GATECH

10 minutes ago, George BM said:

Sky has a bit of a hazy look with an orange tinge to the sunlight.

Yea.  Here too,  Weird.  Smoke from somewhere?

Winding down…obligatory deck pick…this is why daytime snow is superior!  Family thinks I am nuts, but this is how I spend a snow day!  (Luckily home alone today!)

78.3 for my high today

33.1 for the low (current temp)

nearing 1” of snow here south of old town Alexandria (heaviest snow rate of the winter currently) along the tropical shores of the Potomac….bonkers!

Tomorrow’s NWS forecast….i guess I missed the heavy drizzle watch?  Maybe we just go to a straight warning, maybe the criteria for a warning is greater than 20% chance of precipitation.  Whatever I can’t wait to measure my heavy drizzle in millimeters!  Be careful out there everyone!  

Areas of drizzle before noon, then isolated showers after 4pm. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Areas of dense fog before noon. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 65. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Ivt parked over my house, about 2” total.  Heaviest snow of the day.  Probably about 1” per hour, if it does this for 6 more hours then boom!  But it’s drifting slowly east it looks like.  32.5 so melting has slowed, roads are caved.

Starting to rip fatties. 50/50 rain snow at elevation 35’. Temp down to 35.6

36.9….started the white rain part of the program.   Progress…

Just now, ThePhotoGuy said:

The city of Annapolis must have seen the GFS from a few days ago and just put it out in their emergency alert. 

LOL, probably meant 4-8

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question should my wetbulb temp be35.5? Just seems a bit high 

Air is already saturated, so not much evaporative cooling available…our cold air will be CAA and driven down from up top in high rates

14 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question should my wetbulb temp be35.5? Just seems a bit high 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Heck part of me kinda hopes it's right. I guess I'm a misery loves company kind of guy. 2" here and 9" in NYC might be better than 5" here and 25" in NYC. Sorry 

We will take our participation trophy and like it!  37.9, drizzle…

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, I had to go to Houston for my bf friend's birthday.  I'm going to play the part, but I'm dying inside.

If we get a HECS while you are in Houston, I foresee many future trips there for you…I’ll set up the ‘go fund me’ now!

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI

Add 24 inches and it will match the gfs!

I feel like we have all gathered to watch a train wreck…live.  

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

why am i getting march 2001 vibes

Keep March 2001 out of your mouth....or I am sending Will Smith!   I was getting Feb 9-10 2010 vibes....

1 minute ago, stormy said:

One thought to all this hulabaloo.

The pattern is changing after 2 months of colder than normal.

Pattern change creates model kaos.

Before the 18 z runs, I will be BOLD.

The 2 month colder than normal pattern is ending.................     March will probably be variable temperature wise and a hodge podge of rain/snow events.................................... 

So March is going to March....Like it does every year....since the dawn of time....

14 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I mean; its the truth. The arrogance here is pathetic for a junk science hobby. If my post was banter, I'd get it. But it was great analysis. 6z GFS showed rainers, good bet its right based on climo. Its just the truth. But I get attacked by a lot of arrogant people who think they are super duper smart. 

You lost all credibility when you said “gfs…and I bet it’s right.”

Excellent idea!   If I only had water to make coffee or hot chocolate!  But they will get the thanks for sure!

23 minutes ago, H2O said:

52 breaks in the last week alone.  Your area is def an older one and prone to breaks.  Be happy tho.  Baileys, Falls Church and Fairfax are way worse.  

I thought you were retired!  

Commence water main breakage and pothole season!  Water main just broke on our street, bye bye water for a bit!

And many baby potholes were born today,  fun times ahead!

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

DCA reported 1.99" liquid and 6.9" snow. If I'm generous and say .09" of that was freezing drizzle (probably an overestimate) then their snow report equals real snow plus sleet at some possible-to-calculate ratio after an assumption is made on the snowfall to liquid conversion. I will assume 10:1 in my calculation that follows.

So let's say 5" real snow, then we have

5.0 + 1.40*(ratio/10) = 6.9

That reduces to 1.40*(ratio/10) = 1.9

and makes ratio/10 = .21, in other words a 2.1 :  1.0  ratio. Sleet ratios are often quoted at 3:1. 

For 3:1 to be correct, then snow at 10:1 is 2.7" .. that is clearly a low estimate based on regional reports.

So either this was very watery sleet or very underestimated sleet. I would guess what really happened is that 3" of sleet pounded 6" of snow down to 4 inches and sat on top giving 7 inches.  

This!  The compaction was quick.  One hour into the heavy sleet I had lost about .5 inches of snow depth.  Depending on when/if they cleared their board can easily explain the lower than expected report.  Also if you really examined the sleet, I did of course because I (aren’t we all) am a weather nerd, it was watery and was very diverse in size, which was surprising to me.  Smallish sleet pellets seemed to dominate, at least in my yard.  I am about 13 miles due south of DCA, just about on the river so similar, except we have trees instead of concrete.  My final tally was 8.5”, but I cleared my measuring area soon after the sleet started and then every 6 hours ish

14 minutes ago, H2O said:

Part of me wants to go shovel the sleet that fell before it went to zr but not sure I want to cause it might make it stupid slippery 

Yeah no. It’s a death trap out there.  Had to rescue our dog in the backyard because he had no idea how to walk on a sheet of ice.

28.6….glaze getting serious.  At least .1”.  Hard to measure…have a metal railing where I usually measure…down several steps….don’t want to break my neck.

7 minutes ago, H2O said:

I haven’t had any rain yet. It’s all pellets. But when it pours IT POURS. 

I’ve had 3” sleet. Up to 8” total

Perhaps a weird transient shower/sprinkles thing.  You can see the actual drops where they froze.  On cars, and fence…maybe birds just pissed overhead….

Bad news, in this crazy band moving through noticed glazing on the car.  First time seeing this.

Seeing more oranges on the radar…curious what’s under those…ice cubes?