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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Thursday morning could bring our first snow fall accumulation of the season for Cape Cod and the Islands, a shortwave rounding the base of the H5 trough this evening will bring a shot of arctic air to the region where highs tomorrow and the rest of the work week will remain below freezing.  We now have a very potent vorticity max disturbance in the northern jet stream flow that will amplify some as it rounds the base of the somewhat negatively tilted trough over the Northeastern US.  Snow will be falling across central MI tomorrow morning and then will quickly move towards western PA and Pittsburgh area by the evening and then redevelop off the NJ coastline by Thursday early morning hours, and then be around the benchmark 40/70 location by midday Thursday.  Depending upon the jet dynamics and the oceanic influence of the surface cyclogenesis process we could see a rapidly developing system bring snow to the south coast of New England by 6z Thursday morning and lasting for nine to twelve hours.  If enough lift can develop we could see a good to decent snow amount and especially if we can get NE to NNE winds going than moisture will be a little problem.  Therefore I am predicting a could 2" on the Cape while the Islands can receive 3" of snow the most snow will occur across central WI to central MI and then islands of MA.  Still a lot of nowcasting to go and things could change drastically if that vorticity maximum is stronger on the models/

  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is the more detailed snow map for the final call, I added an 8-12" amount region and a special 12" amounts region for the mountains of NW ME and N NH.  I think some of the mountains in northern ME could see 12-18" of snow considering nearby arctic air mass and ratios.  Also I added a blizzard conditions possible area and a high wind 60mph+ gusts area, mostly the ocean northeast of CHH, but includes CHH and the Outer Cape Cod area.  This storm will bomb out as it develops over the Cape Cod Canal, Boston is a tricky spot for the forecast, could be as little as an inch and as much as 6" possible, NE MA is most certain location for 6" in SNE.

  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The image I will share is the storm and the dynamics associated with the storm potential for tomorrow and the evolution that could help determine a blizzard or a near miss for the Cape and Islands.  AS the pressure drops in the low, the intensity and the pressure drop will help determine where the heaviest snows occur northwest of the low's track at the height of the pressure drops.  If the storm blows up and deepens 15mb/6-12 hour period, just northwest of that low track will determine the heaviest snowfall rates.  Convection will explode, cloud tops will cool rapidly as they expand upwards vertically.  Tomorrow's nor'easter and potential impacts will be determined when the low blows up and starts the rapid bombogenesis phase.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high!
    Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region.  Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT.  Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral.  This will lead to an area of blossoming precipitation on the northwest side/cold side of the low pressure center.  Impact will be expected in the high range.  Heavy snow and strong winds could lead to blizzard conditions.  Tuesday into Wednesday could see the heaviest snowfalls, over 12".  This could lead to snow over Chicago, IL and become an intense storm that changes the pattern across the central and eastern CONUS.  Updates to come in the next few days!SREFs show an all out huge snowstorm for Denver, CO
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Tonight's update shows that a cold rain looks likely for most of the Cape and Islands for Sunday night into Monday night and Tuesday.  I am sorry for those snow lovers on Cape Cod, this is not our storm.  There are still plenty of questions on the second part of the nor'easter, it seems like it could bring accumulating snows to the area later Monday night into Tuesday if the air mass is cold enough.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE.  Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.**
    A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US.  Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source.  I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow.  I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow.  So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  More will become present as we head into the first week of November.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now all options are on the table.  In the next 84 hours, the solutions will vary greatly in detail and overall vigor.  The reasoning for why so many options remain open for a blizzard to sunny days remains the unknowns.  The unknowns are the strength, wavelength, positioning of the factors at play.  One is the Arctic Shortwave, this is either the kicker s/w or the phasing backside s/w that determines if the storm gets whisked out to sea or comes to the benchmark location.  IF the phase happens like we all hope it does if you love snow, then the arctic shortwave in question is not fully sampled yet and therefore the models have no idea on the details of this shortwave.  Two is the southern stream shortwave, our energetic system for coastal development.  This should be sampled shortly within the next 12-20 hours of time on the west coast of the US.  Its strength and position have a lot to do with where the storm exists off the East Coast.  Right now, models, have it exiting around NC without phasing, this goes east and never hits the Northeast US.  If the phasing occurs, we get the storm to hit the benchmark.  Those are the questions that need to be answered in the next 84 hours.


  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snowstorm threat has become slightly enhanced the last few cycles.  06z GFS went from .5" of QPF as snow next weekend to 1.7" of QPF as snow for the 18z GFS run.  The storm track is slowly becoming suppressed on the GFS, while the other models are spilt apart in their potential solutions.  We are still under six days away, and just over five days away from the impacts of the storm.  The first upper level vortexes are moving through by Wednesday with some mix of snow and rain showers.  SNE will see mostly rain drops Wednesday, otherwise known as travel day.  Thanksgiving Day looks cold and dry for the area.
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