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ouamber

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    MO/KS/AR/OK 2019-2020 Winter Wonderland Discussion

    in Central/Western States

    Posted

    AFD TUL 

    Attention then turns to the wintry weather potential on Saturday.
Model solutions change the track of the upper storm system with
each run. One of the extended models brings the upper low well
south of its previous track, while another model brings the upper
low over Tulsa. This solution would keep the heaviest snow within
the deformation band north of Tulsa. For now, we have high
confidence that temperatures will be warm enough for all rain
Friday night, with the cold air moving into northeast Oklahoma
early Saturday morning. If the system is a bit slower, with more
of a closed low, there could be a 2-4 hour period of moderate snow
Saturday morning, across portions of northeast Oklahoma. There
will likely be a transition zone of a rain/snow mix, or snow with
sleet mixing in. By Saturday afternoon, it should be cold enough
for all snow, but the forcing for ascent will also be departing
the area, which will limit the time for accumulating snow given
current forecast data.

This airmass will be the coldest of the season, and combined with
strong northwest winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour, wind chill
values in the single digits are likely by Saturday night and
Sunday morning. In areas where we get accumulating snow, the wind
could cause blowing and drifting. Precipitation moves out quickly
on Saturday night, but Sunday will be cold with highs in the 20s
and 30s. Another chance for wintry precipitation arrives by
Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, just beyond this forecast.
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