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SacrydDreamz

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  1. SacrydDreamz

    Revised thinking regarding Occlusions

    I agree from a purely meteorological perspective, as a better understanding should lead to better forecasts... but how about when trying to convey information to the public? I know many are afraid to even present occluded fronts to the public as it is believed (and perhaps accurately) that they wouldn't or simply do not want to understand them, thus creating confusion. From this standpoint, what are your thoughts? I waffle back and forth on this issue because one one hand you're presenting something that is demonstrably false, on the other hand you risk losing the public in a quest which adds very little, if any real value to the public forecast.
  2. SacrydDreamz

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    Tropical funnels, landspouts and water spots are all very similar (if not the same thing in many cases) as they form along localized shear boundaries, such as where outflow boundaries collide. The environment is characterized by relatively weak winds/shear, unlike supercells. Also unlike supercells, the circulation usually builds from the ground (water) upwards... They are usually weak and short-lived... but some have produced signiifcant damage (particularly landspouts). Gustnadoes form along gust front boundaries and in this way are also similar to the previous three... difference is that they are associated with severe storms of which many are indeed supercells. As far as a hurricane's rain bands are concerned, think waterspout or landspout on steroids.
  3. SacrydDreamz

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    Hard to say with regard to the historical storms... and as far as consistency is concerned, I'm not sure we have that with the six hour measurements...
  4. SacrydDreamz

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    I would hire a committee of people more knowledgeable than myself and have them spend it. The one suggestion I would have is to increase the amount of surface observing sites... a strong mesonet in each state would be nice. More buoys in the Pacific would be helpful as well.
  5. SacrydDreamz

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    You know, I find it interesting that you mentioned fresh snow... and something I've postulated is that with fresh snow one would have more surface area in contact with air particles. With a stale snow pack you will get melt/freeze cycles which lead to a less porous surface. This is all a hypothesis though, but it's an interesting thought experiment.
  6. SacrydDreamz

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    Well when you have three distinct jet,s it's because either the subtropical jet or polar jet has split. I can't recall ever seeing both jets split simultaneously... and if it did occur I envision that it would be incredibly messy and am not sure much would develop out of it in terms of an organized storm system... too much interference.
  7. SacrydDreamz

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    It's hard for me to imagine a system in which the polar and subtropical jets are both split with vort maxes all phasing... but I wont say it's impossible. It would be interesting if it did occur, however...
  8. SacrydDreamz

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    You know, I respectfully disagree to some extent -- and the bias is not typically intentional. That said envision two equally qualified candidates, one from Penn State and another from UNC Asheville. If an employer has a rich history of employing graduates from Penn State with little or no history of hiring UNCA grads, then I think it would default in the majority of cases to the Penn State candidate. I can even think of at least one overt case of bias (of which I have some personal knowledge) in a separate field... where candidates from a select school were admittedly favored over candidates from other schools. My opinion is that a school's "brand" has some weight, but that the risk incurred by taking on additional debt is more than the reward of potentially being held in favor over another candidate.
  9. SacrydDreamz

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    Well in general one could look at the size of said department... schools with larger departments will in general have more funding and more opportunities for research. Additionally, location is important even at the undergrad level because some school have "specialties" if you will. Take Oklahoma for example... it's well known that they are a top, if not THE top school for all things severe weather. Florida state is good for Tropical. Penn State is very balanced. Not only is location important here, but then you have some schools who have a good research relationship with local NWS offices. NC State is a good example here. Another factor that is underrated is cost, to you. Choosing to go to Penn State when you could pay in-state tuition to Rutgers, for example (for NJ residents), is probably not the best use of your money. Even when picking schools out-of-state... some are much cheaper than others with little difference in the quality of education at the undergrad level (where specialization isn't nearly as important), NC State, for example, is nearly $10,000/year cheaper for OOS students and I would argue that the program is just as good as Penn State's... then again, I'm an NCSU alum
  10. SacrydDreamz

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    And to add to that, if I may, when the shortwave in trough in question gets sheard out as it heads east, there is little dynamic support to induce any significant warm advection ahead of the system, so little in the way of QPF. On the other hand, a trough which is digging down the plains and into the Gulf can induce a strengthening surface low and strong warm advection running from the Gulf and into the Southeast... producing a plethora of rainfall. So in many cases if the trough has reached its maximum southward extent across the Southwest and you see the amplitude decrease as it heads east, chances are it will fade until it hits the east coast (where jet streak dynamics may provide a spark, assuming it's along the coast) while a trough that is getting deeper/sharper will have be more likely to produce a significant amount of QPF in the Southeast and potentially up the coast.
  11. SacrydDreamz

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    My response into the causalities was not as exhaustive as am19psu, but there was am answer to "why" in there. Your reasoning was good too, though.
  12. SacrydDreamz

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    Since the NAO is derived from pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic, a blocking high in the vicinity of Greenland would cause the NAO to go negative while a deep upper-level low would cause the NAO to be read as positive. As far as why there's a high there sometimes while at other times there's a low -- part of that can be explained by sea-surface anomalies while another factor is the AO and stratospheric warming events that lead to a displacement of low pressure anomalies and subsequent trough amplification/probability of blocking.
  13. SacrydDreamz

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    Baroclinic zones can be strengthened through a variety of means, including jet streak interactions (especially when two jet streaks are coupled favorably), differential positive vorticity advection, increased thermal advection, moisture advection, or convection. Through all of these means one can create stronger temperature differences along a horizontal surface, which is a "lazy", but useful, way to think of baroclinity.
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