JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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This has been a hugely successful storm thread. Look at all those pages! -
I guess my point is, the overall further east (wider swing) evolution vs prior runs makes sense given the change in the trough. so why try to find other reasons to explain it when it did exactly what you would expect based on how it changed earlier in the run?
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complete lack of continuity. the fact that it's not designed to be the best model at resolving large scale features and h5 patterns. its epically bad performance this season at trying to do so. anything else?
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based on watching every model run for basically a week now, it sure seems like it is what is impacting it.
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was just going to say...people should look before posting
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fwiw, the NAM should be thrown out by default. maybe when the storm is already starting to develop, we can look at it for banding. maybe
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It was because it held back the shortwave in the s/w waaay more than it had for several runs, so the trough ended up further east. but the northern stream changes were good imho. so we need the southern stream to revert to not holding back as much. it is a big change that it just made, so again, I'd love some continuity there. then again, euro has definitely been moving towards holding it back more.
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I'm sorry, sad man puppy eyes. Here, I hope this cheers you up!
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right. and even if it wins that, if the northern stream comes in yet a little stronger still, it can offset that anyway
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there's a tiny little low there that the map put the big red L on, but if you actually look at where the center of the main circulation is, it's fine.
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And this storm is Jimmy Garoppolo
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There's definitely things I like better about that run. Obviously the holding back in the sw is not one of them, but it also made a big jump with that from 6z. Maybe people should wait for a little continuity before leaping off the bridge.
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the streams are definitely phased better
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you aren't kidding...welcome to 5 runs ago
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pffffffff I see that we got our NAM stupid run. another box to check off the list
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do you think we start to see some waa precip beef up on the models as we get closer? seems like with the biggies, that was always something we looked out for
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I'm just being realistic. I generally don't agree with the concept of throwing out ensemble clusters you don't like unless they are way outside the spread of the global OP runs over several cycles. I wasn't seeing any major clustering on the EPS that I was comfortable completely tossing. So I said as much, to someone who posted something to the effect of doing that.
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yet somehow, tick tick tick east every run with the mean qpf those clusters are basically the gfs. they aren't skewing anything. They are within the realm of possibility.
