

 

0Z   OP  EURO 

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

it didn’t not cave, didn’t look any better than 12z. 0z looks worse than 6z IMO. Might end up working for you and it could work for me if I was desperate enough to drive to Cville, but barring major changes (which there could’ve) I think it’s safe to say Euro/EPS is on an island and is slowly caving.

7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO caved, for those who still care.

  18z  EPS  did NOT  cave   

DO NOT  AGREE 

 JUST IN CASE    YOU DID NOT  NOTICE... since   the time I left ...  Oct  /Nov 2016   
we have NOT  have   BIG   widespread  northeast US snowstorms---

ya know like     RDU/ GSO     to   BOS     snowstorm   big  KU  event 

we have been  close  a few times    DEC   8-10  2017     Jan 3-5   2018   March 6-8  2018    DEC 12-13 2019  

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

 

Let's revisit 7pm tomorrow to see if the changeover has not happened in Boston metro.

Haven't seen anyone here tonight say they are expecting the 10:1 snow maps.

Likewise, surely you're not claiming the SV maps you posted with 2-4" in ORH is likely.

  No   of course not   SV is   often way too conservative....   ORH     70%  chance of 10" 
 50% of  15"     25%   chance  of 18"

 JUST IN CASE    YOU DID NOT  NOTICE... since   the time I left ...  Oct  /Nov 2016   
we have NOT  have   BIG   widespread  northeast US snowstorms---

ya know like     RDU/ GSO     to   BOS     snowstorm   big  KU  event 

we have been  close  a few times    DEC   8-10  2017     Jan 3-5   2018   March 6-8  2018    DEC 12-13 2019  

   JUST IN CASE    YOU DID NOT  NOTICE... since   the time I left ...  Oct  /Nov 2016   
we have NOT  have   BIG   widespread  northeast US snowstorms---

ya know like     RDU/ GSO     to   BOS     snowstorm   big  KU  event 

we have been  close  a few times    DEC   8-10  2017     Jan 3-5   2018   March 6-8  2018    DEC 12-13 2019  

 

6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

18z EURO caved, for those who still care.

  18z  EPS  did NOT  cave

6 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

Even down this way? 

    who  ever  said that about 18z   euro    was wrong  sw va   will  do ok with this  little  event

6 hours ago, BristowWx said:

The fact that we have said “the Euro caved” more than once is like being on some alternate universe.  I am quite optimistic about this winter.  

18z   eps      did NOT   cave

13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

00z euro just tried to bring it back a little. Barely, but it’s there.

 

 

that said, this ain’t happening

  dont over react    yet

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The 10 to 1 maps are def wrong for BOS. 

I don’t think the lowest 1500-2000 feet of the 00z sounding looks realistic though for BOS at 00z. It has extremely heavy precip over them but a steep low level lapse rate despite N/NW wind. That should prob be like 32-33F paste. 

My guess would be BOS gets several sloppy/pasty inches if the euro came to fruition (and adjusting for the lowest 2k feet)

   VERY POSSIBLE....      the reason why   i said  if the   EURO  NAM soundings are correct

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

If there's a wicked CCB band through much of SNE east of I-91 still, anyone Rt 128 and west is snowing like crazy and the winds at Logan turn N, that's all I need to know especially with the trend toward slowing down. Maybe I'm totally wrong, I'm an outsider but seen many of these type of storms. That gets even Logan to 6+ maybe even 8+. 

  yes  west boston   100%  DIFFERENT 

Just now, MJO812 said:

0z Euro snowmap

   I DONT  love  the SV graphics that much  BUT at least they are     realistic  and  not full of 100%   ruyan maue   Joe bustardi  dog shit snow  weenie   
jerk off   as if I am looking at dirty pictures   snow maps 

12 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Crushing into BOS metro on 0z Euro

Jerry will like this at his next pee stop

  no one looks at the   EURO  or  0 NAM  soundings 

  DANGER WILL     WEENIE   ROBINSON DANGER

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Congrats to you Boston guys hopefully as you leap a light year ahead of NYC in snowfall. Such a cringer down this way and what could've been. We get the same banding and dynamics but a few degrees too warm so it's just rain or catpaws. Complete feast or famine these years here it seems. 

  JM  BSOTON     SNOW MAPS    from  all sources are going  to BUST  IF  ...IF... IF.,..  these sounding   are right

 if Boston  at  7- 8 pm sat  is  37    dew point   36   

  0z     saturday  euro sounding  ar  7pm sat   has   BOST  at  37   Td  34...  thats NOT snow

 at  30 hrs   Temp is  34  Td  is  28  and  its about to  END

On 12/5/2020 at 1:05 AM, dryslot said:

  did u see the euro sounding?      they in no way support  BOS  getting  10"

   look at  differencs between  12Z  EURO  EPS      from 2  different sources   

  wow....
wxbell    snow maps-- joke     

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Holy crap they still exist!

And they haven’t changed one bit, that’s fooking hilarious.

nothing for  bos

   before    it turns    mild ... there  is this '  threat"