frostfern
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Posts posted by frostfern
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The sun is out and its nice and humid. I can feel the warm front inching back north.
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Hoping a train sets up at some point with this pattern. Nice one over northern lower at this point. Models showing mostly boring stratiform for here though.
EML is all eaten up by time the front is nearby.
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22 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:
You called that pretty good like over an hour in advance
Not really, but thanks.
No damage reports, so it was a weak EF0 at best (doubt it gets any confirmation). The hail, well that definitely over-performed. The sun wasn’t even out most of the day so I wasn’t even expecting to hear thunder. It’s impressive to get severe hail with dewpoints in the 40s. It’s more common at high altitudes, like Colorado.
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Tornado warned mini-supercell just to my south. Sirens went off. Too bad its dark.
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Rotating cell.
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Best lightning bolts since Feb 7.
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Its got a little rotation on it. Kinda high based though.
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Nice rumbler off to my north. Heavy graupel / small hail producer.
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Might be a nice triple-point moving through here tomorrow. I hope the trend is to slow it down.
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15 hours ago, mnchaserguy said:
Also, how many times have we had a white Halloween and Easter and a green Christmas?
.Possible up your way. The next system looks to immediately melt it all here.
Kind of useless this time of year. I’ll take it now if April can flip back to warm / thunder.
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2 hours ago, Lightning said:
That explains a lot. I was wondering why the turned them off seemingly so quickly during the warnings I had last couple years. Makes sense to me.
That's weird because I've had the opposite experience a few years ago. I thought maybe they went off again because another warning was issued for areas farther east and I just happened to be in the overlap (though the event, which was ruled a localized straight line wind event, actually missed me by about 5 miles). Turning them on to indicate the risk is over would make absolutely no sense to me though. I figured it had to do with overlapping warnings issued in succession.
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7 hours ago, Harry Perry said:
Had too much going on here to post. Had not one, not two, not three.. but FOUR bouts of hail. Each subsequent cell that passed had larger hail, starting at pea size and ending with golf ball/baseball sized hail. The tornado warned cell had a low base visible with lightning off to my southwest. Woke my wife and daughter and told them it was time to go to the basement the same time the sirens went off. They went to the basement and of course I went back outside to make sure it behaved. All local sirens sounded for 2-3 minutes then shut off for the rest of the storm - have some questions for my Emergency Managers on that issue.
As the storm approached, could clearly see the base rotating but extremely hard to see much more than that. Was completely still and quiet with frequent lightning and constant rumbling. Could begin hearing what sounded like a freight train. Kept an eye on velocity scans and CC scans. Sound got louder and louder until the trees began swaying - then another eerie sound of banging started - almost sounded like someone slamming their door repeatedly in the distance, and that’s when the first golfball sized stone smacked the road out front, then the next nailing my two day old new truck sitting in my driveway… wind really picked up and went un-directional and the hail came down in buckets covering the road and yard. Got more hail than snow so far this month.
Quick look at radar showed the couplet miss my house by an half of a mile to the north which would agree with the velocity scans.Then, hail finally subsided after approximately 10 minutes but lots of CG’s began just to my southwest. Checked the radar to see the cell behind the tornado warned cell getting its shit together showing massive hail signatures of course, heading directly my way. Went in and checked on the fam, came back up and that’s when the HEAVY marble size hail started with intermittent monsters (golfball to baseball). Obliterated both trucks, again and clearly destroyed both this time around.
Just as the cell would pass and the hail and rain would subside, it would backbuild causing random golfball sized hail to keep falling every few seconds. Was at this time my fire radio stated there was a confirmed tornado on the ground near F Drive North and 26 mile road and near Rice Creek with damage to structures and multiple trees down. Checked velocity and CC to see a tight couplet with a clear debris signature on the previous scan over the aforementioned area.
Long night. Expensive night. Then my daughter woke up at 4:30 (after going to bed at 2) with the stomach flu. Second time this month. I’m beat. Hate it here.
Wow. Glad you're okay. Hail damage sounds bad.
The 2-3 times I've heard the sirens they went off after the storm had passed and all the risk was over. Not always much you can do with brief spin-ups, but the warning was issued like 8 minutes after the first CC drop scan with that one tornado last August, which was pretty bad.
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Anyone from Battle Creek up and have internet connection?
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5 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:
That looks like an absurdly large and powerful tornado.
It's hard to tell how strong it is. It's far from the radar and I can't distinguish side lobe artifacts from actual wind speeds. I don't see a huge CC drop, but its not so close to the radar.
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I really should not have dismissed the possibility of tornadoes at night.
Rotation headed straight for Battle Creek is nasty.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1201 AM EST Wed Feb 28 2024 The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northern Calhoun County in south central Michigan... * Until 100 AM EST. * At 1201 AM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Galesburg, or 9 miles southwest of Battle Creek, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Battle Creek, Springfield, and Level Park-Oak Park around 1205 AM EST. Brownlee Park around 1210 AM EST. Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Marshall. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! && LAT...LON 4242 8530 4242 8472 4225 8472 4217 8529 TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 254DEG 32KT 4226 8540 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN $$ NJJ -
16 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:
Just to reference for everyone on here, NWS defines ‘Elevated Convection’ on their meteorological discussion glossary as this:
https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php
- - -And I never wrote that ‘elevated’ and ‘high-based’ storms were indeed the same and I already explained what high-based normally, or better yet, logically means.
’High-based’ though, can be interpreted differently because it is not an existing term in the NWS glossary.
But, SPC also uses both terms in their convective discussions (and it’s been like that for a lot of years now as I’ve seen & read). Each forecaster may very well have a different interpretation of what's actually ‘High-based’ to them. But they could also just be meaning ‘Elevated’ at the same time too because there doesn’t seem to be an actual top layer criteria that strictly defines an elevated storm, looking at that NWS definition.
’Surface-based’ is indeed in their glossary as well. But it obviously has no room for individual interpretation because it inevitably means storms that are based within the surface layer (very near the ground), as written on there.
Okay.
At this time of year in the eastern regions of the US high based storms are usually also elevated and non-severe. So yea, in this context what you said makes sense. It just seemed like an overgeneralization to say "high base" means non-severe, so I responded. No need to nitpick anymore. We both get it.
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3 minutes ago, Indystorm said:
Probably because moisture is not all that high in the sixties but the contras is great for this time of year
I remember March 31 didn't have super high dewpoints. Only low 60s at best. Low LCLs AND good instability still happened because it was cold aloft. Same here. The warm sector was a little broader and deep layer shear was stronger though. That seems like the only thing off. The best shear arrives after dark.
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1 minute ago, Indystorm said:
17 point dew point spread between Davenport IA and Princeton IL 41 to 58
I noticed that too. Significant dryline with actual warmth behind it in February is wild.
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Anyone else notice the super sharp dryline forming over Missouri and Illinois? I don't think I've ever seen a dryline like that so far north and east.
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Sorry for being pedantic. I think you know what you’re talking about but you aren’t using the correct terminology.
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Elevated and high based don’t mean the same thing. You can have either one and not the other. Out west you often have high based storms that are still rooted in the boundary layer, because the boundary layer is extremely deep. Storms that move over Lake Michigan are almost always elevated, technically, in the spring and summer because surfaces based parcels are rarely unstable, but the cloud base is often way lower than what you’d see in Colorado, New Mexico, or Arizona.
Neither elevated or high based is ideal for tornadoes, but other types of severe weather are not uncommon at all. High based storms over a deep boundary layer are notorious for causing downbursts because the negative buoyancy for downdrafts is extreme. It happens out west all the time. Last spring an elevated supercell a few miles from where I live produced tennis ball sized hail with a surface temperature in the low 50s.
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12 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:
Normally the risk of all severe hazards is virtually non-existent in very elevated or high-based storms.
That’s not really true. High based storms can be extremely severe. It’s only really an issue for tornadoes.
4/25-4/28 Severe and Heavy Rain Threat
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
Storms actually missed north yesterday. There was some decent hail near Ludington. This just isn't a Great Lakes setup though. It's a plains setup.
Best bet for stronger convection farther north and east looks to be next week Thursday. Still uncertainty though. Still way better pattern than last year at this time when there were hardly any storms anywhere in the US. Keeping my fingers crossed there is no blocking again this May. That just killed spring storm season last year.