The Alchemist

9.5 inches at 29˚/29˚ here in Saluda.  Heavy dime sized flakes with a light breeze. Rates look to be about 2.5 inches an hour.  (Rates extrapolated from a 15 minute accumulation measurement.). Was out moving snow of the deck and ramp, could here creaking and popping branches.  Power has blinked several times the past few hours, really don't expect it to last the night.  

About 3.5 here in Saluda NC.  Very fine flakes, very wet snow.  I would call it moderate snow at 32.6˚

4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

It has begun here. 36 with a rain/sleet snow mix. 

BOOM

Question becomes which short-term hi-res model is best?  3km NAM, HRRR, or RGEM?

I had read somewhere (maybe this site) that the HRRR is good with moisture, the NAM is good with temperature and the RGEM is good with airflow, does that still hold true? or is that just one viewpoint?

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38/29 with a light rain in Saluda NC


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Cantore is headed to boone!

He’s headed in the wrong direction. I’m thinking the jackpot area is Brevard/Hendersonville, really think 18” is a possibility

Edit, the clown maps with 27 “ are really pretty to look at, just don’t think they’re that realistic. I’d love to be proven wrong

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Am I correct in thinking that with the upslope effect and the storm possibly tracking a little to the south that Saluda/Flat Rock/ Hendersonville might be the sweet spot?


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3 minutes ago, bess said:

Its brick!!!

There goes the neighborhood!!!

Sitting at 36.2/35.8 here in Saluda NC, Might not amount to anything down this way but a cold rain....

576?!?! Holy crap!!! I had to do the math to figure that out 24 days out... yeah like that will happen... I’m as much a weenie as the next guy and I’d love it if it verifies... but I never knew any model ran that far out

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Well, we had 64˚ for a low this morning in Saluda NC, so it's a start.  However 64˚ with fog is still crappy fall weather.  I noticed two things last night.  The poplar trees are dropping brown leaves and the underbrush behind my house is fading in color.  Also, the Katydids are even tired of this heat, they stopped their nightly calls last night completely.

Holy crap at the 18z gfs. Would be absolutely catastrophic for most of NC especially the mountains. Widespread foot of rain looks like from the tt maps. Maybe more.
 
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I think I spy a frost advisory for the upper half of Minnesota, a cool down can’t be too far away... hopefully!!!


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Wow even the banter thread is quiet tonight ... this cold dry airmass really suppresses everything....


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