forkyfork

52 mph gust at ewr

https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KEWR&unit=0&timetype=GMT

14 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Flacco the Owl is dead

stupid humans....

 

the "free flaco!" idiots are responsible. they actively interfered with capture efforts 

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Each new El Niño boosts the temperatures to a higher baseline. The 09-10 El Niño marked the beginning of a much warmer summer pattern which continues to this day. The 15-16 El Niño coincided with a shift to much warmer winters. The winter warming shift was of a higher magnitude than we have seen relative to the previous means than the summers. Now the global temperature jump with the 23-24 El Niño was even higher than the 15-16 super El Niño even though it wasn’t as strong. So it will be interesting to see what happens to our temperatures in coming years at this even higher temperature baseline. 

ewr will hit 110 whenever we get a classic ridge bridge pattern

On 1/24/2024 at 9:52 AM, forkyfork said:

  

sometimes i'll see pheasant or partridge when birding before a hawk wipes them out because they're farm raised and have no survival instinct and hang out in the open

from my birder friend today. pheasant 

On 2/18/2024 at 10:06 AM, forkyfork said:

high ratio snow totals should get asterisks

high ratio snow totals should get asterisks

doesn't c mean average? temps have been way above

i was in piscataway last night and yards that got sun were down to about 3"

the highest liquid equivalent i could find in nj was .46" in east brunswick. lol

i wonder what a graph of our average winter temperatures vs the frequency of "i only care about snow in winter" posts would look like

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

How am I being optimistic? Check out the models and dew points.

he's salty about being too far north just ignore him

CPK is chesapeake virginia. central park is NYC

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I think you’re asking the wrong question. I think the right question to ask is what is the probability of Central Park getting the lowest amount of snow in the region again? And I think that’s actually likely.

 

Again, a marginal temperature situation in a marginal winter in an urban environment. If this keeps trending north, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Northern suburbs get more snow than central Park even though Central Park has more precip than the northern suburbs. And that’s what happened this past week.

Most of us still have snow on the ground… The Central Park have any left?

not true 

1 minute ago, SBUWX23 said:

what happenened?

weak system came north at the last minute

59 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro is nice but it being alone gives me lots of caution flags 

look what just happened in minneapolis 

i hope saturday busts and march is +6

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the cold has just been focused somewhere else

because the mjo keeps getting stuck in phases that favor eastern us ridging in the winter

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2015: “the west coast pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

2024: “the tropical pacific warm blob isn’t going to magically cool”

 

what's going to cool down the equatorial west pac? mid latitude storms don't reach that area  

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Folks may think your just trolling and ... I don't know, maybe that is your intent.  Either way, this may be entirely true wrt the MJO ...

 

5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Fixed it for you, c’mon man you’re a met have some integrity and commitment to the science instead of trolling people trying to enjoy a hobby. Sad 

the empirical evidence is pretty bad, no? 

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Hey my views on climate change are probably close to yours.

But is what you imply that these CA atmospheric river events are going to be even more common?

i have no idea about that. i do know about sst trends and the mjo tho

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

A couple of years ago they were talking about 10 years of drought in California. Now, is it atmospheric rivers as far as the eye can see?

maybe the huge area of near 90 degree water in the west pac will magically cool down despite co2 emissions not dropping

climate change pushed the west pac past an MJO tipping point and we're probably not going to see any sustained good winter patterns for the rest of our lives

stop looking at the weeklies lol

happy sleet storm day