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Luftfeuchtigkeit

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Posts posted by Luftfeuchtigkeit

  1. 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

    What part of town are you in? I'm far west side near Mineral Point & the Beltline. @madwx, what are you seeing?

    SW by Raymond Rd and Verona Rd. 

    3.2" now. I think 4-6" is in the bag.

    Congrats RGEM on consistently showing higher amounts for us. Most of the other models showed a mix and/or main precip farther north.

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  2. It started with light snow around 9am, but now we're getting big wet flakes. Probably already half an inch down. I was expecting very little with this storm because of the northerly track and mixing with rain, but if it keeps this up very long we're going to get more than expected.

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  3. RGEM and GFS  have both moved west with the low track on the 12Z runs, but neither is as far west as the NAM. Farther west position gives Madison more snow. GFS still showing mostly rain which seems wrong, at least around here.

    I had 1.3" this morning and it's really pretty. Still very light snow falling and accumulating, very slowly.

     

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  4. 1 hour ago, CheeselandSkies said:

    Wow, big time wallop looking likely for central WI. That map above has Madison flirting with double digit totals, although we whiffed on our previous opportunity to hit that single-storm benchmark earlier this winter.

    Still, what a turnaround from the bare ground of December and most of the first half of January, although the two thaws were annoying especially the second coming on the heels of the historic polar vortex.

    This looks like a big storm for Madison with most models showing .75" QPF or more, and should be the biggest snowfall of the winter. I'm approaching it with more skepticism though, because the last storm 8" seemed like a lock, but we ended up with extremely small flake size and 10:1 ratios even with temps in the teens and only 5-6".

    This storm my list of things to watch include:

    - possible delay of heavy snow onset this evening due to dry air, suggested by HRRR and RAP

    - flake size, ratios (thinking ~12:1 with temp of 27?)

    - how soon will dry slot push in (4am or will heavy snow hold on longer), also will there be any heavier snow during the day Tuesday

    The way it looks right now I think we're good for the 6-9" that NWS is forecasting.

     

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  5. .85" last night in my backyard in Madison. Not a ton of rain, but it's been saturated for weeks here and just keeps coming. The area lakes are still less than a foot below the record level they hit a few weeks ago, so if we do happen to get any of the heavier rain in the next week it will be bad news and probably new records.

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