Master of Disaster
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Posts posted by Master of Disaster
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Was the lowest pressure 964 on that last pass?
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An interesting note on Cat 4 intensity.
Doing a little hurricane background this morning.
Between 1951-1975, 23 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.
Between 1976-2000, 24 hurricanes reached Cat 4 intensity.From 2001-present, a whopping 21 hurricanes have already reached that intensity.
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Re: the whole issue with Galena. From what I've read, it takes a few minutes to generate a warning. The forecasters were probably still writing the warning when the 5:38 scan came out. Notice that there were only three minutes between the 2nd (5:39) and 3rd (5:42) SVS's. This may be due to the fact that the forecasters noticed that the couplet was closer to Joplin than it was to Galena. I think the important part is that the 5:39 SVS mentions the tornado is moving into Joplin. That should be enough to sound any on-air met's alarms. Furthermore, on-air mets should check the radars themselves and know what's going on. I haven't read the book, but again the title of it implies the warning system failed, which, IMO, it did not.
There was not a single tornado emergency issued -- the SVS's I posted were all the ones associated with Tornado Warning #31.
I think, in general, the timescales associated with this particular event (i.e. the time of evolution from doppler-warned to confirmed to particularly dangerous tornado) were much shorter than average, shorter than the radar period or warning-writing timescale.
In 4 out of 5 cases, merging cells result in no intensification of the absorbing cell according to the SPC. This was not one of those cases obviously. In addition, the environment which would have supported an EF5 went from unimpressive to off the charts in 5 minutes roughly. There is NOT a meteorologist in this world who could have seen what was coming until the velocity scans came in probably about the time it was over Joplin. The point is, regardless of how advanced we think our radars are, some events just unfold so quickly that no one could have predicted it.
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This to me is one of the crazier videos:
Whats so crazy about that video is its not even IN the tornado. The wind direction never changes so its def just inflow.
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Did he say manhole covers? I wonder if he was talking about the street ones or the water ones as well? The street ones are huge and heavy and in the road. The water ones are lighter and are just 'lids' that sit on top of the grass on the openings for the water shut-off valve in front of residences.
The water company had to go up and down every street in the area looking for missing covers that either disappeared or were destroyed by heavy equipment running over them, they did this before winter set in so the shut-off valves wouldn't freeze.
Yea, he def said "man hole cover". Not sure if there is a different cover that means that there though. Ill trust you on that one.
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Had the opportunity to sit in on a presentation tonight by the EM director from Joplin. Some notes from his speech.
7,500 residential homes damaged or destroyed
9,200 residents displaced
530 businesses destroyed
30 businesses will not be returning
4,500 employees affected
17,000 tetanus shots given out
The hospital saw an increase of 100 patients every 15 minutes yet the hospital (St Johns) evacuated totally in 90 minutes.
The hospital moved into a basketball arena and they were doing surgery within an hour of opening.
At one point, ambulances waiting to transport were 4 wide and 20 deep.
Freeman Hospital had 10 deep waiting for each of 4 operating rooms.
100% of primary streets were cleared 36hrs after the storm.
5000 emergency services personnel from 435 different agencies responded.
6 total passes were made looking for survivors.
Last alive was rescued on Tuesday.
The tornado removed 31 man hole covers which have never been found.
Three fire trucks destroyed.
Two fire stations destroyed.
3 million cubic yards of debris removed.
90-10 split of reimbursement.
Most sheltered at any point 650
2977 mobile housing units ordered.
569 families needed temp housing.
Currently 453 remain in temp housing.
118,197 volunteers registered for duty
720,834 hours of volunteer service logged.
54 percent of the city has been rebuilt or is being rebuilt at 9 months.
St Johns did NOT shift off its foundation. The upper three floors tilted 3".
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It's pretty much impossible to gauge how wide individual tornadoes are using just visual and damage indicators. I wouldn't put much, if any, weight to declarations of this or that tornado being the widest.
Valid point. But width does seem to have at least some record keeping value considering you cant search for "widest tornado" without Hallum Nebraska showing up in the results.
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Greensburg was wider. Could have meant the actual EF5 damage area was wider or something?
The actual track through the city was about 6 miles so maybe he meant that. It was on the ground outside of the city though like you said.
The picture probably wasn't of the Joplin tornado as it became a wedge pretty quickly. There was an issue where people have been forwarding a picture of a supercell taken by Dick McGowan 2 years ago and they removed the copyright symbol and have been calling that the Joplin tornado. Extreme Makeover Home Edition even forwarded it.
Actually this was what he claimed was Joplin.
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Must be this one:
http://www.usatoday....64/1?csp=34news
The Joplin report should not be construed that the fatalities from the storm were the result of people ignoring warnings, stressed Greg Carbin, warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS' Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.
"There were people who took shelter in basements, but they died," he said. "When a building receives a direct hit from a (EF) 4 or an EF5, there's nothing much you can do."
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If you've watched Jeff Piotrowski's video, EMS help never comes to Iowa street in the hour that he's there pulling people out of the rubble. He actually goes and finds a fire truck from the Carthage fire department at Hampshire Terrace Apts. and leads them back to Iowa street where they start searching for people. Also, on the video, the Joplin Emergency Manager mentions that they sounded the sirens the second time due to police reports from 7th and Blackcat road. Jeff was the one that told them to 'get the sirens going' and that report was relayed back to the emergency center. He also calls the Tulsa, NWS and requests they send as much help as possible to Joplin. I saw a youtube video of a group of people right across from the METS (Joplin ambulance service) barn and as soon as the tornado had went through (and it was still raining heavily), every ambulance was headed out of that barn. I'll always remember the sound of constant sirens later that night and the next day though.
It's just amazing how stretched thin everything is during a disaster such as this. I saw police cars and ambulances days after the tornado from places I've never heard of. I'm assuming they were small towns up near St. Louis or something.
Presentation was pretty good. They talked about how everyone who was injured walked to the hospital yet the hospital was evacuating. Also talked about how they were lucky the generators failed at St Johns or the gas breaks would have caused certain explosions or fires.
Overall not bad. The only thing that got on my nerves a little is he showed a pic of "the joplin tornado" as a picturesque stovepipe with a small debris ball at the base. Def NOT the joplin storm. He also said the total track was 6 miles which we know is wrong. And that it was the widest EF5 in US history. Not sure about that one, I thought OKC May 9th 1999 was wider but Tornado Tony might know.
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There is an article in usa today this morning about public warnings and joplin
Page4A.
Interesting enough I am at a conference in Pittsburgh and the session tomorrow is on the Joplin EMS response.
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The actual track http://www.crh.noaa....11may22_summary
The hi rez goes until it lifts:
Yep. Look at the large lake at the end of that. Directly to the left of the lake you see a long white driveway. Not the driveway going North South, the one to the left of that going East/West. The trailer midway down the driveway is missing its roof and the trees are down which marks the end of the path. Its easy to pick up tree damage now because the leaves turned brown on GE for the ones that fell.
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My bad. The map I had ( http://www.weather.c...plin_2011-05-24 )showed the track ending on the southeast side of Joplin. I didn't realize it continued on that far as I was only focusing on Joplin. Thanks for pointing out my error.
No worries, with this discussion I noticed Google Earth updated to include the damage path now and you can see it ending just Southwest of the large lake Northeast of Granby.
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Actually, based on the image Cyclone posted, they were in fact lucky, with houses leveled immediately to their NW. This is a dumb arguement, Cyclone did a lot of work trying to find where these videos were shot which as a reader is extremely helpful. He was also correct that the tornado bending ESE before lifting caused it to track over the house that particular video was filmed at. He was also correct in stating that if they were not hit by the tornado when it was in its weakening stages that their house may have suffered much more damage, and that perhaps they could have been injured/killed. Based on the image Cyclone has already posted, the tornado was without a doubt weakening when it struck their location:
I think the only thing that's really dumb is the fact that you are rambling on about something that wasn't the point. But hey, if it makes you feel better, good for yas. I said he was wrong about it ending and wrong about it lifting. Which was correct. I never had an issue with his theory on damage. You assumed that.
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huh? The tornado clearly shows a curve to the ESE. It did continue on for quite some time while weakening. I think he was saying that had it not curved ESE, the people there would have sustained less damage. Also, there were areas where EF-4 met EF-1 type damage, it's amazing how you can look at one house that has to be torn down due to the damage, and a house across the street only has shingle damage with windows still intact.
Def agree there about how the winds act. All tornadoes have that kind of tiered damage though in one way or another. I think the most dramatic example of that was Parkersburg where one house was missing a shingle. The one across the street was off its foundation.
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Cyclone is correct in that the tornado was weakening rather quickly at the location that particular video was filmed at, it had already weakened from an EF-5 to EF-4 and was well on its way to an EF-2 at the time. Either way the tornado was done doing its worst damage. That does make a big difference which is why they were "lucky" the tornado hit them while it was weakening and on its way to lifting.
There is nothing correct about being totally wrong. The tornado didn't end there and continued to ruin lives and homes for several more miles. Not sure where you guys are getting this lifting nonsense. Do your research and be right or look foolish being wrong. I have serious doubts the tornado remained in a perpetual lifting point for an additional 12 miles while continuing to do high end EF2 damage. There is nothing "lucky" about that.
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These guys were pretty close to the end of the tornado, and probably would have been missed if it hadn't curved east-southeast before lifting. I'm still amazed at how quickly it went from destroying house after house to no damage at all
What on earth are you talking about? The tornado was on the ground for several miles past the city.
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School damage reported in Frederick, Fairfax and DC. So yeah..again...your dumb slam about PRINCE GEORGES county is about as structurally sound as your post.
Got to admit Randy, Jack Johnson wasnt something to be proud of.
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Quake initiated landslide down in Calvert Cliffs according to MEMA. Lost a PEPCO substation to damage as well.
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I am sorry if you got upset, I was joking.
Cell and landline service were both down for a while here.
No worries. Just didnt get why it seemed cool to drag me into this when I posted nothing at all. -
He is at the EOC talking to the President.
I stopped posting here because of dumbass posts like this one. Do I make fun of your pictures or what you do for a living? Nope, even if I thought they sucked, I would never make fun of you about it. Grow up a little!
Cause whats really fookin funny is when you were trying to make outgoing calls on jammed lines, I was having no problem calling my family in MS to tell them we were ok because I get priority service though GETS and Sat phones in the EOC. A perk that I would gladly extend to anyone here if they needed to know how family was if people werent so damn ugly. So by all means, keep bashing for no reason what so ever.
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Noticed a NWS press release this morning stating that 9 disasters this year have reached 1 billion in damages with over 35 billion spent on recovery this year. This ties the record with 2008.
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JoMo, as a FEMA employee (former TV meteorologist) who led the Public Affairs effort on the ground in Joplin during the first 40 days of recovery, I appreciate your comments. There is a huge number of FEMA personnel who have worked tirelessly to ensure Joplin recovers, and recovers quickly - and they'll be in Joplin for a long time.
As far as the 'FEMA trailers' - as you mentioned, the units that residents are living in right now are not trailers, they are manufactured housing that meet all appropriate air quality standards. They are not the same type of units as used along the Gulf Coast. They are actually quite nice.
My comments are my own and do not reflect the views or opinions of FEMA.
LIKE!!!
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What accounts suggest there was a calm in the center of the tornado? From every video I've seen (One on the lawn and gas station), there was no actual calm. There was an initial burst of high wind (like 70 - 100 mph), followed by the tornado which raged continuously until passing. I've only gathered from discussion that the tornado was wrapped in an envelope of high winds.
There was a def calm during the gas station video. Thats why the guy filming repeatedly says "were good". There was also two different witness statements posted here who said there was a calm in the center as well. The link is on this thread, Ill go back and find it on Tuesday if no one else has.
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I still find the whole calm in the middle like an eye, the most interesting piece of the storm. I have yet to see one person explain why or how that happened beyond a guess. Giving a presentation to Montgomery College and Public Schools tomorrow on lessons learned from this one.
Hurricane Maria
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
I thought about that as well. And those numbers do not reflect Cat 4 hurricanes that became Cat 5. But the satellite era almost certainly plays a roll in numbers.