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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Could we see snow in the next 6-10 days, I believe so, do not pay attention to individual runs of the operational models, they will have flaws in them run to run, but look at the ensembles and their means and they will show you the way.  I found this map on PSU EWALL website, the models are 12z runs of the EURO, GFS and CMC from left to right.  They pretty much agree on ridging in Alaska, our -EPO/+PNA feature, along with a ridge in northern Greenland and some ridging in northeastern Canada west of New Foundland.  Stay tuned, we could be tackling a major east coast snowstorm in this time frame.

  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Below is the forecasted sounding from the 18z GFS for 111 hours out, which is around Wednesday afternoon.  This event for Ocean Effect Snows and inverted trough mix could be quite prolific, like the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario events, why, according to the model, we have a lot of moisture present, NNE winds present from 850mb to surface, 850mb temps dropping below -16C, SSTs around +8-9C, leading to 850mb to surface differentials around +25C leading to high instability, inversion heights near 700mb which mean the surface to 700mb is highly moist as NNE winds favor that environment with dry air gone Cape Cod from Chatham to Plymouth, MA could see high snowfall totals.  Ocean induced CAPE values likely to be higher than normal, and normal CAPE values should be around .18 sufficient for the salt nucleus.  DGZ near the ground, with lift inside around -12 to -18 units.  I favor locations such as Plymouth, Barnstable and Nantucket counties for snow accumulations.  Updates will continue to come.

  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Arctic front comes through the region by 00z Thursday, Wednesday evening around 7 pm, OES cloud streets develop several hours later as 850mb temps drop 30-40 C, around -20C by Thursday 12z (7am EST), where the OES machine should be in full force, over the ocean south of Nova Scotia the accumulations would bring 6-12" of snow over the water, but given we are close to land and need a northerly wind, that chances are we see more than .5" of snow is around 15%, snow chance around 40%, that includes mood flurries.  Right now mesoscale models are not in range yet, so will have to monitor if trends allow higher precip amounts.  Stay tuned!
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  More will become present as we head into the first week of November.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    12z EURO and EPS mean show potential for blocking pattern for an east coast snowstorm, with cold air present, and a coastal storm on the New England coastline, models show potential for winter weather on the 27-29th of November, this could be a long duration event, but it could be rain on the coast.  Right now specifics are not smart to forecast given its still 5 days away in time.  This is still an eternity.  However, models have flipped the pattern in the longer range to a less favorable pattern for cold and snowy chances and instead have a ridge of high pressure over the region.  This could easily change back and forth for the next few days.  Snow is a potential, not the forecast.



  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest 18z NAM brings hope to snow weenies across SE New England for next week.  In the TUE/WED time frame an explosive disturbance is running through the northern stream flow and amplifies right on the coastline, now if trends continue to a more amped up disturbance, we could see a much higher impactful storm develop near the benchmark, stay tuned!


  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now all options are on the table.  In the next 84 hours, the solutions will vary greatly in detail and overall vigor.  The reasoning for why so many options remain open for a blizzard to sunny days remains the unknowns.  The unknowns are the strength, wavelength, positioning of the factors at play.  One is the Arctic Shortwave, this is either the kicker s/w or the phasing backside s/w that determines if the storm gets whisked out to sea or comes to the benchmark location.  IF the phase happens like we all hope it does if you love snow, then the arctic shortwave in question is not fully sampled yet and therefore the models have no idea on the details of this shortwave.  Two is the southern stream shortwave, our energetic system for coastal development.  This should be sampled shortly within the next 12-20 hours of time on the west coast of the US.  Its strength and position have a lot to do with where the storm exists off the East Coast.  Right now, models, have it exiting around NC without phasing, this goes east and never hits the Northeast US.  If the phasing occurs, we get the storm to hit the benchmark.  Those are the questions that need to be answered in the next 84 hours.


  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
  17. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A major winter storm is pegged to strike the Central US plains and the Central to western Great Lakes region later Sunday night through Tuesday of next week.  This is all a part of a large weather system powered by a central US trough, anchored by a large upper-level low-pressure center.  Large widespread snow amounts of 10-12" is possible especially in banding from MO to IL to MI.  More widespread amounts of 3-6" is likely in the region either side of the 10-12" isolated 14".  The system should bring potential rain later this week to New England and snow to the mountains of western ME and NH.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region.  These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance.  There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days.  Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers.  Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away.  Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not.  For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss.  Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame.  Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons.  Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region.  First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners.  Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why?  500mb patterns!  At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region.  Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th.  Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough to turn the rain to snow for me on Cape Cod on Tuesday as a very cold airmass follows this system into the region, highs on Thanksgiving could lead to Ocean Effect Snows, but we all know how fickle that can be on the models.  Stay tuned!  Snow map tomorrow afternoon.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A rather potent -NAO block is occurring in our atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere this upcoming week into the weekend.  The GFS forecasts 850mb temps to be rather mediocre for intense Ocean Effect Snows, but with northerly winds at the surface through 850mb, there is a strong chance we could see ocean enhanced snowfall later next week, around the 30th of November into the weekend.  Stay tuned!
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    With the many arctic shortwaves present in the flow of the northern stream, the Arctic is opened for business but remains extremely hostile for any significant coastal storms to impact the region.  With the questions remain about phasing or not phasing streams in the split flow regime spells extreme instability in the model fields.  With this in mind, no snow midweek and the next weekend system remains in question and minimal at this time.
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