Fields27

I know its just dumb luck but TWC had most of Berks in the 3-5" and never budged. I think their forecasts are just copy paste of gfs output? Its just crazy how modeling played out with this storm. GFS definitely had the right idea early and didnt flinch. Obviously shifted totals around through out the week but gfs knew this would be a wound up system while every other model struggled with that. Then GFS started shifting east a couple days out but we kinda dismissed it and rode the NAM and Hrrr with their insane totals well north and west. Both those models shifted way east but only right before game time. I guess the signs were there for us north and west. I think the NWS doubling down and holding onto high totals gave us a false sense of security lol. The writing was on the wall and im never putting that much trust in the NAM more than 24 hours out from a storm. Does it suck? Yea but life goes on. Still happy a good chunk of the forum cashed in. I didnt have to miss work, barely any clean up. Ya know, silver lining coping going on over here. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Not gonna lie, this one stings. Knowing what is just 50 miles to our west. Also the rug pull that was the last 24 hours of modeling for western spots. We may have 4" or 5". Can't even tell if it's still snowing by looking at the street lights. Roads are just wet lol. Stoked for those of you getting raked. Ill live vicariously through you guys. That band over Philly has got to be amazing. Enjoy! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Same. Where are you located exactly? Im just north of Reading in Hyde Park.

I was just about to post this. I think we found the cutoff. Of course Im just barely on the wrong side. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Nice run. Still snowing through the end of the run for most of the sub. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Very curious to see how far west that band can get. I think then we will have a better idea of where the sharp cutoff will be. Currently under moderate snow which is fine but with temps will struggle to pile up. Need those heavier echoes. Everything caved besides treated roads. 33* Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Its early but it just seems like the heavies are really struggling to progress west. We are on schedule with the change over. Snow is picking up in intensity. Seeing a few posts about the coastal originating further west than modeled. Which always seems to be a wieney mirage in a storm like this. But if this is true you would think the hrrr would pick up on that and correct back west with some of the heavier totals. Its steadfast in the Berks and Lehigh area on the outside looking in. Will be interesting to see unfold. To those of you well west of me, congrats and enjoy your blizzard! If you dont mind, send some of it our way lol. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Finally have some snow mixing in. Reading, 37* Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

No no I know you weren't. Sorry if it sounded like that I was just kind of piggy backing off of what you were saying. Always love reading your posts. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

People need to chill the fuck out. The coastal literally just popped off the NC coast. Nothing is off schedule as of yet. No meaningful snow was projected until late afternoon/night. We have a low bombing out with a ton of energy to work with. New hrrr looks great and stops the bleeding but we seriously need to stop living and dying by each and every model run. Its insanity. Let this play out and enjoy. Radar looks great. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Yes, this is hr 40. HRRR doesnt stop snowing until about hour 43. Even in Berks/Lehigh. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

966 mb @ hour 48

Nam kutchera is just stupid insane totals. But again has the edge of Ccb in a similar spot to gfs. Western Berks 9" and eastern 26". Kutchera of course.

6z gfs is noise level change im terms of track. However it did cut back totals a smidge. How far west that CCB gets is going to cause chaos. Verbatim with kutchera, western Berks get 7" and eastern gets 2 ft lol. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Definite lean left on those slp's too Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Highly doubt it's done trending too. Man if you told me we would be here when the Gfs was on an island I would have called you crazy. This is getting fun. Still a day and a half for trends. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Off to a good start today. Models should start honing in on a solution today. Would be nice to trend in the right direction this close to gametime for once. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Agreed. Its hard not to get excited with these insane solutions but like you said, it's even harder to get a storm of that magnitude in these parts. We fall for it time and time again. Especially this winter when models are struggling even inside 5 days. Not to mention we haven't been in the type of pattern that is conducive of big wrapped up lp's climbing the east coast. Almost everything trends more flat, strung out, and suppressed recently. I hope im wrong. I just can't forget the numerous head fake insane snow maps 5 days out just to watch it fizzle out to another "storm that was so close." Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Well if there is any model I'd feel confident leading the way it's the Euro. Also where the hell would we go with all the snow?! My god that would shut down the entire northeast. All good problems BTW. Strap in! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

What a freaking storm. Even with the sleetfest this afternoon ended up being, it was still very enjoyable. Ended up with 8.6" snow and then 1.5" sleet for a storm total of just over 10" just N of Reading. Stay safe yall! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Its crashing back down east very quickly. That could be our golden goose. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Can yall keep that CC mix line moving east? Thanks! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

I just noticed the same about the mix line out west. Let's see how far east it can come. Crank coastal, crank! Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk

Ugh I hope so. Those snow rates before the flip were insane! Let's get that coastal cranking and see if it can cool the column. Sent from my SM-S938U using Tapatalk