patrick7032

An interesting little read about two storms that hit the Anchorage area dropping well over a foot of snow with winds of over 100 mph. http://blog.arh.nwsar.gov/

Yeah it was a fun launch....was only at 51KT at launch but still was interesting as the first sonde went north 10 ft and ascended 8 ft....then went south 20 ft....back north 5 ft....west 10 ft...then south 20 ft....all this will going up and down between 6 and 20 feet changing shapes (balloon) at least 6 times but then it ripped into 5 pieces....so the second launch did go straight west after the sonde hit the ground 3 times (surprised it still worked although it did go silent for a few seconds)....cleared the fence along the runway by 6 inches....cleared the runway by 10 ft....and Baldy Mountain which is 2.5 miles west...it passed 1/4 mile north of there at half the height of the mountain....but yeah....IT WAS A BLAST.... Sorry for the late reply....we had 2 or 3 good storms that week and days after was bust doing warning verification/LSR stuff then was off until mids this week. Here is the LSR from that storm. Not sure how the format will post here but will try it. NWAK58 PACD 151818 LSRCDB PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK 918 AM AKST THU DEC 15 2011 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1115 AM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W 12/14/2011 M93 MPH UNORGANIZED AK OTHER FEDERAL RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION 0300 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W 12/14/2011 M91 MPH UNORGANIZED AK AWOS 0345 PM NON-TSTM WND GST UNALASKA 53.87N 166.53W 12/14/2011 M97 MPH UNORGANIZED AK OTHER FEDERAL RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION 0604 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W FALSE PASS 54.88N 163.51W 12/14/2011 M73 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK ASOS 0657 PM NON-TSTM WND GST COLD BAY 55.18N 162.72W 12/14/2011 M76 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK OTHER FEDERAL RUNWAY SENSOR OBSERVATION 0428 AM NON-TSTM WND GST KING COVE 55.06N 162.31W 12/15/2011 M77 MPH ALEUTIANS EAST AK PUBLIC $$ DOLL DEC 11

Notice the 81 kts at 4000 feet....wow.

It's very beautiful....there are a few pictures posted in the earlier pages of this discussion....think within the first 10 pages....getting fish and crab fresh from the bay rocks....being a small town of only 60 people everyone knows everyone....we order our food from Costco in Seattle which is shipped up here on boat every 2 weeks....the people are great....seeing bears in their natural habitat is cool....you can often get within 60 feet when in your car....although I miss the severe convection launching the radiosondes in 85 mph winds is fun.

It's an active week....storm one dumped 8-14 inches in Anchorage as I landed from my trip home....few mins earlier many flights had missed approaches due to extreme turbulence....one of my friends said it was like being on a roller coaster....this storm brought 70 mph winds to the the Aleutian chain....storm 2 is occurring now....note the 64 kts forecast which is verifying....the storm for tomorrow night is another good storm....note the 75 kts forecast....and then there's a storm for the weekend on the maps....love the active weather....below are a couple marine zones....would expect another HIGH WIND WATCH to be issued later today for the Aleutian chain....which has been the case with the last 2 storms. SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 530 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011 .ANALYSIS... A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF ADAK ISLAND IS IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. TWO LOW LEVEL JETS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. PEAK WINDS OF 80 MPH OCCURRED ON UNALASKA EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DMINISH IN INTENSITY. MEANWHILE...A MORE POWERFUL LOW LEVEL JET RESIDES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. WINDS HAVE ALREADY APPROACHED 80 MPH ON ADAK...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE JET MOVES NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS. ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST REGION...CONDITIONS REMAINED QUIESCENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A WEAK REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS MORNING...BUT THESE ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING. .BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS...THE POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTH OF ADAK WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW ARE CURRENTLY SUPPORTING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES UNTIL THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM FORECAST... A STRONG JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE BERING. .AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING...187 195 MARINE...HURRICANE...172 175 STORM...150 155 165 170 171 176 179 185 GALE...120 130 132 140 160 180 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...180 185 FIRE WEATHER...NONE ELN DEC 11 Keep in mind....out here in the chain Warning criteria (wind) is 74 mph. PKZ199-140300- 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 948 MB LOW 100 NM NE OF ADAK WILL WEAKEN TO 951 MB 180 NM N OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON THEN THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN TO 959 MB 310 NM NW OF ADAK WED MORNING. A DEVELOPING 981 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC WILL STRENGTHEN TO 941 MB 160 NM SE OF DUTCH HARBOR WED AFTERNOON. $$ <a name="PKZ172">PKZ172-140300- EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...SW WIND 70 KT DIMINISHING TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 26 FT BERING SIDE...41 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 26 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF ATKA AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WED...W WIND 35 KT. E OF SEGUAM ISLAND...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY WEST OF ATKA IN THE MORNING. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ175-140300- WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA 400 AM AKST TUE DEC 13 2011 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...W WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. .THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. .FRI AND SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$

Nice IR SAT image of the current storm occurring that brought 75 mph winds to Cold Bay today, and a nearly 24 hour period of winds around 50 mph or better. Note the sparsity of obs showing precip. This is because the precip is blowing sideways which the automated sensors "have a fit" with.

Whoops....looks like I made an error....east of Nome in the Norton Sound area line should be east of one station showing 1 above....internet is too slow out here to reload it.

Another cool morning in the Alaska mainland and Canada....here are your 2am AKST temps....break out the hot coco........

The COLD WEATHER will get reinforced in interior Alaska....BBBRRRRRRRRRrrrrr....

You beat me to it Srain....was about to post about the cold...and about the long range forecast....will upload the image in a few.

Looks like we'll be in a "quiet" period for the next week....missed the last storm as I was back in Michigan for the weekend....below is the Local Storm Report from the storm...>Cold Bay was the winner for peak wind. http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/lsr.php

Here is the next big storm "on the maps....ironically the latest runs really are "bombing" this thing out....yesterday models had this low tracking west to east about 150NM south of Cold Bay....that had been forecast for days....now this low is of similar strength of the last storm (about 10mb weaker) but still shows surface sustained winds of 72KT.

Here's a nice IR SAT image of the storm.

Here is the Numerical Wind forecast...note the 73.5 kt SUSTAINED forecast near the low....but even down here just offshore from Cold Bay we're expecting 50kt.

The Storm in the Bering Sea is really getting developed. Here is some zone forecasts for the area, IR SAT, and model data. PKZ199-090300- 400 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 .SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS... A 962 MB LOW 100 NM WEST OF ATTU INTENSIFIES TO 945 MB TUE NIGHT 100 NM WEST OF GAMBELL AND THEN MOVES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE BERING THROUGH WED NIGHT. PKZ180-090300- SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT 400 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 28 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. .TONIGHT...S WIND 65 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND...S WIND 65 KT. SEAS 35 FT. RAIN. .WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. .THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. .FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. $$ PKZ185-090300- ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS 400 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 38 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 40 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .WED...SW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 36 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT. .THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. .SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. $$ PKZ179-090300- PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS 400 AM AKST TUE NOV 8 2011 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT BUILDING TO 32 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 35 FT. .WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. .WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. .THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. .SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. $$

What a night....felt number 4.... SEAK68 PACD 061050 EQRCDB EARTHQUAKE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK 150 AM AKST SUN NOV 6 2011 AN EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN COLD BAY THIS MORNING. THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED AT 1:44 AM AKST AND WAS MODERATE IN STRENGTH. THE TREMOR LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 15 SECONDS. INFORMATION RELEASED IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY. UPDATES, INCLUDING RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE, WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER IN GOLDEN, COLORADO. $$ DOLL NOV 11

SEAK68 PACD 060950 EQRCDB EARTHQUAKE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK 150 AM AKDT SUN NOV 6 2011 AN EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN COLD BAY THIS MORNING. THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED AT 1:46 AM AKDT AND WAS MILD IN STRENGTH. THE TREMOR LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 SECONDS. INFORMATION RELEASED IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY. UPDATES, INCLUDING RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE, WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER IN GOLDEN, COLORADO. $ DOLL NOV 11

SEAK68 PACD 060910 EQRCDB EARTHQUAKE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK 110 AM AKDT SUN NOV 6 2011 AN EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN COLD BAY THISMORNING. THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED AT 1:07 AM AKDT AND WAS MILD IN STRENGTH. THE TREMOR LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 10 SECONDS. INFORMATION RELEASED IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY. UPDATES, INCLUDING RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE, WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER IN GOLDEN, COLORADO. $$ DOLL

Here are the wind reports from the storm 2 days ago.... http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/lsr.php

SEAK68 PACD 060816 EQRCDB EARTHQUAKE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLD BAY AK 1216 AM AKDT SUN NOV 6 2011 AN EARTHQUAKE WAS OBSERVED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN COLD BAY THIS MORNING. THE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRED AT 12:08 AM AKDT AND WAS MODERATE IN STRENGTH. THE TREMOR LASTED FOR APPROXIMATELY 15 SECONDS. INFORMATION RELEASED IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY. UPDATES, INCLUDING RICHTER SCALE MAGNITUDE, WILL BE MADE AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE FROM THE NATIONAL EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION CENTER IN GOLDEN, COLORADO. $$ DOLL NOV 11

This was a decent storm which did verify the warning. I launched in 55 mph and we maxed out at 58 mph here. False Pass had a peak wind of 70 mph. King Cove measured 110 mph and had 20 crab pots weighing 800-1000 lbs each get blown off the stacks they were on. Next week looks interesting too. These storms have been maintaining strength as the cross the Gulf of Alaska. At one point there was High Wind Warnings from Cold Bay in the Alaska Peninsula all the way to southeast Alaska....just an arc of warnings with any zone that touched the water.

The first of a series of storms looks to affect the Alaska Peninsula, Gulf Of Alaska/northern Pacific Ocean, southeast Alaska, and perhaps western Canada is beginning to develop. WWAK72PAFC_AKZ181 ----------------- AKZ181-250200- /X.NEW.PAFC.HW.A.0025.111025T0600Z-111025T1800Z/ ALASKA PENINSULA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT 456 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATION...STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR KING COVE. * WIND...NORTHWEST WIND 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE. * TIMING...PEAK OF THE EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...WINDS MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AND MAY CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW. && $$ FPAK78PACD_AKZ181 ----------------- AKZ181-241900- ALASKA PENINSULA- INCLUDING...COLD BAY...SAND POINT 547 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 .NOW... ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN... RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SOME SLEET WILL MIX AT TIMES DURING ANY HEAVIER PERIOD OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AREAS OF THE PENINSULA. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO NEAR 2 MILES AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER PERIODS OF RAIN. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH LIKELY THROUGH LATE MORNING. $$ FPAK52PAFC_AKZ181 ----------------- AKZ181-250000- ALASKA PENINSULA- INCLUDING...COLD BAY...SAND POINT 500 AM AKDT MON OCT 24 2011 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN... .TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH. .TONIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. WEST WIND 20 TO 35 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE FOR CHANNELED TERRAIN. SAND POINT EASTWARD...SOUTHWEST WIND TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO WEST 30 TO 45 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WIND 40 TO 55 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 80 MPH IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. .TUESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE EVENING... THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WIND 25 TO 40 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. SOUTHWEST WIND 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE MORNING. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 40 TO 45. .THURSDAY NIGHT...RAIN LIKELY. LOWS 35 TO 40. .FRIDAY...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. .FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS 35 TO 40. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. && TEMPERATURE / PRECIPITATION COLD BAY 44 34 43 / 70 40 30 SAND POINT 45 37 43 / 70 40 30 $$ Derived from FPAK52PAFC - Updated 05:59 10/24/2011

Nope they started King Crab season at noon on Oct. 15th. The quota was cut in half this year. Opelio (Snow Crab) starts in January and the quota was doubled for that this year. Those are the "really big storms"....may even hear my voice on it next year....the HF marine broadcasts you here on that show are from either the King Salmon office or my office. They fish north of the Alaska Peninsula mainly in Bristol Bay and the eastern Bering Sea.

Looking into the "long range" it looks like the weather will stay active across the Alaska Peninsula and also in southeast Alaska and western Canada.