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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  1. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hello southern New Englanders, this evening update is about the latest guidance showing a potential pattern change storm erupting in the 5-10 day range.  This storm signals the erupt change to a colder and maybe perhaps more stable pattern towards Halloween and the change into the month of November.  Deep cold is on tap for after the next week.  Stay Tuned!  Winter is still around the corner.
  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A major winter storm is pegged to strike the Central US plains and the Central to western Great Lakes region later Sunday night through Tuesday of next week.  This is all a part of a large weather system powered by a central US trough, anchored by a large upper-level low-pressure center.  Large widespread snow amounts of 10-12" is possible especially in banding from MO to IL to MI.  More widespread amounts of 3-6" is likely in the region either side of the 10-12" isolated 14".  The system should bring potential rain later this week to New England and snow to the mountains of western ME and NH.
  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Other than the news that my second novel is progressing well today, we have some weather to discuss.  Teleconnections tell us what kind of 500mb pattern we can expect to shape up in that time frame.  Normally 2-4 days, his medium to high confidence, 4-8 days is low to medium and 8+ days is usually low confidence for various reasons.  Our snowstorm potential exists because two thirds of our pattern is showing a good sign for a snowstorm to impact the New England region.  First we have to have a neutral or positive PNA, now if we have a +NAO, we normally need a +PNA, but if we have a -NAO we can compensate for having a neutral PNA, and if we have a -NAO/-AO combo than cold air will be present, but it could be over the plains and Great Lakes rather than over our region and we can expect rainy conditions as milder air pours over the region with the storm track to our west, perhaps producing inland cutters or inland runners.  Now if we have a +PNA/-NAO/-AO combo of all three present, than we can pretty much assume an East Coast blizzard, why?  500mb patterns!  At 500mb a +PNA index represents riding in the WNAM region and a trough in the ENAM region or Eastern North American region.  Models are beginning to show colder air infiltrating our region by segments, the strongest segment comes around the 19th.  Stay tuned as there is a lot to determine before I make a call that could cost my dad thousands of dollars.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest 18z NAM brings hope to snow weenies across SE New England for next week.  In the TUE/WED time frame an explosive disturbance is running through the northern stream flow and amplifies right on the coastline, now if trends continue to a more amped up disturbance, we could see a much higher impactful storm develop near the benchmark, stay tuned!


  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Could Cape Cod see their first accumulating snows of the season tomorrow afternoon into Monday?  I think so, latest guidance is edging towards an impact with some snow, the question is how much precipitation does fall over the area?  WV suggests that the northern confluence zone and northern stream energy causing the southward movement of the precipitation is actually moving out of Quebec, Canada at a quicker fashion, is it enough to allow the southern stream disturbance to intensify and push precipitation back into SNE?  I don't know, but tomorrows short range guidance will get a much clearer idea and I will give an accumulations map if we edge that way tomorrow morning.  Let's Go Patriots!
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **Alert Level** (High), potential snowstorm impact in the next three days, high!
    Parts of the Denver region could see multiple feet of snow in the mountains and in the city region.  Snowfall amounts of 10-30" is possible as the period ends 00z Wednesday, or Tuesday 8 pm EDT.  Multiple model consensus shows a strong trough entering CA now and moving over the area by Monday afternoon into Tuesday.  This will lead to leeward cyclogenesis to occur as the trough tilts more neutral.  This will lead to an area of blossoming precipitation on the northwest side/cold side of the low pressure center.  Impact will be expected in the high range.  Heavy snow and strong winds could lead to blizzard conditions.  Tuesday into Wednesday could see the heaviest snowfalls, over 12".  This could lead to snow over Chicago, IL and become an intense storm that changes the pattern across the central and eastern CONUS.  Updates to come in the next few days!SREFs show an all out huge snowstorm for Denver, CO
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now if I were to do a snow map I would focus on areas just west of the Canal and focus on a Providence, RI to Boston, MA route along I95.  Snow could accumulate quickly with a quick band of heavy snows, precip shows about .50 to .75" of a quick burst on the GFS and its members, EURO and CMC are too far southeast for anything substantial at this time.  And NAM is just getting into the frame of time.  Right now there is about a 35% chance the mid levels of the atmosphere could be cold enough to turn the rain to snow for me on Cape Cod on Tuesday as a very cold airmass follows this system into the region, highs on Thanksgiving could lead to Ocean Effect Snows, but we all know how fickle that can be on the models.  Stay tuned!  Snow map tomorrow afternoon.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential.  Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days.  We just aren't there yet.  Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin.  That is as much a given as anything right now.  Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near average to slightly below average with dry conditions.  We will know when something decent is coming in the 3 day range.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in the lower 20s.  BRRRR!!!!!!!!!Current MESO OBS
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Strong anomalously cold air heading towards the CONUS, eastern 2/3rds, east of the Rockies,
    Very warm air across SW CONUS, including the states of CA, NV and NM.
    Fire dangers will continue for the areas impacted to this date.
    Very little mountain snow/rain for CA, OR and WA. 
    MT to Great Lakes and Northeastern US will see above normal snowfall, perhaps quite intense snowfalls in the coming weeks
    November will bring snow and cold for most of the eastern CONUS
    Alaska should remain rather dry and mild, I wouldn't say warm
    Big storm threats for snow along the I-95 corridor and the immediate coastline of the Mid-Atlantic and New England regions will being next week, Monday-Wednesday
    Pattern now is a combination of a -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime
    Upper level pattern establishing itself now will favor prolonged sustained cold air and snow potentials due to anomalous ridging in Alaska and the PNA regions, and Greenland block developing in the North Atlantic Polar Regions
    Below are the maps of the pattern present and the snowfall and storm tracks anticipated for the next 48-60 days.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Due to the presence of an -20C 850mb temp anomalies, we can expect the presence of ocean effect snow squalls, on NNW winds across most of the mid to outer Cape Cod, NWS BOX mentions 40% chance at snow over my head in Harwich, MA, and a chance at a few inches in localized areas.  Stay tuned!  As snow squalls, tomorrow night could also add to travel hazards.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    With the many arctic shortwaves present in the flow of the northern stream, the Arctic is opened for business but remains extremely hostile for any significant coastal storms to impact the region.  With the questions remain about phasing or not phasing streams in the split flow regime spells extreme instability in the model fields.  With this in mind, no snow midweek and the next weekend system remains in question and minimal at this time.
  14. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A rather potent -NAO block is occurring in our atmosphere in the Western Hemisphere this upcoming week into the weekend.  The GFS forecasts 850mb temps to be rather mediocre for intense Ocean Effect Snows, but with northerly winds at the surface through 850mb, there is a strong chance we could see ocean enhanced snowfall later next week, around the 30th of November into the weekend.  Stay tuned!
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return.  Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS.  BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models.  However, I am not sold on this potential at this time.  There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm.  We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region.  These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance.  There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days.  Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers.  Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away.  Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not.  For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  More will become present as we head into the first week of November.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.
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