JC-CT
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Everything posted by JC-CT
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verbatim yeah it still looks good. less good than before, but definitely good. the problem is that it is becoming hard to ignore the multi-cycle trend -
we could just rename the title of this one
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as tip alluded to...just wholly unimpressive compared to prior runs. sad.
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because it was over bermuda at 6z
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i know you are kidding, but that opportunity is long gone
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it's very amped with the northern stream
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it is, which means it will bury in the sw more
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yeah but once you get inside 5 days, they still have more skill than the run 6 hours prior. the time becomes more important than the extra obs at some point. although maybe in a world of reduced commercial air traffic, that's changed a little
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navgem understands the inflow!
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pretty sure only the navgem has the sophistication to be able to properly capture the banding location
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well well well, mr. my new favorite model
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man, some new data must have got into this 12z suite. really hope we get some better data in the next couple cycles.
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yeah, I mean typical as in a smaller circulation
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Now where the hell is the navgem
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My crown is slowly disintegrating in front of us. Long live the queen
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thx. for my future forecasting reference, would you say that you are expecting it to be further west than a typical noreaster?
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that gradient is from BOS to like Fall River on the GFS. Getting back to put the meat over ORH would be considerably west of that, wouldn't it?
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you think it will be that far nw of the 700 fronto? that would be 70 miles from the northwest edge of best fronto at 78 on the GFS
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Haven't been many to analyze this year, anyway
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Agree with your point as well. I don't think we have quite honed in on a final answer as to how the most complicated process of the storm will play out. We are getting closer, but not yet. Changes in the actual storm dynamic can have positive effects that could help negate a less favorable trough.
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I think it's a premature cancel, even if the Euro does move east. Sometimes these things all take in incomplete data that skew that output the same way, only to all correct the same way in a following cycle. It's still 84 hours out.
