TugHillMatt

BGM NWS: Here's to hoping... The focus on Friday then turns to the cold air arriving on the back side of the departing low pressure system. A cold westerly flow will set up initially mid to late Friday morning and trigger the beginning of lake effect snow from around Syracuse to Utica and north into the southern Tug Hill. The overall flow pattern will veer more toward the northwest later in the day Friday and Friday night which will allow the lake band(s) to shift to the south. There should be plenty of cold air available with 850mb temps down to around -15 to -17 C, and a persistent northwest wind with a potential upstream lake connection to keep the lake effect band going into at least Friday evening and possibly Friday night. There also may be a weak source of moisture wrapping around the system off the coast to help enhance the depth of the mixed layer feeding into central NY. Snowfall rates late Fri and Fri evening could become high enough for some significant accumulations. Will need to monitor the potential for winter headlines during this time moving forward.

Indeed, it was!!! Our age is showing...

Wow, it's like he knows where all the weenies from Americanwx live....

0Z runs barely give us flurries through the end of the week. Another boring winter week.

Yawn. Nams look even worse. We're chasing after another synoptic dusting.

Did you have the 18Z Euro map?

Well, some of them were further NW yesterday, then went SE, and came back NW a bit. The Ukie and Euro went SE. Fortunately, the short range models are agreeing more on a NW track. The models are going to have to take a pretty big jump in order for us to get more than a very trivial 1 to 3 inch ordeal.

They're probably going with the "band is usually more north than models show" tendency.

According the New England forum, the 18Z EPS came west and look juiced. It looks like many have the Low sitting off the Massachusetts coast. Not sure that helps us too much...but that's usually a good spot for enhanced snows off the lakes (despite what BGM NWS says!)

Whoop, there it is... Snow amounts now around an inch in CNY to 2 to 3 inches Scranton to Monticello and points south. Surface Temperatures mostly in the 20s so event will be all snow. Low pressures consolidate and intensify off the mid Atlantic coast then head quickly northeast well off the New England coast. The better forcing and moisture remains to our southeast. The 12z models agree on this scenario. As this storm exits much colder air comes in from the northeast Friday. At this time moisture from the storm does not look to wrap around to aid the lake effect snow showers. A few inches of snow is possible Friday from the eastern Finger Lakes into the upper Susquehanna Region. A cool breezy mostly cloudy day with highs in the 20s.

It's so nice not having to stress about where a lake effect snow band is going to set up.

I'll take it if it can cover the freakin grass tips completely. Let's get that lake involved. (Although I don't know how SW Onondaga county has somehow become the snowbelt now.)

Instead of watching model runs and overanalyzing them, I guess it's back to overanalyzing radars to see if a five mile wide band of lake effect snow can move through for a couple hours. I can't believe I have to watch Seattle, Huntsville, and DC news stations to see some real snow falling.

12Z Nam doesn't do it. SE with the rest of the models.

They're in cahoots with Buffwx. "Gotta have the lake snows. Where's the lake snows? There's the lake snows! Gotta drive to the lake snows. Report on the lake snows. Oh! More lake snows!"

I saw the low end. It would give us the classic 21-22 dusting.

The American sickness of it is ALWAYS "somebody else's fault." It's so sad and disgusting to me. Can we ever just accept and own up that we make dumb choices or WE are RESPONSIBLE? Sorry, OT, but not really. lol

Yeah, I saw your posting about that, and agree. That very often happens. It just seems to doesn't often seem to happen when WE want it to! It seems to happen more often with cutters...or maybe it just feels that way because that's mostly what we have had?

I was thinking that as well! They're usually quite conservative when it comes to snowfall maps days out, so that's a bit surprising.

BGM is now discussing the lake enhancement (or ocean enhancement?) I've been alluding to. @sferic@Syrmax The low pressure system off the coast moves to the e/ne quickly on Friday morning and the synoptic snow should end west to east. However, behind the departing system another punch of cold Canadian air will drop south through the region and bring with it more lake effect snow showers into central NY. There could be significant snowfall accumulations with this lake event as the moisture from the coastal low wraps around the back side and aids in the available moisture for LES. This cold air mass will keep temperatures on Friday in the 20s for much of the region.

What on earth model are they looking at?? BGM is almost never bullish like this...even if it's "high end" amounts.

Almost all of the models are showing WNW lake snows at some point between Saturday and Tuesday. That is not surprising considering activity off to our east if the synoptics do miss us. So, yep, I think we will get several inches of snow at some point during that time. Perhaps cover the grass blades completely for the first time in weeks.

I see the Nam being the furthest NW as a good sign though. It tends to lead the way with NW shifts. So, we shall see...

I jinxed this when I said optimistically last night this would be our best shot area-wide. This is looking similar to last year where we finally got cold air and the track was suppressed to our south...this year might be waaaay south. @rochesterdaveYou might have to give both your nuts for us to get a bloody synoptic snowstorm around here.