Master of Disaster

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Alright gentlemen it’s that time.  Let’s make our calls for what recon finds.  I’m going with:

winds: 144 kts flight level

Pressure: 929 mbs

 

24mb in an hour? 

Anyone know if NOAA sent out those weather sail drones this year that penetrate the eyes of these? 

Not sure why I was just thinking about this but just remembered that hurricane two or so years ago that was a high-end Cat 4. Making landfall in central America. The board had several members work themselves up into a frenzy. Recon was inbound and these members began speculating on MB intensity. "It's 905....no it's 895... No it's 893.." When recon arrived the first pass was 927 and an epic meltdown ensure. Everyone pissed off and declaring they are heading to bed. 

I have only been inside a prison twice. Both times to visit my mom. 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

Any one of these in the outer bands could become tornadic:
 

I haven't been following there severe threat. Anything show up worth mentioning today on that topic? 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

On a trip from Alaska to Hawaii on a 180 foot Coast Guard cutter we ran into a storm that was producing 50 foot waves. The ship was rolling so bad you had to tie yourself into your rack to keep from getting tossed out. Even 23 foot seas is no joke. Wasn't it Ivan that produced a 100 foot swell? 

 

There is zero possibility that eye is 20 miles across imo. The eye contracting has been noted for at least two hours. Anyone have a way to measure the distance from eye wall to eye wall? I am curious if sat and radar actually show this or if it just looks that way? 

4 minutes ago, Mello said:

The pinhole eye comments are a bit weenie IMO.  It's more clear on other IR color scales that the eye is not cleared out yet.  And we have radar and relatively recent recon data showing the eye is about 20 mi wide.  The eye will likely clear out in the coming hours.

You felt the need to announce that talking about a pinhole eye is premature but will likely be correct in an hour? 

When is the next recon scheduled? Kinda surprised they are not overlapping them. 

IR now shows the eye clearing out.

3 minutes ago, GoAPPS said:

Pinhole eye forming.

I thought the same thing. The eye is def tightening now. 

Clear hot tower showing up in the NE eye wall. 

6 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Absolutely not.

On visible sat imagery then why is there a clear air inflow channel coming in from the south. Continuing west around the circulation and into the center. I am not doubting you. But I am asking why there is a clear air channel entering the circulation of that's not dry air. 

It kinda looks like dry air is being entrained into the circulation from the south. Maybe I am wrong. 

1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said:

We are now getting a nice burst of lightning in the eyewall.  It's really looking good.

That was gonna be my exact question. If lightning was occuring in the eye wall. 

Infrared does show an eye for the first time just north of the tip of Cuba with lightning popping around it.  

Jesus the IMBY forecast requests seem to be worse this go around than usual. 

16 minutes ago, Prospero said:

In Pinellas County distance from the coast is not what counts, it is the Zone Map. I live five blocks from Boca Ciega Bay, but am about 15ft up in elevation. If we get a surge up to our house, much of Pinellas will be under water, maybe even from the Tampa Bay to the Gulf is some areas way inland.

I use to say 15 foot is absurd but Ian proved a whole lotta people wrong with storm surge. Be safe. 

2 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Ok, need your help.  I'm a lurker whose read this board for awhile.  I have niece who moved from PA to St Pete on Saturday and this is her welcome! She doesnt know if she should leave her apartment, she is on the border of evac zones A&B.  I said she should, but dont want to overreact.  Thoughts?

What's the complex made of and how far is it from the coast? 

FEMA did a study and report a few years ago about phased evacuations. There are 5 parts of the process and like 15 critical factors that determine compliance with an evac order. Some of which are funds available. Family locations. Previous experience and other things. If I can find the report I'll link it. 

I met him in person during a EM class there. All of them were super cool. 

There has got to be a closed circulation under that blob. 

Just now, tim123 said:

How high are the walls 13 feet?

Depends..the new ones are 16

"

Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed. 9 feet or more of inundation is possible
outside the hurricane protection levee on the east bank and
for almost of all of the west bank except for areas near
the Mississippi River. Overtopping of the east bank
hurricane protection levee is possible. Life threatening
inundation is possible"

Don't recall the last time they mentioned overtopping is possible. 

24 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

raw Advanced Dvorak Technique is up to T5.6. It's clearly strengthening. Just have to confirm how much via next recon. 

Isn't that kinda high for a Cat 1?