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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range.  This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November.  Deep cold is on tap for after the next week.  Stay Tuned!  Winter is still around the corner.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models in the long range, are beginning to show a winter like pattern beginning late OCT, sometime after the 27th.  In the next two weeks of OCT, warm air is settling in after our mid-week miller B storm center offshore of MVY sometime WED night.  Cold air will dump into the central Northern CONUS north of 40 north latitude.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters.  Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well.  A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W.  Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.  Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today radar imagery shows Ocean Effect precipitation is developing and falling over the Outer Arm of Cape Cod this early afternoon.  Radar shows flow is out of the north to northwest with rather cooler air mass moving over the low 60 degree ocean waters over the bay.  Sprinkles and a few misty periods have developed.  Radar image below shows this well.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-comp_radar-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s.  Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area.  Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY.  Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season.  Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020.  Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning.  Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week.  Stay Tuned!  We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast.
     - JWN Productions!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us.  New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter.  As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world.  As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly.  As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning.  There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend.  This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds.  Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend.  Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us.  
    Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies.  This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond.  Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns.  I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow.  I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow.  So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside.  With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans.  After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list.  This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3" 220lbs or heavier along with Gordon 6'3" too and N'Keal Harry who is the tallest at 6'4" and 230lbs.  That gives them three large bodies, athletic WRs for Brady and the offense.  Along with a deep backfield, the TE position is missing one true TE from being a formidable offense this season.  Barring any further significant injuries, this team has the ceiling of a perfect season repeat.  I believe it is a dumb part of anyone in the prediction business to predict a perfect NFL season, even if the Patriots did it just 12 years ago.  It is possible, about a 12 percent chance.  I am still on track to deliver my predictions officially by September 5th, they should be posted then, but I will work between 29th to the 4th on this process.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019.  We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020.  Fingers crossed!
    As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th.  I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned!
    Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues.  Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mask the inner pain of an emotional loss.  Something either traumatic happened to them in the maturation process growing up, before the age of 30, or the loss of a personal friend or family member in which anger was pushed to the side and not dealt with head-on can cause significant mental health risks, such as depression and illness.  Our minds are so fragile, while also so strong, we still have no idea what over 80 % of the mind does for the human body.  That is amazing.  Josh Gordon I hope pulls through, not because of his tremendous talent that will help the Patriots, but because as a human being, we love success stories, underdogs, people who beat the odds of life and their circumstances to overcome the tragedy they face in life.  I want him to have that story.  A lot of people pull for someone trying to relinquish the demons he is fighting.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather.  I will have the predictions done before September 1st.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball.  They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record.  Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better.  Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams.  He actually did it several times.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape.  This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind.  Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through.  As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts.  They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph.  What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere.  These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers.  Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast.  Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA.  The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground.  A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient.  This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling.  This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone.  Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard.  There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street.  The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house.  These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half.  Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation.  Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half.  Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area.  Half the trees were completely snapped in half.  The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here.  It was chaos.  The emotions were just filled with utter sadness.  Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable.  We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house.  Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement.  It was the scariest moment of my life.  Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon.  Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far.  Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place.  The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through.  Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them.  94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas.  People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system.  Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning.  Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night.  Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues.  Could become significant if given time over water.
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