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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I am going to start working on a new short story, an extension of the first short story, "A love Story" the story of Marie and Walter living their dream lives in SW Florida.  Check out the first short story below.  Become a fan and interact with the author, JWN Productions, in the comment section, ask him questions.
    A couple, a love story.docx
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My work is being done for my company to come out rolling the billions at some point.  It will be hard to sustain a tremendous amount of growth business wise with just myself working full-time with this business venture, my working name is JWN Productions.  It is a high rolling company in the works, I could always use some freelance writers who are looking for work full-time or part-time, remember we only get paid when the customers are buying the finished published products.  I am currently working on the Awakening Dawn novels, I figured I should work hard on the original money making ideas and finished them before I go on to other projects.  If I roll my dice correctly, I could be paying my future roads for years with the first franchise.  Then the other franchise novel series will be for fun and not so much business, but I want to make as much money as possible, it will take hard work and around the clockwork.  I am prepared to do what it takes to big it huge in this world.  I will be famous someday for hard work and creativeness.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My latest draft of the Awakening Dawn is ready to be read by anyone willing to read the novel.  It is 291 pages long and 97,000 words deep.  It is about the precursor hurricane landfalls before the end of the world starts.  It is the first in what I hope is a series of novels, first one is called, "Awakening Dawn", the second one is called "Until Dawn, and Until Dusk", then the third novel in the series is "End of the Dusk"
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This winter outlook is the preliminary try for JWN productions, weather amateur forecasting, and writing business.  We have several indications that a big snowy winter is coming for Southern New England.  While water temperatures between 35N:75W, 35N:70W, 40N:75W, 40N:75W within this box can help determine the potential baroclinicity involved in a potential winter storm, determining how much moisture is available to the storm's potential snowfall amounts.  If the water temperatures are above normal in this location, than chances are there is a greater than normal chance at significant snowfall for the areas north and northwest of the storm's track, now if it is colder than normal the reverse impact, there is no real science yet to help determine if the Gulf Stream's impact's go beyond intensity of a winter storm and its precipitation outlook, storm track is just a chance of happening along the Gulf Stream, it is not a reason for the storms tracking the way they do, but what does is the positioning and intensity of several upper level features, like the +PNA ridge, and its location and amplitude, as well as the 50/50 -NAO low, and the Greenland Ridge of the -NAO regime, as well as positioning and potential for a colder than normal atmosphere, in a -AO polar Vortex location and amplitude of the arctic jet stream.  While there are factors we know about that impact the long duration indices of the NAO/PNA/AO, we don't know what the day to day and week to week levels of the indices will be determining the outcome of a winter storm's location, intensity, and impact.
    An active Sub-tropical jet streams are notorious in El Nino ENSO patterns, therefore I expect the Gulf of Mexico to have extreme precipitation changes, along with a strong chance for severe weather from Florida to the Carolinas.  It also appears the +PNA will poke its large head onto the Western CONUS during the winter months, allowing an amplified jet stream to impact the troughing over the eastern US, leading to numerous storm chances along the East Coast, now intensity, precipitation amounts, and track will have a lot to do with the -NAO/AO pattern too, those are accurately forecasted at this time, but for now I will have to say an active Jan - Mar will have numerous blizzard potentials.  All for an above normal winter for snowfall, especially from NYC to BOS.

  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Without a true marine layer influence this late summer day, we could see a major severe weather outbreak late on Friday night.  Shear and instability need to be checked but models show a very potent upper level low traversing the region late Friday afternoon swinging a cold front which will bring below normal temperatures through the area later this weekend into the early weekdays.  Stay tuned and listen to the latest from your NWS WFO.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Since the pattern has changed and we are now in an active northern stream regime, cold air will be getting worse and worse, deeper and deeper in nature as each trough takes aim at the New England region, where eventually we will see our first snow in SNE around the first week in November as cold air becomes sustained, Mount Washington, New Hampshire already saw their first snow of the year.  +PNA/-NAO pattern has begun and could sustain itself for quite awhile into January or beyond.  Still a lot of data coming in.  WIll update you on the latest when it comes imminent.
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Anomalous +PNA ridge blocking regime seems fit for the end of the month weeks into early November, this pattern should yield a powerful storm with orgins in the Arctic Realm.  The questions arise on the arrival of the arctic jet, how close does it phase into the southern trough in the El Nino regime developing over the Pacific Ocean, equator seems fascinating with SSTs pattern and aloft in the atmosphere.  Will share more later tomorrow.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The first moderate snowstorm of the fall season and winter season comes for Tuesday into Wednesday, October 23-24th, 2018 from Caribou, ME CWA northwestward into the mountains of NW Maine, where up to 8" is possible, and forecasted by the models.  I have my first snowfall map this year posted in the NNE fall thread and I will post below.  An arctic jet will come southeastward during the late weekend into the early weekdays of the next few days.  As it hits the SE New England coastline a surface low will develop and rapidly deepen moving NNEward towards eastern ME causing a blossoming area of precip and snow to the northwest of the track of the surface low as it taps the arctic jet which closes off at H5 over eastern ME causing extreme deepening of the surface low as it moves NNEward.  This low will bring rain to eastern New England with an area of blossoming heavy precip as it tracks northward.  This could be a sign of an active New England snowfall this winter season, especially favoring eastern MA, NH and ME.

  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A massive Great Lakes storm system will impact the US sometime in the next 7-8 days from now maybe sooner and will switch the pattern to an EC trough and WC ridge pattern favoring cold and stormy conditions for the Eastern CONUS in the mid to late month time frame.  A massive snowstorm is a potential noise maker come November 12-18th period.  The signal is increasing for a formidable Clipper approaching the EC to come after 10 days.  EURO, GFS both have this system.  Cold temps look to stay prevalent throughout the rest of the month.  Stay tuned

  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While it seems impossible to ignore, the models are clearing showing signs of winter arriving earlier than the past several winters of New England.  Snow could fall as early as next week across the lower Southern Plains of OK, KS, and TX and then move into New England as the southern stream becomes active and perhaps develop with the arctic stream to phase and develop a significant nor'easter with cold temperatures over the region.  Would like to see more and better model support over the next two weeks to get better confidence with this idea.  For now, we will have a succession of rainstorms impacting the Northeastern US with flooding rains and severe weather this weekend as an upper-level trough tilts to the negative position as it moves through New England.  This will determine the potential for a lot of wind on the coastline as the high-resolution models point to a significant wind event.  Stay tuned!  This winter will get exciting.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Models are beginning to show signs of a potential winter storm in the 6-8 day period.  EURO and GGEM show this storm impacting SNE, with ocean effect snows and synoptic precip, the GGEM is a little warmer than the 00z EURO, which shows this potential as a trough swings through the upper level flow.  I have been keying on this potential as there appears to be a Quebec, Canada Arctic high in place north of the storm and north of NYS.  This will lock in the cold air at the surface into the coastline.  GFS is finally showing snow precip accumulating for CHH.  There is a strong potential for a storm center on the East Coast, but that is where the forecast departs on the model guidance.  Stay tuned!
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough to turn the rain to snow for me on Cape Cod on Tuesday as a very cold airmass follows this system into the region, highs on Thanksgiving could lead to Ocean Effect Snows, but we all know how fickle that can be on the models.  Stay tuned!  Snow map tomorrow afternoon.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Arctic front comes through the region by 00z Thursday, Wednesday evening around 7 pm, OES cloud streets develop several hours later as 850mb temps drop 30-40 C, around -20C by Thursday 12z (7am EST), where the OES machine should be in full force, over the ocean south of Nova Scotia the accumulations would bring 6-12" of snow over the water, but given we are close to land and need a northerly wind, that chances are we see more than .5" of snow is around 15%, snow chance around 40%, that includes mood flurries.  Right now mesoscale models are not in range yet, so will have to monitor if trends allow higher precip amounts.  Stay tuned!
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