ct_yankee

2 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said:

I would think terrain influence helped boost the line up a bit. No? Or maybe  outflow

Or just higher CAPE and better lapse rates... But maybe terrain also.

Noticeably strengthening on last few frames...

Seems like western MA may be under the gun, don't know about CT.

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

That line in NY is nice.. 

None of the high resolution models seem to want to keep it going much further, virtually all show it dissipating or splitting up into pieces before it reaches Albany.

Looks quite healthy, though, so maybe the models just don't have a handle on this...

On 7/25/2019 at 12:28 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Yeah, the parent supercell/mesocyclone struck the entire length of the south coast of Cape Cod from the Elizabeth Islands, southwest of Falmouth, MA where the supercell's mesocyclone was producing water spouts or potential water spouts.  The supercell absorbed the mesolow and created a large circulation that enveloped most of the Cape Cod area at one time.  Especially south of Route 6, the Mid-Cape Highway.  South of the Highway, the supercell and parent circulation spawned the first radar indicated tornado as the Correlation Coefficient radar picked up a debris signature over South Yarmouth, just southwest of the Bass River and the town line of Dennis and Yarmouth.  Then the confirmed reports from the NWS damage survey team suggests the tornado roped out and lifted and then redeveloped over South Harwich and moved about a 50 yards to the northwest of my backyard where my street got lashed by two wind downbursts, according to what I observed on the velocity radar it showed the southeast flank of the circulation strike the entire area where the first initial downburst was quite weak, about 40mph winds, while the circulation past to the immediate north of my house, the second burst struck the area, and what Reed Timmer suggests as the Rear Flank Downdraft, which he said is only present when a tornado is on the ground.  I believe he said that.  I could be corrected, Paul?  That burst of winds was definitely over 100mph winds.  Our large double trunk pine tree was completely uprooted.  Signs of the damage suggest it was caused by a legit circulation and not straight-line winds.  Once the winds struck and debris started flying everywhere, my two brothers, my sister and mom and I all went straight into our basement.  A lot of people are saying the extent of the damage and the concentration in my town of Harwich, MA was the worst everyone has ever seen.  Worst than Bob.  The NWS says that the path width of the tornado was as big as 250 yards, which is quite wide.  It also lasted two-plus miles.  We lost power at around 12;30 p.m once the town deemed it necessary for public safety that they cut the power to most of the town, over 93%.  We gained our power back between 1 pm and 3 pm.  I was taking a nap when it was restored.  

I'm not Wiz but that is incorrect, many times you have an RFD with no tornado, and vice versa. There was a theory that correlated tornadogenesis with RFDs, and certain kinds of RFDs in particular, but the latest in detailed computer simulations suggests the RFD is more a consequence of the tornado then a cause (look at Dr. Leigh Orf's work).

Edit: Phrased that badly, did not mean to imply tornado causes RFD, as noted the two phenomena occur independently sometimes

SPC page currently has two separate reports from the Cape for the day, indicating two tornadoes. Remarks say one has been confirmed by survey, while the other was radar-indicated but a survey is ongoing. So was this one tornado or two? Obviously there was a lot of straight-line wind damage as well, but I'm curious about the official number for the tor(s).

Pretty interesting event, considering mesoanalysis was showing almost no SBCAPE when the tornado touched down.

Continuous thunder just south of me...

There is something to be said for pretty clouds... Especially when its all you got.

48 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ughhh debating on whether to stay in Branford or just go back to WeHa. Part of me is thinking staying here. I'm also wondering if mesoanalysis is accurately reflecting things down this way. It has to be more unstable than it shows 

Head north. You're much more likely to get spinners near the front, which as everyone has noticed is now well north up near MA border. Also, still a lot of CIN near the coast. I think you'll do better up by HFD.

18 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Funnel cloud on a storm with no 0-3km CAPE, no surface based parcels and that's outflow dominant? I understand covering your bases and being safe but I'd probably call BS on a funnel report, even from a trained spotter, in the environment that storm is in unless I had a picture.

From a chaser stream:

Seems like the Hudson acts like a brick wall for severe, it rarely makes it past...

Not bad, constant lightning in the sky...

Does not feel like a severe day. At all.

Reed Timmer intercepted one of the Nebraska tornadoes on foot earlier. That's right, he walked into a tornado - or rather, the tornado came down on top of him and he didn't run away. Video is on his twitter feed. The mans crazy, but you have to give him props. 

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like DDC will be missed just to the SE by that TW'd storm 

That cell has recently produced at least 2 small tornadoes, per streams from Brett Adair and Sequoyah Quinton.

Rotation never looked that good on radar, but the tors were undeniable.

Cell got its own MD:

 
Mesoscale Discussion 0658
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0812 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

   Areas affected...Portions of central Nebraska

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 172...

   Valid 180112Z - 180315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 172 continues.

   SUMMARY...A long-lived supercell thunderstorm continues to move into
   an environment favorable for tornadoes. The strength of the
   low-level wind fields suggests that some tornadoes may be
   significant. Large hail will also be possible.

   DISCUSSION...An intense supercell with a history of producing
   tornadoes has been ongoing for the last few hours and has shown
   increasing signs of rotation per KUEX radar. Low-veering in the KUEX
   VAD profile shows very large 0-1 km SRH approaching 400 m2/s2. Given
   the continued influx of higher theta-e air and increased low-level
   winds accompanying the low-level jet, this activity is expected to
   persist into at least mid-evening. Tornadoes, some significant, and
   large hail will all be possible with this activity.

   ..Wendt.. 05/18/2019

Nice. That was the original cell that went up just north of Amarillo, that had a lot of chasers on it at first but most had given it up as a losing proposition well before the tor... Just goes to show, you never can tell, especially in the panhandle. To be fair, the couplet on it was never all that impressive on radar.

And as darkness closes in, there has been a single confirmed tornado... In Cheyenne, WY.

Nobody predicted that would happen.

New watch for southwest KS, finally. They waited until initiation was well underway. I guess that's one way of doing it, with at least some certainty of storms...

Tornado watch up for eastern KS south of the front, initiation seems in doubt to the southwest, at least for the time being...

Best tornado of the day:

It's in Romania!

Edit: Video link I used was apparently taken down, but look for Rumanian tornado April 30 and you can probably find it

That smaller cell up in Lenapah just produced a small tornado, watched it on live strem

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Depends what we mean by 'shouldn't'

Yeah, should have qualified that... Lets just say that lapse rates/poor instability made a severe supercell unlikely there. 

Interesting situation. If you believe mesoanalysis that storm had nothing going for it... Except some moderately strong low level shear helped by locally backed winds. Seeming very unlikely to produce in that environment - but then there shouldn't have been a cell that strong there in the 1st place.

Still all snow in HVN, and still insanely heavy, the sleet looks to be confined to southeast portion of the state...

This band is easily the fastest accumulating snow I've seen since Nemo. There's a guy shoveling the sidewalk across the street from me and you could literally watch the pavement turn white again behind him... Crazy stuff.  Haven't seen any true sleet here in HVN, not yet, although the heavy wet snow does have a kind of "sleety" look to it at times... If we can manage to hold off the taint thru the morning there'll be some insane totals in this region come dawn.