The_Global_Warmer
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Everything posted by The_Global_Warmer
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I have no idea Thats why I am asking you. You made a claim. I have no idea I your claim is valid. I asked if you have anyway to back your claim so I can learn more about this.
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Hey Terry. the graph you posted is from modeled data. I would be weary of using it. http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75657 That is from a live active buoy that is working 100% correct with no hang ups. this shows current salinity at: Last position on 2011/12/25 230033 UTC : 75.0958° N, 138.2419° W that is quite a bit lower than the modeled data. That looks prety high for a frozen arctic at the surface. So I am not sure how much credence I would give that graph. http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=75676 that one is around 77N and 132W that shows closer to 25. So the graph from the Navy looks like it's way over done.
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I do, they are involved in something with deep knowledge of it and that knowledge tells them the Earth is in some big trouble. This is backed by mainstream science. This is matter of how much methane so we can figure out how screwed, if at all we are. Not a matter of if methane warms the atmosphere. This is true, but will likely be far over-looked by to many folks. Who will cast them as kooks. If we see the ice loss increase/ROW rate of warming increase more in the arctic summers/winters coming up, it won't matter, there fears will get much more light as methane keeps pouring out, unless they are just wrong about all of this. Which I am sure many at this point are choosing to believe over reality. As I write this the MYI is getting flushed even more. We really need a pattern change before we end up going into next summer with hardly any MYI ice left in the basin. We are virtually guarenteed at this point even with a favorable pattern for less ice loss that we will reach 5.0 mil km2 or lower leaving the Russian side totally ice free again for methane clathrates to melt some more. The Euro develops a stout Dipole Anomaly this week, adding to the already bad conditions in the arctic for the ice. Some of that is being compacted causing ridging along the Canadian Basin. This is devoiding almost all of the Russian seas of any old ice. leaving only FYI, but maybe will help cause some thick ice to develop threw ridging in the CA Islands area. This still doesn't help the Atlantic side where ice is being slammed out the arctic with relentless 20-40KT winds week after week.
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They will be cast off as crazies. Even if what they believe happens.
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As I learned before talking solutions are not very productive. But science in thread has been extremely productive. I thought someone posted the ch4 levels from svalbard? Between the myi and perpetuall blow torch. 2012 in the arctic will see the russian side melt out again. likely assuring more and more clathrates to repeat and do more. If we get an pattern like now look out. Remember in middle sept when I said the Ice was very thin and we saw Ice retreat 100 miles in 3 days with good winds, not great. The Ice along the kara, esb, laptev, and barents will be .50 to 2m thick at best. Solar insolation starts back up around 78N in late Feb. Gonna be an interesting spring.
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Thats pretty sweet science. But this is reality. You don't have methane plumes at that level and no atmospheric changes. With The Hippo data now out there. We are about to see new papers with better models predicting things so we can continue to refine projections
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Thank you so much for posting this. I am glad to see oxy production was up in the southern hemisphere. But the rest sucks.
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So this is a mostly a laptev and ESB event or kara and chuchki to barents and bearing. Also, my cpu is broken. I am getting it fixed this week. Will someone please post any real time obs of ch4 in the arctic region, thank you.
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Well done phillip.
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The ice albedo feedback would also be many times less potent. this isn't bunk science. The methane is there abd its enough to cause major changes over a short period. How much ice a have is irrelevent. This is happening because ladt summer and the last few recent ones are ice free ove
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The methane is in the sea floor. I am not sure what you meant there. It is traped there. Under pressure and lowertemps. Unless the the sea ice regenerates the clathrates will break down and methane will continue to pour out at an accelerated rate with likely major releases that will have larger impacts on our climate. As far as the billions of gigatons of methane being from plants that used to be there. Do you hace any thing to back this?
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Barrows CO2 levels also jumped to the 402-404 range from the 390-393 range. This could be in error. This also couldbe from methane converting to CO2. It could also Be that some carbon was trapped along with methane that was released. The Molecular Hydrogen also saw a big dive lower the last two weeks. I don't know what this means but I would assume density of gases would stay pretty balanced.
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I dont know. The laptev is iced over. There had been perpetual SLPs over the N ATL and Barents. This has pumped some warm air into the arctic. Physically speaking the methane would add to this. but it cant be very much
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I dont know. The laptev is iced over. There had been perpetual SLPs over the N ATL and Barents. This has pumped some warm air into the arctic. Physically speaking the methane would add to this. but it cant be very much
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Is there a similar CO2 map ? So Barrowand svalbard have both seen spikes in methane. It will be something to pay close attention too as this goes forward.
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The milks gone bad. Lol, that sucks..luckily as that flows around the planet we won't see such a sharp rises. but that is pretty ridiculous. I wonder how long it will take to reach Hawaii. It will be interesting to see how much has been released. What is worse is the MYI has been pushed away from the Russian side. Basically it's almost guaranteed the same places melt out next summer barring a volcano.
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Phillip- Thanks for that post. I saw that there was a lot of replys. I have a 45 min train ride to work. So I was pretty excited to have so much quality info to read. That turned out to be a major let down. The fact that no one could answer my questions tells me that both sides need a reality check. We have seen no measurements on what impact this will have. we dont know how much methane was released. We should wait to see how much was released and observe this region very closely the next few years to see if this kind of release continues to grow stronger or weaker. Observations and information gathering are our best tools for future assesments. We know the Earth is going to warm more regardless of this. So we can't stop it any ways. If avrupt action is needed we will know soon enough. Nothing I say about the childish behavior I this thread will be received and will promote more childish behavior. I just hope it stops. So lets and have a discussion on what this means scientifically anything else should be deleted, the thread derailing is old. I know Barrow and Hawaii have methane obs. I am not on a cpu so I would apreciate it if someone else would find the latest for us.
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Phillip- Thanks for that post. I saw that there was a lot of replys. I have a 45 min train ride to work. So I was pretty excited to have so much quality info to read. That turned out to be a major let down. The fact that no one could answer my questions tells me that both sides need a reality check. We have seen no measurements on what impact this will have. we don
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I get called an alarmist. And whatever BS, but this report is sickening. I guess some of the folks reading this want to deny it. But this isn't good. Let's hope this is a seasonal event. And was in response to high end in situ warming and not a long term thaw. But that is not the likely reality. Can we tell how long this particular methane has been there? Is there any studies out with their actual measurements? How long before the Methane shows up on obs like Barrow or Hawaii? What is the methane forcing formula? Like w/m2 per how much?
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This might sound like a dumb question but how much will actually stay in the atmosphere? Compared to say being absorbed by the oceans or plants and other things?
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What was looking like the first accumulating snow of the season is now looking like a huge bust. Still 12-18 hrs left to see if anything materializes
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Alaska/Western Canada obs and discussion
The_Global_Warmer replied to patrick7032's topic in Central/Western States
This monster as a nerdy fun fact will cause the sea ice to be the lowest on record for early november. Pending the exact track and winds. There may be some amazing compaction for November 9th-11th -
Interesting that you completely bailed on the Sea Ice Thread after insulting me a few times. I hope this year will get you to see what is really going on.