ct_yankee

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I dunno but was there a watch issued?

Apparently not. Two MDs were issued with watch probabilities at 20% and 40% respectively, but even after the event was well underway they apparently didn't pull the trigger on a watch. Pretty unbelievable in retrospect, looking at the storm reports. 

Holy F**K that was some insane gusts from this, whole building was shaking...

Edit: was not expecting that at all, not from that weak looking part of the line, miles from where it looked to be severe. Impressive event.

I do not agree that the EH high school video shows the tornado, looks like straight line stuff to me. At no time does the wind direction change. Extremely powerful, nonetheless. The high end downbursts were clearly just as damaging if not more so than the tornado.

So in the end this turned out to have been modeled rather well, at least by the CAMs. Warm front placement pretty much as advertised, supercells along front as advertised, and all the damage seems to have occurred along that line (at least in CT), mostly from that one storm.  I feel for those who lost power and property tho, never want to see that...

Just spoke to a friend in Stony Creek area of branford. He couldn't get to his home on rt146, had to park way up by the highway and walk... Naturally no power when he finally got there. Sounds like a real mess, and yeah they only just recovered from the TC, probably looking at another week without power...

Crazy storm, when it went over New Haven it was moving so fast I literally didn't have time to hold the phone up for a shot of the meso. Between when the tor warning went out and when it hit was literally a few minutes. I got one good look at the meso/wall cloud and then wham, crazy sideways rain and visibility = 0. Would not be surprised if there was a tor in there near North Haven, it really ramped up then. Was all over in like 10 minutes, with sunshine on the other side. Crazy. Really wish I had got a pic tho, was very cool looking, if only for a few secs...

Just now, tim123 said:

Think a moderate rusk goes up for upstate ny to sw new england

The areal coverage may be too small for a mod risk. Finally had a chance to look at the models after spending way too much time in the tropical forums. As has been mentioned this looks to be very tightly focused on the warm front in the afternoon, which most of the CAMs are placing approx. on a line running NW/SE from just S of Albany to near New London, give or take 30 miles depending on the model. There will likely be a supercell somewhere in this area, beyond that its not so clear cut. A small mod risk is remotely possible if the models come further into agreement on placement of the front I suppose. I agree the numbers are very nice looking right now, but that's really only over a relatively small area.

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

They've actually closed the auto road during the pandemic (which has been great for me as a runner). You can still walk to the top, if you're so inclined. The view is superb.

About East Rock, they used to close the park whenever severe weather was incoming, I got kicked off the top by park rangers a couple times. The fact that it's closed may actually be an advantage in that regard. But it's a helluva walk from the base parking lot, unless you're in much better shape than me (likely, now that I think about it). Its the best vantage point in the area for sure, only disadvantage is that if at the last moment you decide to go for a target elsewhere you're stuck in the middle of urban traffic, usually right at rush hour.

The tornado threat tomorrow in SNE is legit. Usually with TCs we're starved for instability but most of these systems come through in the fall, I can't really remember the last time we had one right at the peak of high summer when the atmosphere is already juiced. Could definitely get interesting.

Man, I thought the day was ruined after that first wave of crapvection but the atmosphere recovered enough for the one small storm to get it done - at least twice, and maybe more than that. Now imagine what it would have been like with a little more forcing and/or an EML. Excellent pics and video, very cool stuff.

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Finally. Hope you enjoy.

 

Nice! Some pretty decent structure there...

That stuff that blew up to my southwest is headed this way... Haven't actually managed to get in a severe storm all summer, maybe this will do it... Nah, it's coastal CT.

Sweet little supercell in MA, at least for a few scans. The MA cells are interacting with warm front/boundary, and also each other... Many splits but some definite spin in places. Too bad it looks like it will all congeal. Still, I don't think you could call this a bust.

Slight risk extended into parts of CT... I think they did it just for you, Wiz.

3 hours ago, snowlover2 said:

Just saw this on FB from Eric Elwell(well respected met in Ohio). He says it was from west WI today and appears to be an upside down funnel.

It's making my brain hurt trying to figure out which way that should be rotating.

Did they extend the watch and then trim it back again? I could have sworn I saw it covering almost all of CT a few minutes ago but now it only covers the northwestern corner.

This is very underwhelming. I don't get the extended watch either.

Good old New England, never disappoints, which is to say it almost always does. I always have zero expectation for these events, and once in a great while I'm pleasantly surprised. Not today, tho. So it goes.

Edit: and we might have a spin up in VT as I post this. Yep, that figures.

Nam sounding for central MA friday 21z:

9 minutes ago, mgerb said:

For everyone ragging on LCH, I noticed some problems with warnings not displaying in RadarScope this evening. For instance, the post above questions LCH's lack of warning around 9:25 or 9:30 PM, but there was a warning issued back at 9:04 PM. I thing something screwy was happening with the warning polygons (at least in RadarScope). 

I also wondered if there wasn't something screwy with radarscope so I looked elsewhere, specifically at SPC mesoanalysis, but there was no warning box there either. If there was a glitch I think it goes further than just radarscope.

53 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Latest OKX maps. I can agree with the inland numbers around 5-6". But HVN gets more than 2 thats for sure. They are already close that.

 

 

Yeah, I was just driving home from Stony Creek about an hour ago and it seemed like we had at least a couple of inches already... The intensity of the snow has tapered since then, but it's still snowing and I agree the total's gonna be well over 2 inches... But does it really matter?  Whether it's 2, or 4, or even 6, its all gonna get washed away by the rain, at least it will here in New Haven.

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Download sci go app its free for the first 2 episodes

Near as I can tell by googling, it still requires a sign-in, it's marketed as "free with your TV provider". I don't see anything about free episodes without a sign-in, do you have a link that says different?

Note: I do not want to sign up for any free trials that require giving up a credit card number in advance. Been burned before doing that.

2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

For those of you that are interested, you can watch the first episode of Hurricane Man.  I thought the episode which featured Hurricane Michael was well done. I am not sure if this link will work if you don't use facebook.   https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fbit.ly%2F317ye9a

Won't work for those of us who have either cut the cord or, like me, never had any cable or any other "TV provider".  Would love to see Josh's show, but I get turned down with a message saying "your xfinity service does not include this program".  I only use them for internet and mobile, which apparently isn't enough.

4 hours ago, f2tornado said:

This will not be a popular opinion here. The BMX tweet would have been the end of it however ABC Nightly News turned the tweet into a hit piece on the President in an effort to stick him with a gaff. The President then lashed out at the reporter and the pile on began. I have rarely seen this kind of media passion to turn a nontroversy into a controversy.

Consider the following published from BMX seven years ago

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 
626 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE NEVER BORING OR EASY TO FORECAST AS ISAAC
CONTINUES TO CHALLENGE.

Kudos to the BMX forecaster who had the utmost confidence to publish an effective 0% forecast "no impacts... felt across Alabama"  via Twitter in spite of the same office previously noting forecast difficulty with tropical systems. This conflicted, albeit slightly, with the NHC published probability distribution of TS winds covering a portion of AL. Further, it was somewhat inconsistent with the morning 9/1 Tallahassee AFD which covers southeast AL and stated, "The latest forecast for Hurricane Dorian from the National Hurricane Center continues to keep it east of the local area. While we still shouldn't let our guard completely down, the chance of impactful weather from Dorian occurring in our forecast area remains low".

BMX should be no stranger to forecast uncertainty. Take a look at the forecast cone for Hurricane Isaac (2012) that at one time was nearly centered over BMX. In fact, the entire state of Alabama was enveloped within the cone before none of the state was in the cone. It should be noted, even though the entire state of Alabama was outside the forecast cone toward landfall, the Mobile area did experience some TS force gusts and impact from surge. The cone only represents the storm center forecast track. This is why NHC storm wind probabilities are smeared well outside the cone with time and why forecasters should be cautious speaking in absolute terms, particularly when the average error for a tropical system is about 200 miles on day 5. 

Oh FFS, President Sharpie didn't just say that there was a chance of Alabama getting hit, he specifically said they were going to be hit "harder than expected", something no weather map or model was indicating at the time, in fact the trend was exactly the opposite. After a presidential statement like that, BMX was absolutely correct in setting the record straight. And you know it.

So, does anybody still believe that the NWS/NOAA would never ever let politics dictate a weather statement, as was being professed on this board a few days ago?

To be clear, I didn't think so then... But now? It's just f'n pathetic.

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Also, studies seem to show that people who swear, are more intelligent.

https://www.sciencealert.com/swearing-is-a-sign-of-more-intelligence-not-less-say-scientists 

Fookin' A!!!