fyrfyter
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Posts posted by fyrfyter
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Just now, RyanDe680 said:
0.00 final call
Knowing the OV that’s probably reasonable at this point.
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We were supposed to get actual rain, around an inch. We got 0.03”. Some much for the dryness going away. I fully expect the leaves to turn brown and fall. No colors this year.
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Although I usually don't have much to complain about during fall, I figured we should have a place to banter.
The IND discussion this afternoon had some sound scientific advice:SO, IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE OUTSIDE THIS EVENING...LISTEN TO YOUR MOM AND WEAR YOUR COAT.
Now what would be the fun in that? How am I going to catch a cold wearing a coat?-
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Denver went from 82F late yesterday afternoon to 21F and snowing at 7am. Stuff of yore right there my friends.
I have a friend outside of Denver who literally closed his pool a few days ago because of the forecast. Earlier this week he was floating in it.-
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Look at a photo of the lone standing house left in Gilchrist, TX after Ike and get back to us.
One lone house on stilts that still needed a years worth of repair after Ike... seems to prove my point. -
Wildly ignorant statement.
Right because new growth pine, glulams, lvls, and OSB are clearly “quality” building materials. -
30 minutes ago, psv88 said:
New Houses aren’t built out of wood in Florida or the Bahamas. Strict building codes. Maybe where you live in Southern Ohio houses are made out of glue, but down there new construction is rock solid.
New construction in Florida is the same crap built elsewhere with hurricane straps. What a joke. The Florida code is an ICC Code, just like the Ohio code and many others. Go read the residential part. It's the same spec for cheap junky wood.
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15 minutes ago, psv88 said:
Videos from the well off people appear to be from Freeport area, where wind gusts likely 120-130 range, which would destroy a wooden house, but won’t do too much damage to a newly built concrete house. These people likely know their house can withstand cat 3 winds and stayed, probably to ward off looting.
My fathers house near Naples was hit with 140 winds in Irma and sustained minor roof damage and lost his linai. He could have stayed and been fine, but no power or water for weeks... New construction is solid.
New construction is garbage. How cheap can we build a house? It's cheaper for it to be destroyed and rebuild it than to build something that will last. Look around, all the new buildings are built with glue and lumber scraps. Nothing is designed to last anymore.
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Not going to bother to count but for Dorian, I wonder how many individual model runs posted are on the left side of the NHC cone of uncertainty vs. the right side...
I thought about this as well. Just looking over the last few days, it seemed like 25-33% showed landfalls. That's a big problem considering any one of those ensemble runs could be correct.
I think this is a lot of the reason why so many of the states are clearing out there coasts. There is way too much uncertainty on this one. The forecast seems to change with each model run. If it were minor changes, I think they would have been more conservative on evacuations.
I heard at some point, one model spread was 70 miles in width.
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Hundreds of weather wienie wishcasters are waking up right now with disappointment that their dream of 200 mph Dorian heading wsw at 10 mph to bring the apocalypse to florida is not going to happen as this thing is, gasp, following solid guidance in terms of slowing down to a crawl as he prepares to turn north and gradually weaken.
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I want to know which part of the weather models provided “ solid guidance” over the past week?
Did it turn North and instantly weaken?-
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The main thread is becoming an argument on Darwin's law and Darwinism. And this is the banter thread... lol
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8 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:
Is it still wobbling WSW?
Latest RS loop from KAMX says yes. Looks like it's moving a bit slower, but still drifting WSW.
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That’s a perfect forecast... unless it turns towards Cuba... -
KAMX radar on the loop looks like the Eye will pass towards the South of Freeport. I'm taking that as a bad sign.
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Not true. There have been a ton of cat 4 storms that hit nothing that aren’t retired.
Apparently since the 50s, this is decided at the end of the year after hurricane season is over as to reusing a name.
Based upon things this today, I’d say this one will be retired. -
The amount of wishcasting going on hoping for a monster cat 5 hurricane to make landfall in a densely populated area is frankly disturbing.
And this surprises you how? People don’t want boring and mundane. What the news media does on top of this doesn’t help. -
if dorian did no damage would its' name be retired on it's stats alone?
Yes. They will determine the appropriateness of reusing names after everything is over.
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Natural cycles dude. We are coming down off the ice age still, bro. Mars is hella warm too
Looking at the solar cycles and the solar minimum for possibly 30 years, I’d say we are headed towards a cooler period rather than a warmer one.
November 30-December 2 *Potential* Winter Storm
in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Posted
We’ll just hope we actually get a winter this year and next, compared to last year at this time.