madwx

Guessing it’s more around 0.5-0.7% when it’s all said and done. Started around the high end at the beginning and will get to the lower end as we get better treatments. Some states like Utah and Alaska have a CFR in that range right now

North Dakota only has 13 ICU beds available. The city of Bismarck only has 1 left. I'm guessing the closest city with ICU beds is hours away

I think the biggest lesson is that you can't completely eradicate the disease in western societies, so the big goals are the slow the spread by encouraging mask wearing, not allowing mass gatherings and letting people who can work from home work from home and other common sense measures to keep hospital numbers down

the ride never ends

looks like troughing last over the east for at least a week or two. The GEFS and CFS have a relatively weak vortex through the period which goes hand and hand with the blocking pattern.

Looks like a chance for more development in the Western Caribbean after 10/15, but climo says that should stay east of Louisiana

If that's the case I'll have started the most popular thread in forum history. My only hope is for more moisture, in whatever form. I can handle warm if there are storms to track

With all the COVID talk and the fact that we're weeks into Fall already we need a fresh start on this board. This upcoming week is going to be lovely but the lack of rain/severe this fall has been disappointing. Hoping with can get some dynamic fall systems toward the end of the month that can bring some rain/wind/severe and backside snow.

lockdowns aren't really practical at this point in terms of limiting spread. Really two things can help things from getting out of hand, rapid testing like the kind that was approved by the WHO today and no large indoor events.

shut down the bad math and lack of fact checking that pervades our media. I agree

Lol still not understanding the difference between percent and ratio. I just used that same chart to prove what was wrong with the numbers. Look on the left side. Infection fatality ratio.

see my post above with the actual CDC data. Fox News was using bad math

classic misinterpretation of the percentage or as some people like to say today, fake news. The actual data is in a ratio but this mainstream media org just slapped a percent at the end instead of moving the decimal two places to the right like you should when converting from a ratio to a percent. so it's really .003% for 0-19, 0.02% from 20-49, 0.5% for 50-69 and 5.4% for 70+.

Living in the upper midwest, especially if I had darker skin I would be taking daily vitamin D supplements. I'm as pale as a ghost but I'm still taking daily vitamin D.

An update on future risks now that we have Vicki) 1. The area of disturbed weather in the SW Gulf of Mexico has gotten more convectively active. Euro ensembles more bullish on this system as it meanders through the southern Gulf over the next week. 2. The latest wave to come off Africa looks fairly robust and slow development should occur as it moves across the Atlantic at a fairly low latitude. 3. Have to watch the area off the SE coast for tail end development from the cold front that will kick Sally out. Relative model consensus on an area of low pressure developing and this is a climatologically favored area. 4. Another wave will be coming off Africa later this week, though this one looks to be at a higher latitude so not sure how much potential for development there will be. 5. Very long range (post 9/21) but there is a chance for something out of the CAG off the coast of Nicaragua/Honduras.

Most likely Wilfred or a greek name. Vicky will probably go to 97L as it heads NW from the Cabo Verde islands

In addition to the 5 active areas in the atlantic right now(Paulette, Rene, TD 19, 95L in the central Atlantic and the recently added 97L in the far eastern Atlantic) there are a few more areas to keep an eye on. 1. A spin in the Gulf of Mexico S of New Orleans: This area is highlighted by the NHC and it will slowly move SW in the Gulf over the next few days. 2. An area of convection in the SW Gulf of Mexico: not much of anything at the surface but convection has been festering E of Veracruz for at least the past day now. 3. The Euro Ensembles are fairly consistent with a low latitude wave moving off of the Africa coast in the next couple days. 4. Any spinups along the ITCZ, especially just east of the Leeward Islands though this is much more of a long shot. And if that wasn't enough, the Euro Ensembles are already showing at least another wave or 2 moving off of Africa after this weekend.

Spain, France and a few other European countries are having a rough time again. They really took the foot off the gas for social distancing measures and are now paying the price.

The ride never ends

Come on guys. It’s not man made climate change, it’s just man made changes to the environment that are making things warmer

In addition, Chicago, Tampa, Miami, Harrisburg and a few dozen other cities have also had their warmest summer on record

>trying to forecast 240 hours out >not using ensembles pick one

That's the tough thing about this. There is no telltale symptom that everyone has so for a good portion of people, without getting testing you have no idea if you have/had it.

if you get a test and are negative you don't have to quarantine. How would you know if you never really were negative?