The_Global_Warmer
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Everything posted by The_Global_Warmer
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Surface temperature anomalies for the Kara From Dec 1-Present have been 10-17.50C. Mean temps have been around -8 to -10C towards the Laptev side to -2 to -4C on the Island side. This is from the pattern, first and foremost. But also from how incredibly thin the ice was and how much warm open water was left over during the early fall period. The Kara is shallow, so thin ice can form easy as the sun sets and cold sets in. But even with the pattern, this hasn't happened before and the sheer ice retreat so far embedded in the arctic winter regime is quite absurd. But taking in the extra thin ice, warm waters, and pattern. It is doable at this point. I would say it is the by product of many positive feedback's + the pattern. The models both show a Dipole anomaly or partial one the next 7-10 days. But in regards to the Kara show more southerly warm winds..not as warm as recent ones, but warm enough.
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January 2009 on AIRS was 1848ppb. 1ppb behind July of 2009 at 1849ppb. January of 2012 anomaly was 12ppb higher than 2009. So roughly 1860ppb. This is for 70-90N. So roughly 11ppb higher. December of 2011 was around 1852-1853ppb which broke the record high for 70-90N, now this breaks record for monthly ppb at 400mb. This is also a new record for the 50-70N, NH, and global. These increases are small though.. talking about this making any impact on temperatures right now outside of a 0.000?? something is a bit absurd and it makes folks think crazy alarm-ism is going on. the important message here is that we know the arctic is leaking...and we need to keep track of it to see if this is the beginning of major rises in methane or just a blip.
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the Methane is coming from the arctic ocean. But it is not causing the arctic to warm like this. Ice and Snow albedo are combined with the overall pattern. The methane is a background warming that is very slowly changing the heat distribution of globe, yes initially affecting the Arctic the most, but not very much.
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this is the top 5 meters.
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It is relatively small but it is confirms that it originated from 70-90N. Which means its coming out of the ocean most likely.
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Time for them to change the Graphs ranges.
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Your right. Thanks for letting me know. You could also just refute the point and the affect months of open water will have VS little to no open water.
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2011 like 2007 was a bit off the charts...but the length of time that the Laptev was exposed to max sun was absurd. This still though is with ice using up most of the incoming solar energy until early to mid July. Just a couple decades ago. These areas only had a short window at the end of the summer of open water, And even then the water was still filled with ice floes and cold. Before the early to mid 80s it was nearly ice covered to some extent all year or only open for less than a month. There is 500,000-1,000,000 mil km2 of water area that used to see a very small amount of direct w/m2 maybe 30-50 watts per year. Now these areas are getting 150-200 w/m2. This is very new. This is concerning to me. This is pretty simple science IMO. That seems to me that melting would be accelerated by more than a factor of 2 because the amount of solar energy reaching these areas has gone up by hundreds of percent in some cases on a year to year basis.
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The jump started in July and now soars to a new record high that is quite a bit higher than before. Clearly a "new" source or the ESAS just was a stronger source to feed the Northern Hemisphere. It is also no wonder the arctic has suffered amplified warming with these gases being strongest and most concentrated up there. This is also the hardest place to keep track of SATs which I hope soon they deploy a new satelitte soley for arctic temperature. That can reach the pole or closer at a more accurate depiction than the current satelittes. Anyways. Is methane only coming out of the Laptev and ESB or also the Chuchki, Kara, and Barents?
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That was weird. It was clear the interviewee was holding back a bit to not politicize this threw alarmism. but also admitted the 8gt is undeRdone. and that the methane is 6-8k years old.
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it was a good article. But most folks will see alarmism because they want to believe it's not possible. The link to the other recent paper about the soot and methane was good as well.
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I appreciate it. I respect everyone who is being geniune in their own right. I think that we all get bias and and from time to time might get caught up in agendas. And we all make mistakes and should all try to be more respectful to others when they make them and assume the best and try to help out as best as possible. Then there are some here who clearly only have one "agenda" in mind. And responding to there BS just makes it worse.
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Post a recent picture of yourself
The_Global_Warmer replied to LithiaWx's topic in Southeastern States
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1. Guys lets stop with the name calling. I understand how frustrating argueing with someone who goes around to nearly every thread he posts in and talks about clouds and Geomag begging for people to listen all while saying yes yes it's geomag, but maybe it's not hehe, we will see. Thats why you should just not do it. He has been doing the same thing for years. Every time you break the TOS, and I am sure name calling of any sort does that job you get turned in. If he doesn't turn you in I am sure someone does. I was banned from this forum for 2 days and my infractions were speck of sand compared to others because I had so many reported posts. Even posts that were just "conjecture" were reported as spamming. You won't win this game in this fashion, you win it by sticking to reality. And all of you are needed for contributions here. So lets keep it a bit more clean. there is no reason to let it get to you so much. I've been threw it, it's not worth it. 2. From a nuetral POV there are many posts in this thread that reek of Alarmism. I am very liberal and fully believe the power of GHGs and I am very open minded of the dangers of it and that includes Methane Clathrates. But in the same way we have seen so many posters come here and say speak of the sea ice being "fine" as if that was actual a reality or it being recovered or saying Cryosat or PiPs is legit is kinda the same as pimping a methane smoking gun. I fully believe that we will see at least a doubling of methane release between now and 2015 in the arctic. and probably a tripling by 2020, which I believe takes it from 8 mil GTons to 24 mil GTons. But we do not have near enough evidence as of now to be so alarming with it. 3. Do not forget that the sun sets every winter in the arctic. 4. Have Fun!!
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Lower regions of the Laptev are between 72 and 76N. Which are also very shallow. Those Clathrates are in places 50M or shallower. We know that the sun in the arctic can get down to about 100-125M. Obviously the more shallow the more time that more energy will be reaching into the water as well as the more time the energy will be available. The Laptev starts to see Sunlight again in a few weeks. Looking back into the past. There were many years of open water in the Laptev. But what has changed dramatically is how early this is starting now. http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=07&fd=21&fy=1979&sm=07&sd=21&sy=2011 I am sure if someone wants to find one year and try to spin as if it is normal for the Laptev to have regions be ice free as long as now then so be it. 2011 was quite remarkable in the length of time that the Laptev had open water during the summer. The Polyanas started to form at the every end of May/first week of June. In the past this was more common towards mid to late June into early July, but not only that would come and go or slowly open up as the summer melt would go on and by August sometime the sea would open up or not, or be partialy open. Not until the 2000s and really 2007 have we seen such abrupt summer changes up there coming earlier and earlier. Clearly the MYI probably played a role. 2008 didn't melt out early because of an anomolous pattern. Basically what happened in 2011 compared to other years which explains the extra methane is probably a factor of longer term melting over time. And having so much open water for so long during peak sun between 72-78N for the seas to warm(Remember polarstern found a 3C water temp 10 meters deep in September hudnreds of miles off the coast in the Laptev). They also noted how incredibly late ice formation was in this region as well. Not the ice we see on concentration graphs but the very beggenings. So far 2007 and 2011 are pretty anomalous in terms of how much peak solar time the water was exposed to the sun. Logically we can assume a combo of longer term melting and excessive in situ warming are the faults for this taking place. If the in situ warming continues the only obvious conclusion is the rate of methane release will go up faster and faster. When, how much, and where a massive release could take place is hard to say. But this directly coincides with a substansial increase in early ice loss in the areas where methane is bubbling out. It would be very irresponsible to ignore the reality here. It is equally irresponsible to proclaim anything that doesn't have enough evidence to validate it will happen. Even if we see the ice trends stop right here and stay here for a while, given the dynamics in play I would still think more and more methane will continue to pour out. If we continue to see arctic warming and early ice loss in the key areas. Then hope the amount of methane close to being released is not absurd.
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UAH can not properly analyze the arctic surface let alone analyze 82-90N. How many threads in how many different ways can UAH be brought into?
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When you look at it like that it is definitely on the rise. But nothing explosive so far at all.
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Thanks Don. Buoys have shown us many cases that giss underestimates the arctic surface warming. This is highly evident in fall. Look at the Kara and Laptev in December. Giss will not even be close to getting that of warmth. But apparently its just Contaminating the data set. Natural changes in surface albedo contaminates the data set. So were told.
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What happens to CH4 that is bubbing out while the arctic is freezing up. I am assuming it cant freeze at the surface of the ocean. Iwould assume the ice blocks it from reentry to the ocean. How long does keltic keep pouring out of the ocean after freeze up? the sun can give SW to parts of the ESAS until mid fall IIRC. Is that when its over ? like do the clathrates keep leaking out methane or freeze back over the winter months while no sun? Thanks in advance. Next summer will be a big year to focus on this. There is no MYI left in the Russian side. The Russians do a hell of a job every week using satelittes, radar, shipping records, submarines, models, and ascat to track ice progresion. Ice in the barents, laptev, and kara has been continuously recycled under the near constant pattern. Not to mention the constant warm temp anomalies. We could get another conplete meltout of the Russian seas. Last summer the ESB didnt melt out because of that arm of MYI that extended well up into the Sea. That arm was crippled and pushed north towards the chuchki while the MYI running along the Kara, laptev, barents has been pushed out the fram into the greenland sea, and Canadian basin. That was mostly 2nd and 3rd year Ice that was about a half to meter thick in mid sept. That ice will likely be 2-3 meter ice in the Canadian basin. While the ice in its place will be 1-2 meters wont make it.
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2012 is clearly to play a huge role. The ESAS will go ice free to very thin again. I hope they are prepared to moniter it
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Peter Wadhams spends a lot of time in the arctic and is well repsected. I was suprised to see him on the list even though he does think the ice will possibly melt out between 2015-2020. But he didn't believe that until he went back to the arctic recently during the summer and saw the state of the ice himself.
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This thread is actually filled with a ton of information with tons of legit science backup. Everyone participitating has learned who chooses to learn in many ways about CH4 in this thread. Where it comes from, how strong it is, how the measuring process works, how much is there out there?, how legit the threat is, upper atmospheric charts and methane analysis, what are the wind patterns that carry CH4 as well as other GHGS throught the atmosphere, why did methane stop rising for a while, why is it rising again, how long has it been rising, how far back does the rising go, what are the implications of this, does the sea ice reduction play a role, how much of a role does solar insolation play, will we see more of this in 2012, 13, 14? I can go on and on. This thread is loaded with incredible amounts of information so either you already know all of it which is doubtful, or your not in the thread to learn it.
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Will you show me where this is being used?
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Until we see say 50-100 million gt of mthane break oit at once or a very short period. we won't see wide spread changes. This is the pre-Cursor to massive releases this shows us that clathrates are breaking down from melting. These may temporarily freeze or have a slowdown also the ice around 5-1 meter has grown by now , this will block or slow the release. Next summer this will likely seem like a minor event compared to then. What do you think 2-3 months of ice free solar insolation will do? How about 2013? 2014? Even if by some miracle the ice extent naturally variables its way to 5.0-5.5 km2 extent. Remember that is 15% the entire arctic could sit at 30% concentration and the I've extent would be 8.5 mil km2. The arctic ice albedo feedback won't stop. Our buoys tell us that more heat is being trapped than any recent times. hopefully we have better tracking up there next summer.
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The Ice reflects the Shortwave radiation back. Between the Laptev, ESB, Chuchki, and Kara the amount of extra W/M2 since say 2007 could be pretty high like in the Hundreds of Billions, or maybe Trillions by now. I am not sure. But that will definitely even heat up the arctic floor enough, expecially if it is 100M or shallower, the futher down in latitude the more deep the sun rays can reach. Some places with tons of methane are closer to shore with 30-60M deep water that might be getting 2-3 months of extra sun that it never got before or very very rare. So without the Sea Ice retreat/loss of thickness/loss of age/lost all together this would not be happening. There is no doubt about that.