AppsRunner

DMX trimmed a few more counties off their warning. Euro would be quite nice overnight but I’m certainly not holding my breath. Looking good for southeast Iowa though

RGEM is a tick south from the 6z run. Ends up a little slower/stronger with the low in north central IL at 12z tomorrow.

Just your casual 200 mile trend over 5 models runs.

I think I am going to have a few complaints soon.

Not anymore

Actually concerned that I’ll be missed to the south today. It’s almost inconceivable that the 12z runs yesterday were showing sleet/rain here and not a lot of snow. I don’t know how he did it, but this is all @cyclone77‘s fault.

GEM is south, but probably going to be as wet as last run. Part of the reason we’re seeing a shift with this cycle is that models are now slowing the ejection of the main vort where it now misses the more phased solution we’ve seen for days. The result is a slower system that eventually swoops north/northeast towards Chicago, but the slower progression means that QPF increases. I also wonder if ratios will be a bit better on the north end as more cold air filters in

Feel bad for the people working the night shift tonight. Can’t remember seeing such a drastic change while other short range models are generally consistent.

RGEM is south too. Not nearly like the NAM but still south of its previous runs

The NAM is going to be... interesting

Pretty significant wetter trend on recent runs. Maybe a touch cooler across IA too. DMX put in a few rows of warnings

More importantly is it’s finally producing QPF similar to other models.

ECM is a touch south of its 00z run and closer to the NAM/3k/UKMET. Would be a 3-6" for most of IA into far N IL and southern WI.

12z NAM/3k are a bit stronger with at least a slightly more coherent precip shield, but still is on the southern/drier side of guidance. GFS/FV3 are in reasonable agreement here with most other models relatively similar. There seems to be a good chance of some decent rates tomorrow morning/afternoon across portions of IA with deep lift through a 2500ft DGZ. Temp profiles are very marginal during the afternoon and outside of the main forcing there would probably be some areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle, but recent GFS runs have held on to deeper moisture profiles compared to a couple days ago. Small shifts in storm track could be pretty significant for DSM/Ames towards Waterloo/Dubuque/Madison which all lie on or just south of the main snow swath.

Don’t hate this storm right now. Won’t get excited until it starts snowing though. Plenty of shifts possible

This ended up being pretty accurate. Somewhere between 1.5-2.5" in Ames, A little bit more in DSM. Less anywhere west of I-35. Brutal storm. Glad to see some others that had been struggling for years cash in (Cyclone77) and others getting a big storm + lake-effect.

It’s not going to be a huge system but GFS/Euro both paint a swath of 3-6” somewhere in IA/WI/Maybe IL

Holding on to decent snows for now. RAP/HRRR now closer to the high end of 4-6”. Can only hope. 3/4 SM vis

Starting off the storm with... graupel

There’s going to be a razor sharp gradient on the NW side. I think I’m personally out of luck but especially the southeast side of DSM looks good

Des Moines may be in for a really good 6-12 hour period this afternoon. HRRR repeatedly showing 6-12” of snow there and areas south/east

May manage 4" here but a lot depends on how far north/west the synoptic bands make it. Not optimistic.

You aren’t wrong, but even then most globals and other high res guidance has been putting a nice gradient down somewhere in west central Iowa. Even then I don’t feel great about widespread warning criteria snow. Something about this storm just doesn’t feel right to me.

HRRR/RAP/RGEM trends have been extremely unfavorable. Or I could just be sleep deprived after a week of regular work and tracking this in my spare time, but I don’t feel good about this at all

There’s a decent chance that central Iowa barely gets advisory criteria snow. These trends don’t look ideal.