Larry Cosgrove update:
Yes there is a huge warm-up in store for the lower 48 states. But there are some "bumps in the road" which will prove that we are "not out of the woods yet".
Examine the GOES EAST satellite view of North America, and you will see a well-defined Arctic (cAk) vortex digging through the Great Lakes. This gyre, besides bringing the latest dose of bitter cold to the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, may also trigger (through an anafront set-up) some moderate snows from lower Appalachia through the coastline of the Northeast this weekend.
Then there is the matter of the two storms over the eastern Pacific Ocean, one in the polar jet stream, the other subtropical. Most of the forecast guidance merge the disturbances over the West Coast, then builds an impressive, intense cyclone over the Texas Panhandle by the middle of next week. In that position, the trough and surface circulation will send air from the Gulf of Mexico rapidly northeastward, even reaching the St. Lawrence Valley. Hence the likelihood for mild/warm values across the eastern third of North America around February 15 - 18.
A word or two of warning concerning this "Panhandle Hooker B" storm. Most of the numerical models hammer out an area from Texas and Oklahoma through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys (and for that matter, most of Dixie as well) with a heavy rain and severe weather event. North of the track of this system will be a brief return to cold air as well as a moderate/heavy snow threat.
I think that the warm air bounces back over an area from the Great Plains to the East Coast in the 11-15 and 16-20 day periods. But there are clues in the model weeklies of a "one last winter storm and big cold shot" over much of the continent at some point between March 1 and 10.