Jump to content

mitchnick

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    22,344

  • Joined

 Content Type 

Posts posted by mitchnick

    2024-2025 La Nina

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

    Neutral/La Nada is extremely unlikely this year, besides the point though. That aside, when was the last time, in the last 10 years that DT hasn’t put out a cold and snowy in the East forecast going into the season, only to do a complete 180 and retract it mid-winter, then go on to attack and lambaste anyone who disagrees with with him, calling them idiots, morons, cursing at them like a sailor, wishing diseases on them and going on profanity filled rants? 

    Personally, none of that bothers me about DT. Subtract from it a lot of it intended for the shock humor value, and there's little left imho.

    But I  do think he relies on the Euro more than one should in light of the gains in other modeling. It just ain't what it used to be relative to other guidance, at least when it comes to winter forecasting in the MA imho. But it can still score a coup or 2 which forces you to give it more weight than you should, again imho.

     

    • Like 1

    2024-2025 La Nina

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, raindancewx said:

    https://x.com/Claudiashein

    I'm kind of tempted to ask Mexico's new president about seasonal forecasting models in Mexico or in general. It's a weird thing, thinking a politician could answer that or discuss that with a US president to improve our weather forecasting. 

    The heat wave in MX seems tied to delayed monsoon onset as much as anything. Here is what AI had to say. It's pretty consistent with my own research. I've also found August/Sept tend to be wetter than July at statistically significant levels locally using a difference in proportions test at the 0.05 level with high v. low, July-June annualized solar activity.

    What kind of winter does the US tend to see following a delayed start to the monsoon in Mexico?

     

    Answer
    Based on the provided search results, a delayed start to the monsoon season in Mexico tends to be followed by a drier than normal winter across the southwestern United States, including states like New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of Texas. Here are the key points:
    • There is an inverse relationship between winter precipitation in the southwestern U.S. and the strength/timing of the subsequent North American Monsoon. A wet winter is generally followed by a weaker/later monsoon (Me: we had a wet winter in 2023-24), while a dry winter precedes a stronger/earlier monsoon onset.
    • If the monsoon gets a late start in Mexico, with precipitation increases delayed until late June or July, this tends to signal an early end to the monsoon rains in the U.S. Southwest as well. The monsoon moisture surge progresses northward from Mexico.
    • A late monsoon onset in Mexico is often linked to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific (me - which we have), which can suppress the monsoon circulation and moisture transport. Warmer Gulf of Mexico temperatures (me - which we have) can enhance moisture flow into Mexico and the Southwest during an earlier monsoon onset.
    • When the North American Monsoon starts late in Mexico, climate models project a decrease in monsoon rainfall over the southwestern U.S. in July and August, followed by an increase in September and October compared to normal. This suggests a delayed, shorter monsoon season.
    • The delayed timing of the monsoon rains may be more impactful than the total precipitation amount. A late monsoon onset preceded by a dry winter would likely lead to an extended dry period in the fall across the Southwest before the arrival of winter precipitation.
    So in summary, when the monsoon rains are delayed in getting established over Mexico, it serves as an indicator that the upcoming winter is more likely to be drier than average across New Mexico, Arizona and surrounding states due to the inverse relationship between winter and monsoon precipitation in this region.

    Drier out your way would probably suggest High Pressure overhead. Might result in more troughiness in the east...he says with gleam in his eyes. Or maybe that's just because I woke up at 4:30. :oldman:

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    2024-2025 La Nina

    in Weather Forecasting and Discussion

    Posted

    20 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

    I bought into that to a degree...not due to JB....I don't even read him. In a way, it was the same trap that I fell into this year, but at least now I realize it. Getting things wrong and progress are not mutually exclusive. Its a lack on insight into what led one astray that ultimately precludes progress, which is why refusal to admit error is so detrimental. 

    Hey, seasonal forecasts from most modeling was all in too with a decent east coast winter on balance, not to mention the Euro weeklies. Get the Indian Ocean to cool along with other global oceans along the lines of what most modeling is showing, and we'll have our chances this winter imho. But the modeling has got to be closer to right than wrong on the matter unlike their forecasts for last winter.

    Obviously, there's nothing pointing to a blockbuster winter in the east, but how often does that happen and be right? Some winters that looked cr@ppy on paper beforehand have managed to dump some decent snows imby when I  lived near BWI, and they, plus a few more, did likewise in my current location. 

    • Like 2

    Central Pa. Spring 2024

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Thanks, yes I would have the stuff between attic and ceiling sealed first.   What I am worried with blown in is the mess AND I will need a new AC unit (blower in attic) eventually so that mess would get in the way.  But the sealing worries such as off gassing or not giving the shingles enough air to breath is what has me worried.   I wish I could just do batts but apparently that is not good enough.  Did you do cellulose or fiberglass blow in?

     

    Fiberglass.  R48

    I needed new vent fan ducts, so I  had those taken care of so the fibergless remained undisturbed.  If you don't have that in the works in the foreseeable future, have them put batts over the area that would get disturbed by the new AC blower. That way they can be pulled if before and during work then replaced. Just a thought.

    • Like 1

    Central Pa. Spring 2024

    in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

    Posted

    35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    Need attic insultation...Spray foam the bottom of the room or blow in?

    I went blown in. Foam does burn and there are some who claim problems with off-gasing, but you'd want to do some research on that. Also, future wiring changes are challenging with foam.

×
×
  • Create New...