Master of Disaster

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Yep. It's odd watching the "storm cancel" weenies on the weather forums. They expected recon to find a 920 mb storm or something. LOL

 

I went to bed at 1:30am with absolutely no expectation to wake up to anything more than a Cat 1. I'm surprised so many on these weather forums anticipated more. Ida really shouldn't take off until tonight and Sunday. Now if it's still a Cat 1 in 24 hours, then that might mean a weaker storm.

Wasent it last year everyone was calling for a Sub900 storm only have the first drop record 928? Eta, Iota one of those. 

26 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Some people might say that it is unnecessary to point out sarcasm for an argument that has continued for years, but here we are      

This seriously made me laugh

11 minutes ago, CLTwx said:

SMH...for millions. 

BS they are so well rehearsed with contraflowing I10 they can do it in their sleep. 

1 minute ago, Indystorm said:

And if we do get ERC in the Gulf I assume this would expand the wind field geographically.  I haven't seen much discussion of how large this storm is expected to be ,  And if it gets very powerful in the Gulf this will increase surge and wave action.

The NHC hinted at this wind field expansion with the 5am advisory. 

1 hour ago, csnavywx said:

It would be, but Katrina was not a worst-case scenario for NOLA, believe it or not. It escaped the worst of the wind damage and a further west track would have funneled surge up the mouth of the Mississippi for a longer duration.

In a way this is even worse. Dauphin Island Alabama is the most storm surge prone location in the country. Even a Cat 1 surges the water on the west end to a level they have to close the only access road for days. A Cat 4 would cut that island in half... Again. 

Keep in mind with all this concern about New Orleans that several different projects were completed after Katrina. Together they are suppose to mitigate what happened in Katrina. The Lake Borne protect constructed several flood gates to 16 feet above sea level and the Seabrook Floodgate project has been finished. I am not sure any of it has had a real test yet. It doesn't help that the moment a lot of it was finished they discovered it was sinking and flood gates built to 16 feet don't sound like much with a Cat 4 or 5. Either way that city needs to begin evacuations today. Activate the National Bus Contract and get people in low lying areas out of there.

I don't have much faith in any leader there considering they left a dead man visible in a collapsed building for 6 months. They kept hanging tarps to cover him and those kept blowing away leaving the guys legs all exposed again while Segway companies ran tours for those to take pics of him.

4 hours ago, Hotair said:

 

@USCG

Sector #KeyWest was alerted to people in the water 23 mi SE of KW from the M/V Western Carmen, who rescued 2 survivors. #USCGC Thetis arrived on scene & their small boat crew rescued 10 more people from the water.

 

Hats off to the brave men and women of the US Coast Guard. Just amazing what they do.

I spent 10 years active duty USCG. We appreciate the props. 

Is Josh down there? 

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Tropical  storm is notable 

Not only that. It beat last years record for the earliest 5th named storm. That's def notable. 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Whoa stranger!

Lol always been here. Just never had much to add. I guess I finally took the advice a few of you had been offering for several years that I should read more and post less. I mostly come here to follow Josh's exploits. But on the rare occasion might chime in with something no one really cares about or wants to hear. For old time sake. Anywho, hope all are well. Even Trixie. 

These things have been a nightmare. On no less than 4 different occasions I have had one hitchhike into the bedroom on my clothing. I'll be all under the sheets and all of a sudden one of these starts screeching. The last time I began punching it trying to kill it. I don't even know if this is possible but I almost beat myself to death trying to kill it. 

Just now, yotaman said:

Wow, barely a cat 5. She fooled everyone.

A few called 920s. 

Just now, jpeters3 said:

Highest Raw T on Patricia was 8.3

Jesus!! 

Be kinda cool if they got one of those moonlit stadium effect pics. 

Just now, JakkelWx said:

8.3 now on the dvorak

 

Last time I saw those kinda numbers was Dorian. 

Just now, the ghost of leroy said:

#2 season of all time. It’s earned it. The Greek storms have really carried. 

Gonna be hard to beat Allen. 

1 minute ago, MUWX said:

Sounds like we will have several straight hours of recon this evening/overnight. Two planes currently expected to go in over night, counting the one on the way now. 

Looked like one returned. 

921. 160mph

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

The 1pm upgrade was enough for a record.

 

Banter but did you know he hiked the Appalachian Trail straight through? Took him around 4 months. 

Wonder if there are any Scatter passes over the next few hours? 

1 minute ago, Moderately Unstable said:

See my page 1 or 2 analysis I wrote up yesterday am that answered this question. Short answer is yes. The ohc right now supports a peak storm strength of 900-910mb, which is a cat 5. Statistically it's hard to forecast a cat 5 due to potential ercs.

100% agree. 

Wilma comes to mind with this kinda RI. Anyone think Cat 5 is possible? Havent checked the SSTs yet to see if that will support one. 

Holding off a bit on this one for some reason. No doubt that has a closed circulation now. Why wouldn't they designate it a PTC earlier though? 

3 hours ago, Moderately Unstable said:

Not that the euro is a bad model to use, but in the short-range, using high resolution models, particularly hurricane specific models, will yield more useful predictions. There's a plethora of fine-grained data to use right now from the statistical intensity guidance being put out to ensembles. If you aren't already using tropical tidbits or a similar resource, that is a good place to start.  Any one operational run of a global model isn't helpful in this type of situation. Weather behaves in a "chaotic" manner as time goes further along. A slight error in the initial intensity estimate, the wind field, ocean temp, ocean stratification, wind patterns elsewhere that will later affect the hurricane--all produce exponentially increasing levels of error as you propagate out in time.

Step one--look at the physics. Where is the

For a new guy, your posts are extremely well thought out and informational. Props there. Thats how its done. 

That 25mb drop in pressure is insane. I am not sure even Patricia intensified at that pace.