Jump to content

USCAPEWEATHERAF

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,736

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are not crazy about the tropics right now but we have two areas of interest growing in the Tropical Atlantic as I write this blog.  First area of concern is close to home, in what we call a homegrown threat, an area of thunderstorms grew into an area of low pressure earlier this afternoon and is growing with thunderstorm activity.  It developed from a leftover frontal boundary currently racing off to the Northeast over the western Atlantic Ocean.  TS Emily grew from the same front yesterday and is now quickly diminishing in a midst of a shear and dry air.  Just as I thought from yesterday this area needed to be monitored as the area of frontal shear caused by a front in the GOM appears to be lessening now and is near 10-20 knots instead of 30-40 knots yesterday.  This shear should continue to drop according to the 18z GFS run yesterday afternoon.  This small area of low pressure is already well defined on satellite imagery this evening and appears to be gaining convection.  Depending upon if the convection is consistent and persistent will determine the tropical outlook on this system.  Next system of interest is a tropical wave currently in the MDR battling dry air to the north of it and the ITCZ influence to the south of it.  Shear is light to moderate, not enough to stop development, should become an invest tomorrow morning.  Stay tuned this system could become a threat to the lesser Antilles islands in the mid term.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point.  It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions.  It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products.  I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects.  If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise.  Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork.  I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world.  I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It appears at this moment that the next three snow threats fall on these dates or combination of dates:  15/16th, 18/19th and 20/21, almost every other day kind of succession pattern as the jet becomes quite active with multiple energetic systems in the flow.  As you try and solve a puzzle, you try to fit the pieces in the area you believe it belongs looking at the picture it is supposed to be on the front of the box.  Weather forecasting is the same basic idea.  The difference and is a major difference is that that puzzle is constantly changing in every direction, every piece is changing, and every place that piece is supposed to be is changing.  The weather is a puzzle in constant flux.  The idea of weather systems is the transferring of heat from tropics to polar regions.  A major storm develops along the boundary between extreme heat and extreme cold.  It is meant to transfer that heat to the coldest reaches of the world.  The world is constant balance, and needs to remain in this constant balance to sustain life and the human race and everything it encompasses.  It is such a perfect design the weather makes no mistakes.  However, since human error is a major problem in our lives and since it is all over the place, errors will always happen.  We are not perfect.  Avoiding going into a religious diatribe, I will go back to the next three events.  Right now, the pattern appears to favor EPO ridging combining with the PNAP ridging present.  With ridging potential in both locations, we could have a major push of cold air into the eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS in the 15/16th period.  The pattern is in flux and there is hardly any agreement overall on the H5 pattern aloft.  Some guidance suggests the pattern transitions from a +EPO/-PNA to a -EPO/+PNA then back and forth for these next three events.  So it could be a snow event followed by rain event and then back to snow event for SNE.  Right now, a lot can change even for an event in the next 72 hours.  I will have more tomorrow evening.  Unless something big changes.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands.  Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours.  However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon.  Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests.  We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation.  For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    These images on top are from the 18z GFS run tonight, from hours 300-348, they show the evolution of our southern stream disturbance phasing with the large northern stream long wave trough, acting as at least a double phased jet structured storm if not three jets with the arctic jet also getting involved.  Only triple phased streams allow a 940mb surface low to develop over DE ME.  Could a storm of this magnitude evolve in this pattern for mid month?  Absolutely, but how accurate is the model?  Horribly inconsistent, but when it smells out a storm potential this is the time range it does it in.  For the last two consecutive model runs for the GFS it has shown two monster storms back to back mid month of December, this first one is a triple point low, the second is a consolidated low, but we have potential for snow next week, so I won't get carried away with this shortwave, as the first shortwave with this new pattern can slam New England hard with heavy snow.  So I will focus next few blogs on the short term.






  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest models in agreement for up to 8" snowfall amounts for the south coast of CT, RI and SE MA tomorrow night into Monday.  Heaviest snows appear to occur between 12 am-midnight Monday to 12 pm noon time Monday for most of Southern New England.  Coastal low development, secondary low potentially stronger than modeled currently could become a bigger impactful storm in future runs where 10" amounts could become possible, but right now, not smart to forecast over 8" of snow in bands.  One band appears to develop over the VT/NH/MA border from the I90 pike northward and then I90 pike southward another strong band of lift in the DGZ could produce snowfall rates of 1"+/hour.  Winds should not be much of an impact until later Monday afternoon as the secondary low bombs out over the open ocean waters as it will take 24-36 hours from 1000mb to 950mb over and east of New Foundland, Canada.  Right now, the potential is this storm is strongest of the winter for the region.

  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Ok, remember the last few posts have been about the past, well today's blog is about the future.  IN the next 8-10 days periods of cold and rain are possible with a few mix events, but the main event looks to be in the Saturday/Sunday timeframe for New England storm system.  Questions remain, but the gist of the future is that a potential coastal storm is looming.  Currently models are not far enough south with the low, so it appears it will be a rain event, but with a Greenland block and PNA ridging, cold air looks strong and should push the upper level low to the southwest over time on the model forecasts.  We will have to continue to monitor future runs.  For now, potential exists for a snowstorm in New England.

  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend.  With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England.  Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating.  However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week.  Still a ways to go...
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS.  It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic.  The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses.  As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will result in a progressive northern branch of the jet stream with frequent cold fronts moving in from Canada and the Great Lakes.  With each progression, and determining what the teleconnections favor, frequent clippers will be the main storm type for a majority of the 2020-2021 winter.  Whether these systems blow up along the East Coast and Gulf Stream will be determined as I mentioned above, the teleconnections and most appreciably the North American Pacific Pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is determined by the presence and pressure pattern of the Icelandic Low Pressure and Greenland Ridge pressure pattern.  Also, the pattern evolving is favoring a transitional period in the pattern across the North and west hemispheres.  Snow is showing up on the models across the Great Lakes in the next 7 days, stay tuned!
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    What I am thinking preliminarily right now for this weekend as ocean effect snow gives way to a northern stream (arctic jet stream) disturbance running through the flow amps a bit as it reaches the East Coast of the US and perhaps tries to tilt negatively for a time this Friday and Saturday.  There are many different disturbances in the flow this weekend that could turn something meager into a beast of a storm.  The runs this weekend of showing a monster hit are no longer showing this due to the presence of a strong upper level low over the NE pacific Ocean influencing the departure of the positive values in the PNA region.  If this disturbance were to weaken or split into two groups, one moving westward into the northern Pacific and the other piece of the low moving into the US, then the ridge would be able to build itself upwards once again and positively influence our troughing in a more positive way this weekend.  However, there is poor sampling in this part of the Pacific Ocean, and there is no way in knowing how the PNA ridge will react to a split in the disturbance energy field.  Some models collapse the ridge temporarily while others recharge it later on into Monday through the rest of the New Year first week.  therefore, models are now signaling there will not be a full phase between the Arctic jet and the Pacific jet so there will be no bombogenesis present this weekend, however, models are keying in on a potential one jet bombing low pressure center as it takes off, off the NJ coastline sometime Sunday and produce its own snow shield, this could put down a 1-2" swath of snow from western VT to eastern and southern ME and north of the MA Pike, while areas south of the MA Pike see 2-4" generally, while the South Coast of MA, Ri and SW CT see about 4-8" due to the high snow ratios and then the cape cod area east of Barnstable and Hyannis could see upwards of 8-12" or more of snow as ocean effect adds to the fluff factor and a very little of moisture can lead to high amounts of snow.  I am expecting models to back more precip onto the SNE coastline than currently projected first because of the OES processes and also because I expect the storm to be further northwest in the end and strengthen a little faster in earlier developmental phase.  I will have another map after the 00z runs tonight if I need to change anything.

  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Here is my third and final snow map for the Nor'easter tonight into Wednesday morning, 24 hour duration of snow, 24-30" in the jack pot zones likely, widespread 12-18" in all of eastern New England, snowfall rates may exceed 3-4"/hour, thundersnow potential is real, whiteout conditions will run rampant, high of around 35F and low around 28F on Tuesday for the Cape Cod area.  Blizzard warnings are likely later this afternoon once the 12z package rolls through.  Big potential for top three snowfall in Harwich, MA.  My snowfall map is for New England only

  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A decent to significant snow threat exists between Monday, FEB 10th and Wednesday FEB 12th of this upcoming work week.  Models are showing a strong -EPO/+PNA ridge couplet with a strong -AO arctic vortex near Hudson Bay, Canada and a stalled out front along the East Coast of the US.  We don't know the eventual tilt of the short wave trough that comes out of Canada in the arctic jet and we don't know the position of the coastal low and its track or strength.  We don't know the presence of enough cold air to produce snow.  However, this is our first legit shot at something significant.  Stay Tuned!
×
×
  • Create New...