jlauderdal

Yep, I would think by midday tomorrow we can hit the track with a 50 mile error on either side out to 48 hours..something to the right of the latest gfs and to the left of the latest euro...starting to look like more of a wind event than a blockbuster precip but you get a big multiplier effect when you include the high winds which this one will produce

The euro and gfs were consistent with Ian and were both wrong inside of 24 hours, gfs did very well with Nicole....dont give up because these models aren't giving you what you want...the amount of gfs runs that get tossed with even well developed tropical systems would make your head spin...euro is far more consistent thus less runs tossed but of course consistency can also be consistently wrong through the life of a system....Madison to Detroit are in play for the jackpot, lets see if the gfs settles down today

Thursday am is unlikely to go, im flying in weds morn, that might not go

The happy hour gfs going with more intensity, need to stop the westaward movement for the naperville crush job

150 probably a bridge too far..that said this is a very large system so everyone is going to see action and plenty of it, a complete crush job on naperville, il weds night thur friday would be ideal and then my exit on saturday

Heading from Florida on weds, this thing better deliver.

Its 2 ft plus for the new england sub to keep them happy

Its been nice here, finally cooled off. Im heading to chicago next weds, my timing looks good. Two tropical systems and an arctic blast to close out the year.

Palms like a break from the heat, 40s for awhile are good.

I'm coming up next Weds and it looks real cold but real dry, it needs to 28 and real moist.

Its a prime area for deveolpment this time of year. There is euro support too.

The long term motion isnt going to be NE, yet. However, lets see what happens once it clears cuba, land masses(mountainous terrain not required) in the tropics can do strange things to deep tropical systems with intensity and thus steering.

That map isn't going to verify for SEFL. There is already 2-4 in the bucket and we are just getting started.

Throw those out, this system will be south and east. This system will come in stronger than those runs.

Nothing doing in the tropics, SAL in control. We did have some 110 heat index readings in south florida today with 80 DP.

Flurries incoming

STEER CLEAR OF VERBATIM MODEL SNOWFALL OUTPUTS BEING SHARED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. CASTRO

Thoughts and prayers

5000 posts to consume

Just like hurricane forecasting beyond 72 hrs.

Thoughts and prayers on the recovery effort

We are getting the rare damaging tornado in Florida today...too bad we don't have any surface heating happening on the SE coast to maximize the squall line

Bust

We had rain on the SE coast a couple of days but dry since, the block is on

We have been stuck under the ridge for over a week, more of the same on the way