David-LI

Not going to pay attention to track placement until NAM is in range. 

.25" of freezing rain is already very dangerous, imagine 1 inch?

any got maps for surface temp?

18 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That is very true and sad. I don't trust GFS or FV3 beyond 72 hours. Do you know when GFS is going to be taken offline?

GFS is being taken offline? Care to elaborate?

The storm thread is unbearable. Low is not even formed in the Pacific yet and people are debating if it's cutting or riding the coast. I can't take it.

Wouldn't a setup like this favor a low development off the coast? 

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs blows up the 1st wave for Friday. That might be a little treat before the main event.

We want an amped up solution for Friday. 

The main event looks good so far.

A little treat of rain on Friday, but looking great for the next storm. 

I don't remember which winter it was but we kept having shots of dry cold weather for days followed by rain, rinse repeat all winter. That is the worst.

Anything on the euro?

Small improvement on GFS. A coating to an inch Sunday morning, nothing more.

I'm not sure where some of you are getting the idea of snow on Monday. Please show me one model that brings snowfall, or even flurries to NYC metro on Xmas eve. 

1 hour ago, Toekneeweather said:

Euro has a white Christmas.  White rain mostly but we could get a few inches north and west. Still good enough

Can you elaborate on this a bit more please?

25 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Para cookng up a beast for nye

Way too far out. 

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Storm threat near Xmas for the area

Nothing on the GFS though.

HRRR hinting at snow for the city later tonight.

12 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

Nam looks nice and wintry for Monday night

For Inland areas and CT only. Rain storm for most on this sub. 

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think I just heard thunder

Probably a transformer. Just checked the live lightning map and it doesn’t show anything nearby. 

2 minutes ago, Dino said:

Unreal —over 1000 reports of trees down or damaged across NYC

https://twitter.com/nycspeakercojo/status/1063271539813031936?s=21

https://twitter.com/samuelhartson/status/1063246366955188224?s=21

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Trees-Fall-Across-Manhattan-New-York-Tri-State-Snowstorm-500646681.html

and here’s more gridlock in Manhattan:

https://twitter.com/kendisgibson/status/1063275941277966336?s=21

 

Wow what a mess! We shall never make fun of Atlanta ever again when they get snow.

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Wow I just checked the Ny harbor buoy and it’s sustained at 40 gusting to 50 knots. That’s pretty insane and fairly rare yet not even a wind advisory?

The last time I saw a transformer blow up was during Sandy. Then I saw a lot! Anyway, the snow feels heavy here. Maybe the power lines and tree branches are giving up. It's been raining for a couple hours now, but we also had some freezing rain in between. Now looking at the HRRR wind will only get stronger in the morning.

Anyone here? Those winds in the morning will blow up any transformer that hasn't yet. 

Windy here north Nassau. Came to backyard to smoke a cig and a transformer nearby just blew up.

Edit: According to HRRR winds will pick up in the pre morning hours. Those isobars look very close. Wouldn't be surprised if I woke up without power.

Sorry weenies. GFS is a rainstorm. You might see a flake or two inland.

This is looking like a good winter since we are anxiously waiting every model run in early November, and it's still fall.

If NAM verifies, can we finally put to rest the idea that it's an useless model long range? It has been consistent with snow for the coast since a few days ago, when it showed snow at hour 84 before the GFS did.

Is it normal for the Virginias to see their first snow before we do? Because they're going to Sunday morning.