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19 minutes ago, schoeppeya said:

Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning.


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Do you remember the Tulsa "Donut Hole" last year?! lol where it was snowing all around Tulsa but never in Tulsa?! That was the absolute worst and depressing! I can deal with 4 inches, if that ends up verifying for Tulsa. My hubby has about a quarter of an inch of ice on his truck windows underneath the snow, which by far, makes this "storm" much more dangerous.

Too much sleet and freezing rain in midtown Tulsa! This SUCKS! Southbound HWY 75 is closed near the Tulsa/Okmulgee county line. Several semis have collided.

The NAM is much farther north. When should we pay attention to it? 

The NW shift has struck again, LOL! Never fails! Looks like this storm will be too north for Tulsa and places east. Maybe the next one?

My tantrum the other day must have worked! Absolutely perfect snow! We have about 7 inches here on the south side of Tulsa! Soooo happy! And so are my Pyrenees this morning. Our conversation: 

Me: "Walker, Missy...come inside!"

Them: "Did she say something. Don't hear a thing!" LOL

Starting to feel depression! Tulsa has gotten the shaft for several years now! This storm goes bonkers in Kansas and Missouri and the storm later this week is gonna go bonkers for Texas! Talk about bad luck...I'm still so bitter about Tulsa's "Donut Hole" last year! (Sorry for Debbie downer post) I was certain this would be a good pattern for us...unbelievable!

We have NOTHING at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa! There was another donut of warm air directly over the city and it never really dipped below 34. Absolutely busted for the city of Tulsa again!  I think this is Winter Cancel for me!

Gosh, GFS, Icon, and Canadian look nothing alike for the Sunday/Monday storm! 

Hey Everybody!! Been a long time since we've had something good to watch!! Love reading all your posts! Fingers crossed for Tulsa..we've been screwed the last several years! Don't even get me started on that "Magical Snowless Donut Hole" over Tulsa last year! LOL! (Insert facepalm) Hopefully we can all cash in with the cold air in place over the next few weeks! But Gosh...that 64 degrees outside feels pretty darn amazing right now! RIP to my plants tonight!

We've lost power and my front trees are gone. Firetruck just came down my road to clear a car that got blown into a tree in front of our house. Ambulance is here now..hopefully they are okay! 

Sirens going off in Tulsa right now. Wind reports from 77-102 mph just out to our west.

https://fb.watch/inP6Ci2bOe/?mibextid=ykz3hl

https://fb.watch/inPrA8S_iq/?mibextid=ykz3hl

71st and Tulsa Hills is now closed. It's still pouring sleet!

The lightning and thundering sleet in Tulsa is incredible right now! Very heavy! Roads are covered at my location just a mile south of I-44 and Lewis.

Thundersleet in Tulsa right now!

Happy for everyone else! However, I'm not particularly excited about the ice storm potential next week! This most likely will verify!

It's actually hilarious at this point! I'm actually cheering on the donut hole! How long can Tulsa go snowless! Just incredible at how bad this BUST was!

I don't know what happened, but Mike Collier just did a live Facebook and stated Tulsa will be lucky to get an inch. We were in a donut hole, literally. I haven't seen a flake today. I guess the storm tracked too far south??  Any ideas what happened besides being too warm? Was is dry air?

It's 38 in Tulsa right now. I'm not sure we are gonna make 4 inches right now.

Oz GFS definitely pulled north. (to my untrained eye) I've got family in Morris, about 35 miles south-east of Tulsa...they look to be near the bullseye. I live at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa, about a mile south of I-44. I would thrilled with 3 inches, but if we can squeak out 6?? Man, that would be amazing! 

18z NAM 3K. Still snowing throughout much of the area at the end of 60hrs. 10.1 ratio is definitely too high, but probably more like 6.1 or 7.1 isn't too crazy.

^^GFS says Oklahoma is closed!

I think I'd be a little more excited with a strong HP in the northern plains.

Still so far apart.... where that low tracks is HUGE! GFS tracks north and east, Euro goes south, and Canadian is sort of in the middle. Hmmmmm interesting!

Canada:

American:

Euro:

^^^Good 'ol Mikey Morgan never disappoints!

Hey Everybody! Glad to be model watching and snow dreaming with you all again!! Just glanced at a few of the 00z runs...eek! I'm not a fan of blistering cold with no snow! Lol! So, here's hoping we get a 2011 type of storm this year! Hate to see all the cold air wasted though!