I mean, I actually do agree because of the windshield wiper-ing going on, we really don't have any consistency, so yeah....hope is faint, but it's alive.
So, take a look at the ICON. Compared to 6z EUro, it looks about the same so far and I think it followed your scenario...just don't know if it'll turn out the same or as good tho.
And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but i don’t know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.