TugHillMatt

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Honestly, that was a great 0z suite of runs. Most of us got a boost in QPF. Ensembles look good too. This storm is looking quite a bit more impressive. 

I’m wondering if BUF will upgrade to warnings, especially Gennessee valley and East. Wayne county looks real nice Tim! 

They sure did.

Woke up way too early because my internal clock said it was time to check the new nws discussion...and model runs...and the forum...

Oh, the excitement of the first region-wide snow storm.

We now enter the season of sleepless nights...especially where I live!  Lol

10 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

thanks to all..yes sir we have all sectors of the region getting covered...nothing beats checking the radar and looking at your window in real time to provide updates and so forth...hey cny-lesfreak i have a ?..speaking of the wind flor being 295 currently..do you have a localized map that provides this cny area of the wind vector based on the flow..i have followed this forum for a while without ever registering and i want to say last year i recall seeing such a map that had a great visual of what the lake effect wind flow looked like and tried to go back to look it up but couldnt find the map..thanks bud

Think about it in terms of a full 360 degree circle. Any flow between 181 and 270 degrees would be a SW to W wind direction. A flow between 270 and 359 degrees would be a west to northwest flow. 180 is directly from the south, 270 is directly from the west, and 360 is directly north.

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

You guys have more posters there then here despite the population differences. The majority in Buffalo hate the snow. Only a few of my friends enjoy it, the rest can not wait for jet ski season. 

Many people I have met in Oswego county...particularly in Orwell, Redfield, and Boylston areas, enjoy the snow. Anybody who hates snow has moved or avoids the area. Lol

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Welcome! Nice to have a poster from Oswego! 

Yes, it is. Welcome, Matty. I am loving that we have posters from different sections of Oswego county.

We managed to keep most of ours...We did have some on the ground before this event. Getting some nice bursts of snow this evening and right now.

I like that this next system is coming at night. Picked up about 2.5 inches of very wet snow here from today's system.

Wow. If the Lake effect happens tonight, and something like the Euro is showing happens for Friday, Syracuse over to Madison county could have some of the deepest snow depths in the state.

The current pattern is exactly why I wanted to move out of the Lake Plain (of Lake Michigan) and to a higher elevation. Too stressful playing the "how are lake temps going to ruin it" game. Lol
That band tomorrow night is looking pretty good for those of you to the south. Looks like some lighter upslope snows here after the system goes through.

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

In the maps they create for specific LES events as you'll see shortly they forecast higher snowfall amounts in Redfield, Lowville, etc... then places closer to the lake. As you already mentioned they use the phrase "Tug" as the hardest hit zone on average east of Ontario. In WNY its called "Ski Country" (Ellicottville/South Dayton/Mayville/Springville/etc...) which encompasses even more towns in generality than the "tug" if that makes any sense.  

Yeah, it does. It wasn't my intention to get in an in-depth debate over this. :) As mentioned, BGM splits some of their counties for the climate differences, so not sure why BUF doesn't. I am not implying imbyism as ONLY Redfield, but a split in the county roughly along Route 13 from Williamstown to Altmar to Pulaski would make climatological sense. Main bands, depending on winds usually set up north or south of that line. Having a similar split in Chautauqua county would be similarly feasible.

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

But they don't divide it by townships, they just split the counties. Either way its very rare. Usually only do it in high population zones where weather extremes have high variance. They would have to divide WNY about 100 different ways because of how high of a variance the winter weather here is from Niagara county to ski country in the hills. 

 

I understand your point, but at the same time, when Redfield averages 100 to 150 inches more than locations 15 to 20 minutes away...Seems like it would make sense to simply divide the county between southwest and northeast.

I guess BUF does do this within the county forecast by saying "in the Tug hill." Even though the population is sparse, this is a highly popular winter recreation area and having more location-specific warnings would be helpful.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Places like Perrysburg and Redfield have micro climates. You go up a few hundred feet elevation and it’s a totally different world.

For real.  I was just talking to someone about that this weekend. Keeps it interesting

Don't they divide Cayuga county as well?

29 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

Well at least it looks like Winter up there, lol!

Yep! Still have snowcover in most places after today.

I feel BUF NWS should divide this area of Oswego county from the rest of it. Definitely Winter Weather advisory potential for this area but none issued because the rest of the county won't get too much.

I will have to get used to averaging between Oswego and Lewis counties here.

So I guess cropping and "zooming in" on images makes it possible to post them.
This pic is from this weekend.

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Try to crop the photo matt until it allows you to upload lol 

Sometimes i'll screenshot the photo then edit and upload..

50 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Hey Matt, this site is clunky as hell. I eventually got a photo shrinking app. It sounds like your photos have too much data. 

Some camera apps also take pics with a lower data file. Max is 1.95 MB. There might also be a setting on your actual phone to decrease the the size of each pic. 

Its a pain. And you can’t use normal emojis either. This site is very old. 

Thanks for the tips, guys. I will continue playing around with it.

30 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Tug Hill Matt is gonna be pretty popular around here. It’s going to be great to have eyes on the ground up in that region. I might become insanely jealous. 

I have been trying to post pictures from my phone, but every image seems to be too many bytes. Don't know how to change that...

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Little bit of improvement on the projected snowfall with 2”-3” “inching” its way towards me and obviously more towards Matt..

 

Temperatures and critical thicknesses will be marginally cold enough
to support snow. Model consensus suggests that once precipitation
starts and evaporation cools the air column, it will be cold enough
to support snow in most locations. As a result, precipitation will
start as a rain or snow mix, but then change over to snow. Warmer
air aloft may change precipitation back to rain across southern and
eastern portions of the cwa late in the night. 

I am right on the 4 inch line. Almost all of the 12Z runs are showing 3 to 6 inches of snow for this area.

Roads had to be plowed Friday and Saturday nights...already building snow "banks" (mini...Lol) along sides of roads. My guess is they will be much bigger by this weekend.

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

RGEM and HRDPS both much better looking. We’re still talking only 3-6”, but much better runs. 

NWS certainly not impressed with valley accumulations. 

I was thinking the same thing. They just muddled over any potential even up here on the Tug...and then downplayed Friday's event as well.

BGM's discussion has a completely different tone, and more wintry.

7 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Tuesday’s storm is now so anemic that it is completely being disregarded and folks are already moving on to the next (unimpressive) threat. It was fun while it lasted.  

Who knows, maybe Ontario can throw us a little love on the backside. NW flow for a few hours. 

Many areas of Central NY look to get a few inches of snow in the Tuesday event.

39 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

First taste of the tug. Just wait until your first real LES event, I’m excited for you. 

Thanks! I posted video on FB of it moving through...and all my local friends here replied with, "This is nothing. You haven't seen anything yet."

2 inches from the synoptic snow yesterday....3 inches this afternoon as the band went through. Band was moving pretty quickly.

Snow accumulating on all surfaces...trees look beautiful.

Amazing how different it is about 500 to 600 feet higher than you, wolfie. I sit at about 1200 to 1300 feet here, and am working towards an inch. With the way it is snowing now, it will pile up quickly. Only thing not covered is driveway and under pine trees.

Started snowing big flakes here around 12:30 and continues. Trying to accumulate.

24 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Normally hang onto our leaves a couple weeks later here. Guessing it’s warming influence of the lake. Pay for it in the spring though with a bit later leaf out when lake keeps us cooler. 

Snow is falling pretty good here with a nice coating on shrubs and rooftops. 

23 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Urban areas tend to hold onto leaves longer.


.

Urban areas and near bodies of water don't get the early deep freezes that cause leaves to wither and fall off faster