ct_yankee

Nada in New Haven. Zilch. Nothing at all, and radar is not encouraging... Not that I care, all that much - ok, I suppose I must care a little or I wouldn't be looking at this thread, but I have nothing invested emotionally, and no expectations.

Thems that has snow, enjoy!

And... We're back to just normal cold-looking heavy snow in HVN... Every extra hour we get as pure snow is gonna count for quite a bit with this one. Winning event so far, for sure. 

Incoming taint on radar... Sometimes the cold can fight it off, but... Current snow here in New Haven now has that heavy, almost-looks-like-rain appearance that usually indicates imminent changeover. So enjoy the thumpity while it lasts, at least on the coast.

Yeah, started as icy pingers here in New Haven but pretty quickly wetbulbed to all snow, which is now accumulating at a rather astonishing rate. Thinking those higher numbers from Upton could well verify if this keeps up for even a few more hours... The real deal, so far, and radar looking good.

Well, I was in fact aware of the potential today, albeit (I thought) really low probability... But I was totally unaware Upton radar was down and showing old imagery. Kept checking radar and seeing nothing... Finally caught on and looked at BOX, and was totally astounded. By that point the event was practically over with. Absolutely crazy day. 

1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Hurricane and land-based severe convective weather/tornado chasing are rather different animals.

Tornadoes develop on much shorter timescales and may not always develop, even from a seemingly intense supercell in favorable conditions. With hurricane chasing, you know you're going to have a storm. With tornadoes, they and their parent supercells haven't formed yet when you make your target. You don't have days of modeling their potential tracks, they can take sudden turns (See: El Reno) but more often than not move with the parent supercells.

The objective of tornado chasing usually isn't to put yourself in the core of strongest winds, unless you're in a vehicle like the TIV or Dominator (Again, see: El Reno).

With tornadoes, you don't have to contend with surge, and you usually don't run the risk of being trapped in a disaster area for potentially several days, with blocked roads, no power, and no open gas stations for 50 miles in any direction.

Agreed, absolutely, and that's pretty much why I don't chase hurricanes, not unless they come right to me. But that's just me, others feel differently. For some, hurricanes are their one true passion, and chasing tornadoes might just be something to do during the off-season. I've known chasers like that. And of course some (like Josh, I believe) don't bother with tornadoes at all.

3 hours ago, sojitodd said:

They should never have gone anywhere from which they had no plan of escape or place of refuge staked out in case they were trapped.  That was just a poor choice and poor choices were made all around it seems and it is just good that none of these chasers lost their lives. Will it take a hurricane chaser equivalent of Tim Samaras for people to wake up?

Except Tim's death and the various other stormchaser casualties haven't really changed the way people chase. When you chase a tornado, death is a possibility, every serious chaser knows this and always has known it. It's an inherently hazardous undertaking, not unlike, say, mountain climbing or sky diving. Someday a hurricane is probably going to kill a chaser, who can doubt it? But they take the risk knowingly, and if that's what they want to do, who are we to say it's wrong? We can debate ethics all day long, but it's never going to stop people from chasing, any more than Tim Samaras's death did. Any death is a tragedy, of course, but I know of no one who quit tornado chasing after El Reno.

Disclosure, FWIW: I do enjoy chasing storms myself. 

5 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I've been at this a long time now, and I still find myself fascinated by little things like what a razor's edge difference last night was compared to last Friday. 

We're talking maybe 50 J/kg difference in the low levels. That was all we needed to stretch the low level shear.

Yes, the razor's edge difference. Why does one day fizzle, and another go crazy? That is the key question. It often seems to me that shear doesn't behave as a linear continuum, but rather as a threshold, beyond which you get supercells and rotation, with nothing much happening until that threshold is reached. I've seen countless days out on the Plains where storms will go up and strengthen for hours without showing any signs of rotation, and then bam, suddenly every storm along the dryline will begin to spin and form a strong low-level meso, as if a switch was flipped... But it's almost as if we're not quite measuring the right things, because helicity values and the other parameters we look at don't seem to me to be able to predict exactly when and where that changeover to a supercellular regime occurs. Perhaps it's just that the numbers we look at via mesoanalysis and modeling aren't really reflecting the true state of the atmosphere, I don't know... But we're missing something, or we wouldn't keep getting surprised by these events. Not that Tuesday was a surprise, the SPC and others pretty much nailed it, but you know what I mean... Why was this event nailed, when so many others that looked pretty similar did not perform as expected?

So... That supercell yesterday produced something like 4 tornadoes from just over the NY state line on out to Long Island, including one that tracked from New Canaan to Norwalk... And nobody comments?

Yeah, I get it that some people just want to move on to winter, but damn... I expected a little more excitement.

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Sure was. Plus nROT above 1.5...yikes

Yep, very impressive cell. Hook wrapped all the way round, forming a doughnut-hole BWER for at least one scan. Still a strong storm, which might cycle again, but it's out in the Sound now, and it's getting dark...

29 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Does slight risk mean the same thing it always did?  This seems like a real dud compared to others.

This was always an iffy setup, that could have gone either way. The potential was there, but... The lack of a watch reflects the SPC's understanding that the day would probably underperform. I would expect a downgrade of the Slight with the next outlook issued.

Based on radar trends, I'm doubtful we'll see a watch - actually, make that I'm almost certain we won't. I'm not seeing anything much that impresses, and the trend this late in the day can only go downward with loss of insolation... This time of year, if it hasn't happened by 6pm, it's not happening.

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Look at those cells over Long Island. 

Yeah, those are a bit more interesting than the rest, semi-discrete and definitely supercellular looking... Heading this way, too.

Kinda surprised SPC actually put out an MD for our area, usually they ignore these low but definitely not zero risk situations. LOL 5% watch probability:

Areas affected...Portions of NJ into Long Island and southern
   Connecticut

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 252138Z - 252345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasionally weakly rotating storms are expected over the
   next few hours. Overall severe threat is very low.

   DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete storms, currently anchored along a warm
   front, have occasionally showed transient, weak low to mid-level
   rotation across portions of central/eastern New Jersey into the NYC
   area and far southern Connecticut. Though lapse rates are quite poor
   throughout the troposphere (i.e 5-5.5 C/km), sfc-850 mb moisture is
   quite deep, contributing to MLCAPE of up to 1000 J/kg along/south of
   the front. While effective bulk shear values are rather modest given
   the marginally unstable atmosphere (30-40 knots across the
   discussion area), favorable low-level directional shear remains in
   place, with effective SRH values exceeding 250 m2/s2 over Long
   Island, with nearly 350 m2/s2 0-3km SRH noted by recent KOKX WSR-88D
   VWP data. Low-level flow is slightly more veered closer to PHL, with
   latest KDIX VWP data suggesting both 0-3km and 0-1km SRH exceeding
   150 m2/s2. 

   The favorable low-level shear, combined with the moist/marginally
   buoyant airmass, may promote semi-discrete storms in the area to
   continue weakly rotating on an occasional basis, particularly across
   portions of Long Island and southern Connnecticut, where storms may
   more favorably traverse the warm front and ingest available
   low-level streamwise vorticity. Still, given the marginally buoyant
   airmass and expected lackluster potential for stronger rotation, the
   severe threat appears quite low.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/25/2018

28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Today should about do it for severe season. See ya next May. 

SPC:
 

   On Day 4 (Friday 9-21) however, an initial upper trough is forecast
   to be advancing quickly eastward across the Great Lakes and later
   the Northeast U.S., and adjacent eastern Canada.  This trough will
   be accompanied by a seasonably strong cold front, progged to shift
   across the Northeast and Ohio Valley and shift off the New England
   coast by the beginning of Day 5.  While instability along the length
   of the front -- particularly across New England -- will likely
   remain limited, strong westerly/west-southwesterly flow through a
   deep tropospheric layer may support potential for gusty/damaging
   winds, with a frontal line of convection.  Thus, a severe risk area
   is being included Day 4, from parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley
   northeastward into New England.

2 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Pretty wild here in the New Haven area. 

No kidding! I think there were 4 or 5 CGs that must of hit within a block of me (right downtown) in the space of a couple minutes... Including one that got the building across the street while I watched.

17 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Best lightning producer of the summer right now. Boom!

Have to agree, constant lightning...

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Holy waterspout yesterday in Bourne near the west end of the canal. Borderline stove pipe. That has to be one of the most impressive spouts you'll see around here. 

 

 

Hmmm, nice. Score one for James?

And we have an appropriately meh MD out. hard to get exited about "a few marginal supercell structures":

Mesoscale Discussion 1307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Fri Aug 17 2018

   Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern NY/PA...northern
   NJ...southern VT...and western MA/CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 171842Z - 172115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated threat for strong to locally damaging winds
   should continue to increase this afternoon as thunderstorms develop
   and move eastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed within
   the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is well underway across parts of
   eastern NY/PA behind morning showers and thunderstorms associated
   with a low-amplitude lead shortwave trough over New England as of
   1830Z. Continued diurnal heating across this region given cloud
   breaks noted on visible satellite imagery will allow surface
   temperatures to generally reach into the mid to upper 80s, and
   plentiful low-level moisture will contribute to MLCAPE around
   1000-2000 J/kg along and south of a warm front. However, poor
   mid-level lapse rates noted on 12Z soundings from ALB, BUF, and PIT
   will likely temper even greater instability this afternoon. The 18Z
   sounding from ALB modified for current conditions shows some
   steepening of low-level lapse rates, and this process should
   continue with eastward extent across western MA/CT and southern VT
   as the surface warm front lifts northward.

   Recent VWPs from BGM, CCX, and ENX show low-level southerly winds
   veering quickly to southwesterly in the 0-6 km AGL layer, although
   the magnitude of these winds remain generally limited (at or below
   30-35 kt). Even so, around 25-35 of resultant effective bulk shear
   should prove adequate for scattered thunderstorms organizing into
   multicell clusters. This convection will mainly pose an isolated
   strong to damaging wind threat this afternoon and early evening
   given the steepening low-level lapse rates and modestly
   strengthening low to mid-level flow. A few marginal supercell
   structures with some hail threat may also occur with south/westward
   extent where instability is stronger. A brief tornado cannot be
   completely ruled out along the warm front given the locally backed
   near-surface winds locally enhancing 0-1 km SRH. Given the expected
   increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the next couple
   of hours, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to address this
   threat.

   ..Gleason/Dial.. 08/17/2018

CAMs were always (well, since last night) showing basically two waves of storms, one around 19z which has already materialized, and then another after 0z (for some models well after) so it's playing out the way it was modeled, so far... That said, the good shear seems to be hanging back west well behind this first line of storms, and who knows how much instability will be left later on, so...

As always, we wait, and we'll see. It is what it is. I've learned never to get exited about these kind of setups.

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

what's the forcing mechanism? 

This. The parameters were pretty good yesterday also, but... No storms.

32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The feature Tip (presumably) and I were looking at is clearly a reflection, it goes right into the road in this second pic. Still, it's a nice pic of a nice storm, just no tornado.

48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

tough call...

if it's not fake - and no offense... the question has to be asked in this era of complete transparently honest, wild-wild west internet ... - it's not entirely clear that's drilled into the updraft of that impressive storm.

It could be a gustnado - which is a real phenomenon, no joke.  

It's not a gustnado. I've seen plenty and they don't look like that, they don't connect with the cloud base, most are just funnel-less dust whirls. That said, the photo looks very sketchy if it's purporting to show a tornado. I suppose it could be, but the ruler-straight "funnel" looks more like a reflection of some kind to me. Would need more info to make a real judgement, such as where and exactly when the pic was taken.

FWIW, there were indeed a couple of waterspouts in Jersey yesterday, pics are available online, for instance: https://patch.com/new-jersey/barnegat-manahawkin/incredible-video-pictures-waterspout-lbi

Man I am so pissed at myself... When the base of that cell first appeared over the buildings of New Haven it had fantastic structure, looked like a meso from the plains, classic... But I have a brand new phone with a new (and much nicer) camera - that apparently I have no idea how to use! I fumbled around for about 15 minutes trying to get the damned thing to use the outward camera rather than the one for selfies... By the time I figured it out the structure I wanted to photograph was gone, the meso fell completely apart, not even a decent shelf to show for my troubles...

Really impressive, but then totally garden variety by the time I got the shot... Damn it. Cell is not even remotely severe now. Friggin' technology, smartphones, who needs 'em... Bah! My crappy old camera would have gotten the pic easily. Ah well...

That storm in southwest CT is exploding. I can see the top of it from here. Don't think I've ever seen so much lightning on lightningmaps, it's continuous - more even than those storms yesterday.