SluggerWx

Interesting analog for W. Kansas near Garden City tomorrow evening (5/3/99 - OKC).

Next weekend and into the week of 5/20 continue to show promise for the last few days on the GFS. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

The severe warned storm near the KS/OK border is showing '"> 4.0" inch hail at the moment. That's insane. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Cell just South/Southeast of Tahlequah, OK needs to be TOR warned. *edit - now TOR warned.

The cell due south of Miami, OK is organizing and will track really close to Joplin in the next 2 hours.

And I think they just got hit by the tornado.

Amazing footage on KOCO - can't say that any other way.

Live tornado on KOCO right now - really solid structure & large cone attm.

This is escalating very quickly.

Latest run of HRRR and the 12z WRF-ARW now showing some agreement on discrete activity in Eastern OK by 18z. Previous runs had a more congealed QLCS look vs the more discrete activity it's currently showing. I wonder if we'll see a MOD for Eastern OK with the next D1 update from the SPC. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

Pretty dangerous looking cell directly approaching San Antonio. Massive hail and an ominous radar presentation. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

This is quite the accomplishment...

PDS TOR Warning on the Devil's Tower TOR warned storm.

Really cool gravity waves present on GOES-16 imagery out ahead of the line to the west of DFW. You can see a really zoomed in view here: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=local-Cen_Texas-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

SPC mentioned a potential risk category upgrade for Monday in AL/GA/TN. "Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established." If the NAM verified, it could be a MDT type event. Given what the GFS/ECMWF show, though, I'd bet on an Enhanced D1 Outlook issued late tomorrow evening/Mon morning. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

I'm guessing the overshooting tops are the TW'd cells. We're just south of Albuquerque - camera is pointed due West towards Santa Rosa. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

I'm 35,000 feet in the air right now about to pass over Albuquerque. Different way to chase... Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

This is an intense supercell...

Not sure if someone's going to start a thread about Sunday or events into next week, maybe it would be a good idea... Anyways, 18z GFS shows pretty pretty crazy soundings near Ardmore, OK Sunday evening.

The bow is developing a few pretty intense circulations, it looks like we could see about 3 more tornado warnings within the next 10 minutes.

The cell crossing the TX border into LA is really interesting. You have a north-most Tornado warned portion of the cell that's directly connected to a southern flanking bow echo that's SVR warned. Usually we see 'tail end Charlie's' - but what's the name for this? I don't remember seeing this situation that frequently.

Last couple days the GFS is picking up on substantial instability Sunday afternoon/evening in S. KS / N. OK. It actually hinted at this area about a week ago for right around this time frame before vanishing for about 5 days. Back again.

Still a long way out, but the GFS hints at a potential midweek, multi-day threat across the plains in mid-March. Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk

As recently as the 12z GFS runs yesterday, the start of June had looked pretty inactive after the insane cape values the GFS had been showing for late May. Today's model runs are the complete opposite. If the GFS continues this trend for early June over the coming days, the last 8-10 days of May and the first 4-5 days of June look to be active nearly every day on the Plains. I was trying to plan a chase trip for the 1st week of June, so I've been checking the GFS runs since early June came into range. Really interesting change over the last 48 hours for early June on the GFS.

Maybe someone should start a 5/22 - 5/30 Severe Weather Threat thread? Today's Day 7/8 outlook from the SPC indicates they are expecting a larger-scale pattern change more conducive to severe weather next week. The last few GFS runs show higher 3km EHI values for the period, but they aren't overwhelmingly being supported by high cape values. It looks like SRH/shear are contributing to the higher EHI values, which seems to have been lacking somewhat during prior periods this season. SPC's note today: DAYS 6/7 SUNDAY/MONDAY...AN INCREASINGLY SEVERE-CONDUCIVE PATTERN FOR THE PLAINS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN STATES TROUGH CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSITIONS NORTHWARD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS/MN...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS WESTERN OK/TX.