WVclimo saved this from the thread I had written about the event. It was fun rereading it.
This will be a truly historic storm and has very good shot at breaking the dca snowstorm total for reagan national airport. Why am I so giddy. Well, I talked to another old time met and he was saying he thought the warm advection between HAT and DCA was the same as during the 1979 event which is the current reagan national record. Also, the 06Z nam and 06 gfs both have more than 2.75 inches over dc. Normally I might discount them, I suspect the nam's 3 inches is too high but do think that over 2.5" inches is likely. the storm with that type of moisture was the feb 2003 event except this one will be all snow over dc, that one mixed. Why am I so sure this will be snow, it's teh confluence, this one's confluence is much stronger than that one. That storm produced a large area of 20 plus inches of snow across the dc area into parts of delmarva, this one should too! That storm produced pockets of ovr 30 inches, this one probably will too. The one difference is this one will probably have the 20 inch plus amounts across PG county and at least the northern half of calvert.
This is going to be a truly disruptive storm. I've filled one of my bathtubs with water and am putting lots of perishables in a cooler that I'm going to put in the snow so I don't have to open the freezing or fridge if we lose power. I think that's a possibility.
Phl still looks to get heavy snow, JamieO is still in the tight gradient. Nothing has changed from last night except the models are even wetter.