wolfie09

Latest WPC rain forecast through Wednesday..

Time to start hunting those first flakes lol

3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I think the Buffalo metro gets a good dose of LER tomorrow night thru Wed. All models showing about a 24 hour stretch of SW winds in that time frame and good moisture...too bad this wasn't 8 weeks from now...

Yup, global canadian shows it well..

RGEM now goes out to 84 on pivotal, which is a nice touch with winter coming up..

Gfs trending wetter for mid week..

Some more tropical activity at the end of the run..

Colors really starting to blossom, just wish I had better camera phone lol

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A longwave trough will slowly pass over our region this period,
bringing chances for rain showers each day. Early in the period cold
air aloft and southwesterly flow ahead of the trough may generate
lake effect rain to the northeast of the lakes Wednesday - Friday,
while Friday night and Saturday a westerly flow will focus rain
showers east of the Lakes.

October will open with much below normal temperatures, with highs
Thursday - Saturday 6 to 12F degrees below normal. Overnights will
be chilly, and while there will be concerns for frost/freeze late in
the period as 850 hPa temperatures dip below zero Celsius, the
presence of the upper level trough/moisture and lacking strong
surface high/subsidence may not lead to much areal coverage of
frost/freeze.

Just under 1/4" of rain so far this month..

Some much needed rain..

It's definitely passed "just changing" in the higher elevations of the tug..Took a ride through barnes corner, worth, Loraine and into N Redfield, trees looks quite advanced lol Some really nice color.. Probably should take some pics next time I roll through lol

Just outside Copenhagen, 1200 feet asl..

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A pattern shift will take place through the Long Term and warm, dry
weather will transition to cool, wet weather by Thursday.
Unfortunalty, there are different model solutions during the Long
Term period and therefore confidence remains low in regards to
intensity and timing of some weather features.

A southerly flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes Monday.
Clouds and showers are possible as a cold front approaches from the
Central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Temperatures will likely reach
the 70s through the afternoon. A deepening trough across the central
U.S. will become squeezed between two strong ridges on both sides by
Tuesday. This may produce a cut off low across the Lower Mississippi
Valley while a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes into
mid-week. Whether low pressure forms along the cold front or the
cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday-Wednesday,
showers are likely. A period of windy conditions during this
time can`t be ruled out. The shortwave trough will evolve into
a large scale trough across much of the eastern CONUS. Cool,
Canadian air will filter south across the Great Lakes. A cool,
showery period is likely late in the week.

Slower trend with the CF for the beginning of the week..

The back half of the week looks similar here with mid 50s-low 60s for highs..

Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on
Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on
Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered
to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would
appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the
front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was
looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right
entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would
see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so
sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend,
but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the
lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.

Some decent colors starting to show up..

One more warmer and mostly dry day Sunday. Eventually a much cooler
very fall like pattern develops during this time with increasing
chances of rain.

Cold front that was once to approach and bring a showery day on
Sunday continues to trend slower. Increased temps more on
Sunday now into the upper 70s to near 80F and now have lowered
to only slight chance of rain across the board, but it would
appear we are on our way to a dry forecast. Slower trend in the
front continues Sunday night through Monday night as well. Was
looking like due to slow moving front crossing and right
entrance of upper jet that some of the region on Monday would
see widespread showers with even a small risk of thunder. Not so
sure on that now. Temps will be cooler than the warm weekend,
but if this slower trend holds, we would still make it to the
lower 70s for much of the area on Monday.

Eventually, as sharp shortwave trough digging over the central CONUS
lifts northeast across the lower Great Lakes, our weather will turn
cooler and unsettled with showers further enhanced in intensity
and coverage as cooler air flows over the warmer lakes. Could
also have a period of windy conditions as well if a stronger and
deepening sfc low tracks nnw of our region. Consistency in any
one solution is lacking, so best to stay tuned to later forecasts
for more details on when the rain and significant cooling arrives
in earnest and if there will be any stronger, advisory type
winds.

Looks like it on the Canadian, at the very least some enhancement..

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The nice stretch of dry weather looks like it will come to an end
heading into the second half of the weekend and the first part of
next week as a much more amplified pattern starts to take shape. An
upper trough will dig across the upper and central Great Lakes
pushing a cold front across the region on Sunday bringing the
likelihood of some much needed rain and opening the door to some
more seasonable temperatures for late September.

A powerful shortwave will then rotate through the mean upper trough
to start the new work week. This will help the trough to deepen
further across the eastern U.S. while strong upper ridge builds
north into western Canada. Not expecting a rain out through the
entire period, however this will keep the potential for unsettled
weather in the forecast through at least the first half of next week
as a series of shortwaves rotate through the mean upper trough over
the eastern U.S.

A period of strong winds may also become possible sometime Monday
or Tuesday depending on the strength and possibly a
climatologically favored track of surface low pressure moving by
to our west and north. Stay tuned.

Otherwise, day to day cooling will occur through the period as
daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday trend
downward to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Tuesday.

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What town are you in? Where do you plan to move? 

I'm currently in Copenhagen..Looks like I'll be here at least through November.. Pretty much looking for houses mainly in Oswego county, I have looked everywhere from lacona/Redfield to Oswego/Fulton, so far lol Keep you guys posted..

Only in lewis county do you spot cows walking the streets lol

Probably one of the better years on record for Altmar/Orwell area..1995-1996 is up there as well..

City of Fulton..

About 180" fell in ksyr in 2010-2011..

250"+ from Fulton to Redfield..

27° last night here as well, once the house thermometer hits the lower 60's my heat comes on lol I have been using the heat on and off all week..

Got down to 27° overnight, already the 5th time below freezing this month, ironically enough I haven't seen much in the way of frost formation, lol

Could be due to the dry weather as of late..

Same goes for Fulton..

You can also see how bi-polar it is to live near the lakes lol

Also not much in the way of "Average"