So, take a look at the ICON. Compared to 6z EUro, it looks about the same so far and I think it followed your scenario...just don't know if it'll turn out the same or as good tho.
And right after this sniveling post, the Euro came back. Will it be right? Probably not, but i don’t know that enough to make declarative statement about what I’m tracking. Go write a nasty PM to ECMWF about it.
I think for us in the cities this is probably going to be the best case scenario. It’s either this or all rain. Just sucks because we had all this cold air and nothing to show for it