FlatLander48

Finally on the road to Boone! Let’s reel it in!!!

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I fully expect sleet here but I doubt we get freezing rain

I'm hoping not, but the Nam being stubborn with it has me just a tad concerned. Have to see here in just a couple hours once the HRRR has the storm truly in it's wheelhouse and see how it looks on the hourly runs.

I think it's time people start buying the fact that sleet/ Freezing rain is gonna make an appearance.

Granted it's nowcast really instead of looking at models, but it does concern me a tad that the Nam has gradually reduced totals for the northern counties as we've gotten closer. But shall see what happens.

2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

TWC going BALLS OUT with my forecast LOL 

lol for Boone, they simply put "a foot or more" on sunday. and 1-3 Saturday night and Sunday night.

4 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Such a good look to it:

 

i'm not buying a transition to sleet for the northern mountains. that is typically the LAST place that ever changes over. guess we shall see soon enough

57 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Looks like somebody might need to start a thread soon for next weekend.    Who brings the most luck east of the mountains?

I nominate the blue turd. I believe it worked out before. assuming we're still using that nickname lol

Just now, BretWx said:

Got to run errands and take a quick breather (LOL) . I'll be back around lunch time. 

You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lol

10 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

I'm amazed you even got a room. Town was PACKED last night.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
 

I got lucky and found a room at 2 am this morning. Had to use all my Hilton honors points and it still cost $45 lol

Clocking into work, hope to be done by 5 so I can be in Boone by 7. Almost gametime!!!! (Also I forgot it was MLK weekend, hotel prices are astronomical)

5 minutes ago, BretWx said:

LOL 

 

I'll cash out right now. Ready to wake up tomorrow morning (I'm staying up for at least the GFS run if not more) and read the obs reports before I head to Boone after work!

7 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I remember using this back in the day (a few years ago) - I wonder if the data is outdated or...? The banner at the top says you need NWS login. Ha!

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KAVL

Although I think it's the same data, I use this site : https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ and no mention of a update or NWS login.

Oh wait no, the one I linked is in relation to the Nam I believe, and yours is GEFS.

i'm not sure what to think of the 18Z Nam. It's almost making me think the original LP isn't wanting to do the energy transfer, the part that acts as the wrap around has been looking better held together at the Gulf, almost as if saying it's trying to stay a Miller A instead of a hybrid. Might be a dumb description but it's strange to watch the past few Nam runs.

2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Will 10:1 be more accurate with this storm?

Kuchera is designed to "always" be more accurate, as it takes into account different ratios, not just have a set 10:1

4 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I would rather he bring the cold, if it’s all the same to the rest of you.  

Hey now, I really will bring out the lights out post  (To be fair, the models do actually kinda make home (Monroe) in a bad spot for that, that's why I'm headed up the hill)

Still loading the 12z CMC on my PC. but the LP is further SE than the previous run. (Again, not huge differences at this point but any little change helps/hurts)

Just now, BretWx said:

Let me know if the PBP is too much. I'm off today and watching this like a hawk, ha! 

Nah, keep it up, you're bringing the heat.

Pulling hairs, but 12z GFS looks to have everything ever so slightly South of 6z at hr 42

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

I just officially checked out of this event. Not sure when there will be another chance if there is at all. The wait is always the hardest part after a brutal blow like this.

I'll let that talk, plenty of potential overall over the next couple of weeks for something else to pop off.

Still has some frames to load, but ICON looks juicy. Granted as always it's the ICON,

NGL, I'm a tad concerned by all of a sudden sleet and FrZ rain maybe making an impact as well since the original LP is jumping over the mountains so far north.

I blame the energy in the Dakotas on the 18z NAM at 72 as being the difference maker.

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

 

I was just about to post about him. Looks like he’s now really starting to sounds the alarm for a pretty intense icy zone for parts if not most of the piedmont.

To no surprise, another big Thwack from the EPS. 

14 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Also I think sometimes convection along the coast can reduce precip totals for the Piedmont. Something to watch.

I could be mistaken, but that is generally a concern if everything remains at a positive tilt, whereas once this one get cranking I believe it goes negative tilt, so that doesn’t become as much of a concern.