wawarriors4

Just had Thundersnow just NW of FXBG

Eyeballing 3.5” If not 4” just NW of FXBG. It’s some of the heaviest snow I’ve seen.

Easily over 2” now, absolutely just dumping just NW of FXBG

Absolutely dumping Snow, 31/31

about 1.5” down so far

Heavy Snow, 31/31

Everything has caved and is accumulating 

Does anyone have a guess on the wind potential for tomorrow….in an area where power can go out rather easily. With heavy wet snow clinging to trees and such, wondering if wind could cause issues.

ETA: 41/33

43/34 down here NW of FXBG. It’s cooled down faster than I anticipated, still 11 to go tho.

2 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

I have seen  forecast as high as 12 but I am not buying it.

I've seen that as well. I like 6-10" around FXBG, the potential is there tho for 12"+ Hoping we are ripping fatties tomorrow morning....

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Thinking a solid 8 inches for you.  

Don't get me to excited, taking a cautious approach but hopeful to make a run at double digits.....Eastern Loudoun added to the Winter Storm Warning FWIW.

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

What’s up iackpot?  I call u that because I think it’s correct…and it’s a cool name 

I like the name, things are well, cautiously optimistic, looking forward to snow waffles tomorrow morning. Feels like 7" o/u is a good place....

49/41 Just NW of Fredericksburg, VA

LWX AFD

Dramatic shifts in guidance over the past 12 hours for a
potential snowstorm tonight through midday Monday for the 
southern half of our CWA, bisecting very close to the major 
metropolitan areas. 

Digging H5 trough over the southern plains will amplify today,
cut-off an upper low tonight over the Carolinas, then go 
negative tilt as it crosses the mid-Atlantic coast Monday 
morning. The reflection at the surface will be the development 
of low pressure, rapidly deepening and tightening tonight over 
the southeast US to a position over Cape Hatteras by daybreak
Monday. At the same time, cold Canadian air will quickly filter
in aloft, bringing H85 temps well below 0C for much of the 
entire CWA by 12Z Monday. 

00Z GFS, ECMWF, NAM all have at least advisory level snowfall 
accumulations essentially south of I-66/US-50. 05Z NBM, which 
was followed closely in development of snowfall accumulations 
this morning, dampens the largest snowfall contributor -- the 
GFS, and splits the difference between that model and the 
lesser accumulating NAM. Because of the large variations and
the dramatic shift in guidance, advisories have been issued west
of I-95 where the precipitation onset will start shortly after
midnight tonight, and watches issued along and E of I-95. There
will be a tight gradient of snowfall accumulation north of the
Nation's Capital, and potential warnings and advisories will
most certainly be modified as guidance hopefully converges with
a solution over the next 12 hours.

The most likely snowfall forecast should be used with caution,
with probabilities of higher amounts, towards the 90th 
percentile, should strongly be considered for planning 
purposes. Please continue to check back as we modify this
forecast in the coming hours.

Watches up just South of LWX in AKQ

eta: Blacksburg went straight to Winter Storm Warnings

Tornado Watch Fredericksburg and points South and West til 3:00 AM

Finishes the day with 0.81”

Up to .64 here for the day

45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12z 3K NAM and 13Z HRRR

Already at .33 just NW of Fredericksburg, and it’s pouring

16 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'd say the EZF cell was big

about a mile down the road from my house, we have trees uprooted and snapped in various directions…..

Hearing that it was pretty nasty in my neighborhood in Stafford. Power must be out because I can’t get any of my home cameras to work, I’m in Pennsylvania….

Picked up 2.61” of rain with numerous branches down around my yard. All since 8:50 PM this evening. The creek that was a trickle is now raging in the backyard.

0.00” yesterday and 0.18” for the week and 1.76” for month so far….grass is crunchy. Feels like storms just dissipate or move just South through Spotsy rather than over my yard just NW of FXBG 

Nasty around Fredericksburg yesterday 

confirmed microburst….

https://fredericksburg.com/news/local/microburst-brings-damage-power-outages-to-city-residents/article_03bc0f9a-d953-5abb-bb53-8014f87fb5b2.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_&fbclid=IwAR0WSDEJJkPBwX77EA-adgdFzb5e5NR1gqtpFJhNCjkvZnF2_NgphxGR2i8

Storms seemed to go all around where I am in Stafford. Officially 0.00” in the rain gauge, my lawn might just turn to dust.

I have 88/77 at the house at the moment, that is wild and seems high to me. (DP wise at least)

SPC added slight area in the afternoon update for Southern MD and SEVA