CAD_Wedge_NC

2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

I better check my lottery tix! Some poor sap from Simpsonville, won it all!!!

Drive around town and look to see who's packing up and moving out. That will most likely be your winner. Most lottery winners end up moving due to the risks of staying at their current residence.

11 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I took a railroad job up in Wisconsin.  I'm a freight train conductor up in Wausau Wisconsin to be exact.  I'm trying to get back home but it has been a very grueling task. I'm back currently because both my grandmother and my grandfather just passed away... So I'm trying to be as patient as possible but I need to get back.

Sorry to hear that man..... hope you do make it back down here. 

4 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Great shots eyewall. Things are slowly starting to turn down here in the central mountains finally. 

I see your signature says Wisconsin? Are you back here for the winter?

3 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Perspecta Weather's Winter Outlook is textbook! https://www.perspectaweather.com/20182019-winter-outlook?fbclid=IwAR2Mu-ujks2I4A2Rpm6pxV9PxdVBNUCLU7zQb5C4VGm7OyuLZkFdAVKFM_0

 

Very good outlook and "spot on" with what we should expect. Looks like it will be a good winter for both our regions. 

1 hour ago, WarmNose said:

Yeah we get heat and humidity most of the year. We look forward to our 3 week window every year to score “the big one”.. We are chasing our great white buffalo and we will get it one day. It may be when we are all grey and old, but we will get it one day.

I am already grey and old ...... but I have had the fortune of seeing several 12 inch+ snowstorms, thunder-snow, snow on Christmas Day and blizzard conditions with single-digit temps. Guess looking back at it, I have bagged my white buffalo. Maybe I will live long enough to see history repeat itself. I hope it happens this winter.

Got down to 32 degrees this morning. First freeze was right on schedule. I would have never guessed it, looking back at on the last few weeks of warmth.

2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right?

Whoa, wait a minute. Robert is a legend on this board and many of us still value his thoughts. I take offence to anyone who puts him down. If you knew his story, you would never have said those ugly words.

19 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Well the trend on the HRRR is to form the west side band sooner and further southwest...I am assuming it drags this band east to the coast like the 18Z run...inbetween the 00,06,12,18 the HRRR only runs 18 hrs. those runs are just now getting into range...the real question is how accurate is this even if its 10-20 mph to fast thats still 50-60 mph widespread gust....basically everywhere you see blue is hurricane force gust....

That's hurricane force winds over my backyard. That can't happen .... can it? 

18 hours ago, Waiting on snow said:

Yeah but, me and you both know that's not going to happen. Welcome to the new normal for the se. Our good ole friend the se ridge has became a permanent fixture for the better part of a decade.

Relax folks .... sure, this is not normal, but we are going to benefit from this later. As was mentioned before, snow-pack is building nicely in the source region of NW Canada. That is a good thing for us. Besides, cold in October is a waste anyway. Give the pattern time to evolve. We will reap the rewards in time. By December, this will be a distant memory.

2 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

just announced that the euro will run 4 cycles/day starting in oct.  winter will be fun, and cliff diving will be even more prevalent now!

Alright!!!! This is going to be good.

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Euro has been caving a lot the last couple of years.  It seems like it has lost a step since the upgrade a few years back.  I know someone will pop in with the verification stats, but watching tropical systems and winter events, it seems to cave to the GFS more than it used to.

Agreed, I don't put as much weight into it as I once did. 

8 hours ago, WeatherHawk said:

Muscadines loaded, apple trees loaded, and we scored 30 pounds of blueberries on three bushes...c'mon old man winter

My father had the best peach and pear season that he has had in the past 20 years. I can confirm the bumper fruit crop. Got a good feeling about this winter, if we can get a little El-Nino action started.

34 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Is that better than cold rain?

Oh heck yeah, I would rather have snow TV at 35 degrees than rain at 33 anytime. However, I don't think that's what the map is implying.... That being said, it doesn't reflect the current projected winter pattern in any way. That looks more like a global-warming version of a cold neutral.

5 hours ago, Met1985 said:

The mountain thread is dead!

Just give it a couple of months.....

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah weird, I thought we'd stop getting data, but it's still flowing in. Melt picked up big time though....1 day loss was 256k (!!). Largest by far yet this season for area loss.

 

2007: -782k

2008: -308k

2009: +323k

2010: -1.08 million

2011: -449k

2012: -1.06 million

2013: +64k

2014: -216k

2015: -253k

2016: -714k

2017: -470k

 

Obviously still a ton of work to do to be in contention for a top 5 year despite the big one day area loss.

Not reliable data.... No way.

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will be without NSIDC data for a few days. Planned maintenance from 6/25-6/29. 

This is a critical time for tracking ice levels. What are they changing/replacing/adjusting? If the data comes in grossly different after the so-called "maintenance", there will be a lot of skeptical folks out there.

23 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Highest NAO today since 2013... 5 years

2013 was a good summer for the arctic sea ice. Lets hope the pattern up there this melt season will be similar.

6 hours ago, SENC said:

Solar Minimum?

I have always wanted to witness a year without a summer. However, sorry to say, we can't avoid the inevitable heat that's coming.  

This is not looking good...... Enhanced Risk over MBY.

2 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Let me go ahead and get this out of the way now regarding next week's potential........the sun angle is too high, the soil temp is too warm, the warm nose is too strong, there will be a dry slot, gulf thunderstorms will rob the moisture, no chance for anyone outside the mountains, and oh yeah the time changes next week so it will be daylight longer.  Did I miss any?

Well, that pretty much sums it up.... glad we got that out of the way before we wasted a week tracking this one.

8 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I also agree. I think this will be the time period to hope for a late year miracle. At the very least, we'll be tracking some freezing temps.

Take a look at the 0z run. That NW trend sure happened quick. Probably will be a lakes cutter by verification time.

26 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

This might have potential, but it's still way out there...

It's a long-shot, but it's about all we have at the moment. Guess we will be rooting for the NW trend...

1 hour ago, Tornadocane said:

It's a tough pattern for Southeast Winter Storms, but the nail in the coffin for me is the PNA.   The PNA is often the best teleconnection to have on your side for an east coast snowstorm, because it can help dig troughs, press cold air masses towards the south, and force polar vortices to dive further into the trough.   I use to think my areas in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast needed everything to fall in place just right for an east coast snowstorm – Negative NAO, Negative EPO, and Negative AO.   I’ve learned that a positive, especially a strongly pronounced, PNA can overcome other teleconnections even when there about to be broken down by a progressive pattern.  In fact, a positive PNA has a downstream effect that enhances the –NAO and –AO. 

 

 

Then take a look at the NAO.  Sure it drops towards negative, but models indicate that its going to be a East-Based NAO.  Consequently, the models shift the core of the cold air into the Midwest, and the storm track drives through Midwest and Ohio Valley.  Not to mention, the Trough over the Western/Pacific areas of the CONUS keeps coming in stronger with each run.  I'm left with the impression that Ridging will be even more prevalent than forecast on the East Coast with some 1-2 day cold air intrusions.  The core of cold air, as a I mentioned, will focus over the upper midwest. 

Well, not exactly..... If the AO and NAO do fall to the levels indicated by modeling, it could set up a pattern that's cold from coast to coast. Not often, but it can happen. That would favor storms that enter southern California and exit the east coast of GA. Also, there are indicators that show this -NAO might be more west-based.

16 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

We might get lucky and score a late season early spring storm. Theres always a chance. But fir tbis ole boy its time for me to stick a fork inwinter 17/18. Wasnt all that bad. BN Nov,Dec,Jan. 8 straight days below freezing, and ended up a tick above climo for annual snowfall.

Yall have fun  chasing severe wx, mosqituoes and a shady spot the next 9 months. I'm airborne and headed toward the bottom of the cliff.

...another one's gone and another one's gone, another one bites the dust....... Phil would probably appreciate my musical humor with this one.

5 hours ago, CaryWx said:

An 18th storm maybe??

Nope, just another cutter I'm afraid...... I will say, that fantasy storm went downhill rather quickly.