SluggerWx

Tomorrow (5/17) already has an Enhanced Risk for Central Texas. Some crazy 3km EHI figures showing up on the NAM 4K at 00z.

Tuesday and Wednesday of next week show extremely high CAPE values all across the Central Plains (from the 00z GFS). And then there's the 6,000+ CAPE values it shows in central Oklahoma on Monday 5/16...

Mother's Day (Sunday, May 8) through Tuesday still look pretty interesting. A ways to go still, but I know the GFS has hints at something evolving over the plains/Arkalatex region as early as five days ago. We'll see.

Still a LONG ways out, but the GFS does show a potentially significant event over the OKC area the afternoon of Sunday, May 8. Worth monitoring in subsequent model runs.

Greensburg, KS getting hit by 3 inch hail attm, at least according to radar.

JoMo - a year ago today a lot of us on here were worried the worst had happened after your final post as the couplet approached. Through the interwebs, we tried to track down your location to see if you were in the path, hoping to give some inclination that we had not lost one of our fellow weather fans. We feared the worst and hoped for the best. It's amazing to remember that I was combing through google maps a year ago tomorrow night trying to identify if you survived...I still can't believe that's what we were doing - looking for your location to see if it was in the worst damage path - for any sort of idea of your well-being. This likely pales in comparison to what you were going through a year ago tomorrow night - I can only try to understand through the amazing first hand account you've shared with us over the past year. JoMo Survived!! The moment first word broke that you were ok - I remember yelling out to my wife 'He's okay!' She knew exactly what I was talking about...cried a little bit at that time -out of joy/relief (I'm sorry if that's weird - maybe it is, but it was so uplifting to see that in such a moment of tragedy, this community of enthusiasts had a member that made it). I'm a grown adult man, but at that time - it was a glimmer of hope in the shroud of unspeakable tragedy we had only begun to understand. I've never met you, but I do want you to know that my thoughts and prayers were with you then, and they will continue to be with you and your fellow neighbors of Joplin as you relive this experience one year later. Glad you're alive, my friend. -Ryan

JoMo - I think Cyclone and I were the ones (along with others) doing the same google earth mapping to find your house at about 2 AM in the morning after the tornado. Someone found some old snow shots you had posted, and we were able to make an educated guess that you were slightly NW of the most intense damage path. Then, some folks had linked to a 'path' of the tornado outlined on Google Earth that took the thing right over your place. Still, we persisted that path was sligthly off. We posted some maps showing our research, and I'll delete those posts if you want me to. I remember using Google Maps and my huge high def TV on pause mode because I had a 6 hour live recording of everything that unfolded that day as they showed it on TWC. I was able to find the pool to the north of the hospital to view the damage path. It looked like everything to the north and west of the pool had less and less damage, and that's about a mile or so from where we thought your street was. Still, there was nothin' like when you finally showed up. I think even my wife was excited! Prayed for you man, many people did. I have an 'off-the-wall' theory about these super tornadoes that I literally stumbled upon at the Museum of Natural History in D.C.. I'll PM you about it this week.

JoMo...prayers for you. You'll see on the thread that late Sunday (early Monday AM) I posted some pics as Iowahawk, myself and others were trying to determine if you were in the path of the storm. Someone found pictures of snow you posted from Easternuswx, I believe, and then we were able to use Google Maps to somewhat identify your house. I'll delete any/all info I posted that you want me to delete. Thanking God that you're alright. Praying for you still as I know you're going through a very difficult time. If you can post what the 'on the ground' needs are from your point of view, maybe we can all rally here to help in some way. I'm sorry for your losses and I hope you find comfort in knowing hundreds of people you've never met have been praying for your well being for over 4 days and would have continued to do so until we could find out if you were okay.

TheWXMan... found a great read for you...http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JAS2686.1 Agrees that windspeeds slow down with debris, but suggests kinetic energy could still be magnified. Can you take a look at that great study and let me know what you think? I think that the exponentially increasing kinetic energy within a debris field can change drastically with even the slightest uptick in the mass of each item of debris...i.e. going from a cornfield to a forrest.

I think you're 100% correct. My point was that in order to really get people thinking, historical references aren't going to hit home close enough for most Americans. That's why I sarcastically implied we should just go ahead and call it the worst tornado ever (or some super-sensational headline similar). Luckily, no royal wedding this week and TV programs are done with most finales. So, we might see sustained MSM coverage of tornadoes for at least a couple more days than normal.

Since intensity isn't the comparison (the 'EF' scale is the same in both cases), I'd call it an equally monsterish but more visibile tornado. They're ALL the same at the core with windspeeds, for instance if say Jarrell were to have precipitation and hit Northern Alabama or Central MS, it would be a much different looking tornado. Alabama is relatively flatter than Georgia and relatively even with forest density. Add trees and clay based soil...you get opacity. Light can't get through because clay and trees are being engulfed by the twister. In Jarrell the tornado ravaged a harder and less damp soil base - observed since light was easier to travel through the debris field and we saw a more 'visibile' tornado. Assuming both have the same precipitation.... My hypothesis is that and EF-5 tornado in parts of MO, AR, MS, AL, GA, TN, LA with equal windspeeds and equal precipitation would cause far more damage in those states than if the same exact tornado were to hit OK, KS, IA, TX, IN, IL. You have a higher potential for kinetic energy (KE) in a cubed foot of an AL tornado's debris field since there a higher potential for more debris to occupy that cubed foot. I would actually argue it's EXPONENTIALLY higher. When the cubed foot of KE hits a building in AL versus OK, the building in AL is sustaining a more significant impact by that cubed foot of KE. You can observe this with your blender. If you put strawberries and milk into a blender and blend them - you get a smoothie. If you put strawberries into a blender with five pieces of ice, you get a smootie - AND you observe LOUD cracking/smashing/tearing/destroying of the ice. That destruction of the ice you hear is the combined impact of each piece of ice's KE colliding with one another. Same speed, but the smoothie has a more dense debris field when you add the ice (my analogy for 'trees') with higher kinetic energy and more destructive force in a relative area.

Hoosier - I'm talking about % of trees relative to a square mile area. Of course there are trees in Oklahoma, but... Surely that data exists. A quick topographical glance into Google Earth can also verify. Or, here's a study: http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/194 Look at the forestation density (near the end of the .PDF) of Alabama versus Oklahoma. The PDF is a good glance through, and you'll notice a picture and a table.

I would honestly rather them say "OMG - WORST TORNADO EVERR RECORDED ON EARTH" and have that be the entire article with any of the devastating pictures from Joplin. Seriously. If that were the headline in the paper or on news websites for a week, maybe people would FINALLY start paying attention! We can't make most Americans like us, so maybe we should just translate into phrases and sentences they understand?

Most would rather be the 'Mayor' of a local coffee shop or pizza place on 'Foursquare' for their mobile device instead of paying $250 and then figuring out just HOW to use GR2AE. Now, if we made GR2AE significantly 'dumber' and basically called it 'Tornado Tracker,' and I mean REALLLLY easy, we might have a shot. I don't think the market is there for that type of development (and not to knock any/all weather software products out there currently) - they're top notch. Maybe the NWS will buy Gibson Ridge and make a mobile, dumbed down version of GR2AE available for all to use on their devices and peg it to their GPS. If only we could make that happen...

Sadly, everyone, nobody is going to pay attention nationally aside from 'next-day' news coverage or whatever pops up on their Yahoo Messenger newspage that opens up when they open messenger upon arriving at work. I'm sure this is why they'll upgrade Joplin to an EF-5 tomorrow so the 'next-day' press parade/lurkers doesn't go out to the 'sensational EF-5.' The boots on the ground are in rescue/recovery mode and you had better imagine there would be 10x more folks in Joplin, MO tomorrow if it were rated an EF-5 today than will be in Joplin, MO on Wednesday if it's upgraded to an EF-5 tomorrow. Same reason the pretty blonde that goes missing gets wall to wall coverage on the news while ten other girls go missing without a mention. The news is still, at the core, driven to bring in revenue (not that all it's reporters/staff feel that way). Until someone sustains coverage in the MSM or a big political figure (or President) takes advocacy to realize tornadoes ARE a risk to national security, those in the affected areas, we weather geeks and good-hearted volunteers are really the only folks that will be paying attention here. This is why I've said that although Stormchasers is a total drama-fest on The Discovery Channel to most weather fans, it's probably doing more to attract attention to Tornadoes than nearly anything else. If the government provided tax breaks to any employer who allowed their employees to go assist with these natural disasters, maybe most hard-working Americans would be able to step outside of the day-to-day haze of a Monday - Friday job and join in the effort to make a difference. Now, millions of people would watch SevereStudios on Comcast or DirecTV (or ChaserTV for that matter) if they only knew it existed and video quality was slightly upgraded. That would be a way to increase exposure/interest in SevereWX. For business reasons, they'll get the revenue. For our reasons, we'll have some access to that revenue to actually try and help save lives. Sorry for the long post, but that's my take on why more Americans know about Snookie or the Kardashians than know about severe weather and it's threat.

A lack of trees over a broad area. Two reasons supporting that hypothesis: 1) Visibility. Monster tornadoes cannot be identified as monster tornadoes if you have three or even five trees within your close proximity. You see a giant black cloud that might appear as a squall line...and it's a giant tornado instead 2) Thousand Pound Missiles: Trees become hundreds or even thousands of 10 lb. to 2-5 ton projectiles that fly 150 - 200 MPH through the air in multiple directions. If a tree penetrates a brick wall, the bricks then become part of a giant 200MPH floating blender. If a tree compromises the foundation of a home, air can then penetrate/lift the home. This is why we've seen more deaths in the SE tornadoes and now Joplin. Look at any 'before' shot of Joplin and you'll see trees everywhere. I'd imagine we'd identify that the most east points of these city areas that have been destroyed have been hit by not just trees in their yard...but trees from a mile back, then the trees from 1/2 mile back and then the trees from 500 yards back...etc. Greensburg/Parkersburg also had several trees throughout their towns.

Really sad story on Piers Morgan... live phone interview with an attorney in Joplin - Aunt posted on Facebook "Oh my God" before it hit. Both his Aunt/Uncle passed away in this storm. This is tragic, and technology is allowing us too eerily communicate with those directly in the path of storms. Do you all know if any IT forensic studies were done in Tuscaloosa with recovered cell phones/cameras? I imagine there are quite a few videos from victims of these storms that we never end up seeing because they don't make it. Think of how many folks like the 'Duarte' Tuscaloosa video cap probably also recorded, but unfortunately fell victim to the storm as it jarred or turned directly at them...

My International Biz teacher from China had 7 patents on dialysis machines... eventually left the science side when sales VPs/COs of said med tech sales firms were banking on his invention. He left and got an MBA in London around the age of 35, then he went to another med-tech firm to be the COO... Millions later, he definitely insisted we take his later route (business), sooner. IMO, the OP needs to understand its not a great life to be a met (or any type of science) if you are even going to introduce the idea of financial compensation into the decision-making process. Go into the private sector with your ideas and your met degree and make a ton of money...I have only a business background and I follow weather as a hobby. If the NWS provides my business needs with as much free info as I need, of course the market for 'mets' is low... Show my business how you can provide me with something my tax dollars don't, and I'll pay you what your value prop is worth. IMO, the OP is backwards. The state of affairs is perfect for people to innovate, create and discover in met....instead of working in a local weather office cranking out forecasts, you are creating new ideas and advancing technology. It couldn't be a better time to have a degree in met, actually. The internet is making people far more in tune with weather, and there are enormous opportunities to enjoy a successful career in nearly every industry by having a degree in met... What other factor, besides weather, does everyone in the world have to factor in to their daily plans in some way, shape or form? That's why I tell the sales team I manage to bring up weather if they're having a tough time breaking the ice with a client - it never fails. using Tapatalk

I didn't clearly state my point... so allow me to do so here. The weather behind this event cannot be compared to the weather from 1974. It's not a discussion that's relevant or adds value to the trauma and carnage that happened yesterday. If you want to say the weather system in 74' was more widespread - that's accurate. And, the energy behind my original response to you was meant to say 'bring this elsewhere.' Any post that tries to compare a historic event to the events that unfolded in the last three days isn't really giving the respect to what happened and what's still happening. Why bring that in here when your knowledge could clearly analyze, compare and dissect the events that happened THIS year - not 1974. Let's give this some time before we look back to comparing any part of this to 74.' More value in looking at what's going on today... It's just my opinion.

Image 20 is too much for words. I would hope before publishing this picture that the photographer identified if the victim in the red car had already been removed from the red car. If not, this is not something the photographer should NOT post online. Clearly there was a life-taking or life threatening serious injury within this car.

This is not a met perspective. F5 in the 1970s is to '_____' on the Enhanced Fujita scale? How much knowledge did those folks surveying damage in 1974 have compared to what they have now? In every industry, we are light years ahead of where we were in 1974. To say an F5 tornado in the 70s has any relevance to how a tornado is rated today (if comparing intensities), is short-sighted - and irrelevant. I would think the met point of view here would actually argue opposite your point. Unless you can run a GRLevelx scan of the 74 outbreak using today's Doppler's and computer technology, and THEN go survey the damage with homes built exactly the same, from the same building materials...Why even bring up the Fujita intensity rating of something that happened over 35 years ago and relate it to how well the two systems stack-rank met-wise against one another?

All... I'm seeing a lot of slaps with debris surrounding a barren slab in the Cartersville, GA aerial damage surveys... http://www.myfoxatla...-20110427-am-sd Can someone with a little more professional POV on EF-intensity/scale give a hypothesis surrounding projected EF-scale for the Cartersville tornado? This is far worse damage than Murfreesboro, TN (rated EF-4) because JUST the slab remains on many of these homes.... Probably not as wide as Greensburg (maybe so), but definitely the same 'slab only' profile with some of the damage I'm seeing at the above link.

Good morning all... I compiled the below list last night for everyone's reference... Tuscaloosa: http://vimeo.com/22970879 Tuscaloosa http://www.twitvid.com/93O7M http://www.twitvid.com/4W6PU Birmingham: Cullman County http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U1asLiDYB0&feature=player_embedded MS [/url]MS: Arkansas: Chatt, TN:

All - Georgia usually delays their reports somewhat... You're going to see a significant number of tornadoes 20-40 added to these totals. I assume we'll also see the same case with fatalities. I will go to sleep now and pray I'm wrong...unfortunately scanner radio reports this evening over GA tell me I have a lot of praying to go do.

Is the cell near Union, West Virginia still producing (question 1)? QUESTION 2: IS THIS THE SAME CELL THAT HIT CATOOSA, GA??? What's the longest track on record? This would double it, I'm thinking? Or, do we think the Tusc, Birm, Rome, Jasper (now into VA) cell retained it's track? Just an observation.